In recent posts, I used the results of our 2013 Razzball Commenter Leagues (based on 64 12-team mixed leagues with daily roster changes and unlimited pickups) to show:
- The end of season value of a team’s hitters explains about 70% of a team’s final season Hitting Standings Points
- The PROJECTED value of a team’s hitters before the draft explains on average only 15% of a team’s final season Hitting Standings Points (with a range in 2013 from 2% to 37%)
- Thus, about 55% of a team’s hitting success is driven by deviations from what was projected and what actually happened (drafter prescience may be part of this but it is likely driven by good/bad luck in hitter performance and health)
So this leaves 30% of Hitting Standings Points that could be attributed to a manager’s in-season moves.
Inspired by one of our commenters (initials SF), I thought of a way to reduce the size of that 30% black box. While estimating the quality of a manager’s in-season moves is very complicated, estimate the quantity of a manager’s moves is EZPZ. That would be interesting…..but what kind of guidance would that provide? Making roster moves just for the sake of it is a waste of time and if you, our loyal readers, are going to waste your time, we prefer you do it on our site vs. your league site.Please, blog, may I have some more?