One of the biggest trends in baseball over the last few seasons has been the decline of stolen bases throughout the league. This has had major ramifications on fantasy baseball and has left owners frequently chasing SBs. The main reason for the decline has been a league-wide “understanding” that without an expected success rate of around 67%, a stolen base attempt has a negative run value. This is a huge part of why the league wants to use larger bases in an attempt to increase the SB success rate. This is extremely important to keep in mind when looking to see if players will repeat their propensity for running in the next season. So who were some notable players who failed to reach the efficiency standards needed to be a prolific base stealer?
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| Name | SB | CS | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Alford | 5 | 6 | 45% |
| Andrew Benintendi | 8 | 9 | 47% |
| Rafael Devers | 5 | 5 | 50% |
| Corey Dickerson | 6 | 5 | 55% |
| Brandon Nimmo | 5 | 4 | 56% |
| Eric Hosmer | 5 | 4 | 56% |
| Willy Adames | 5 | 4 | 56% |
| Willson Contreras | 5 | 4 | 56% |
| Hunter Dozier | 5 | 4 | 56% |
| Juan Soto | 9 | 7 | 56% |
| Joey Wendle | 8 | 6 | 57% |
| Victor Robles | 8 | 6 | 57% |
| Nick Solak | 7 | 5 | 58% |
| Jarred Kelenic | 6 | 4 | 60% |
- Anthony Alford topping this list makes me a bit sad. He was one of my favorite super-deep targets but with this lack of efficiency, he may not run nearly as much as I had hoped. Thankfully the Pirates don’t really anticipate being competitive so maybe he will still have a green light
- Benintendi has not had efficiency issues previously in his career but he still may see a drop in attempts paired with improved efficiency allowing him to keep double-digit totals
- In 2019 Devers had similar issues with efficiency and then did not attempt a steal in 2020. While many people are not anticipating a ton of steals from him in 2022, I think five may even be a stretch
- Nimmo is one guy who I do not anticipate repeating SB totals, Buck Showalter’s Orioles did not run often so I would expect his attempts to drop significantly
- Soto is the next name that really stands out, he attempted a ton of steals but the efficiency wasn’t there, I think ten bags might be tough for him in 2022
- Kelenic’s lack of efficiency early in his career is a bit of a concern going forward but he is too talented to continue to struggle like that. I think he improves over time
SB Rate does tend to fluctuate between seasons but there is some validity to it impacting attempts in the following season. If you are looking at these individuals to once again attempt double-digit steals, I would think twice before making that bet.
