Like any stereotypical rock band or movie franchise, I’m going to try to repeat success by sticking with the same formula. I’m referring to last week’s post about The Next Chris Davis, which led to a number of great suggestions for next year’s breakout players. This week, while I still have your attention, I want to focus on the other side: players who you expect to take a step (or two, or three) backwards in 2014. I titled this post after Josh Hamilton’s 2013 performance, but it really could have been named after any number of disappointing performances. So, who do you expect to be a bust next year? And while you’re at it, can you think of any bands with a second album that was better than their debut or a movie franchise that had a better sequel than the original? I’m looking forward to all of your thoughts, which will provide me with some topics to endure the cold, winter months that some call the offseason…
I think that busts generally come from two areas: 1) Players who performed better than they usually do during the previous season and are falling back to their normal level of production, and 2) Players who have had their skills erode due to injuries or age and finally see their numbers take a hit. Mr. Hamilton fits both of these areas. Despite having his healthiest season in ages, his current .245/.301/.431 line pales in comparison to his past several years. A 200 point drop in OPS from the previous season is quite dramatic and, I’ll admit, more than I expected. It felt like one of those years where you wait for what seems like an inevitable hot streak that never comes. I’m going out on a limb here, but I’m pretty sure Waiting for Godot was written to predict Hamilton’s 2013 season. Samuel Beckett, Fantasy Baseball Soothsayer? Anyway, I’ll have a tough time projecting Hamilton for much more than an .800 OPS in the future. Sadly, the same could be said for his teammate, Albert Pujols.
Hopefully this leads to a good list of and discussion about guys to avoid next season. And, while I’m mostly looking for busts in 2014, feel free to name the busts of 2013. You know who I’m talking about: the guys who completely ruined your team. This is a safe space, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, so vent to your heart’s content. I won’t mind and I might even be entertained. Who knows? Maybe – just maybe – some of the 2013 busts could end up being 2014 values…
Tom Jacks is sporadically on Twitter @votetomjacks
