Last week I joined a league called The Devil’s Rejects. You’ve probably seen posts on this league over at FanGraphs recently. In fact, it must have subconciously rubbed off on me because that is a very FanGraphsy title. Rejects is a 20-team dynasty with 45-man rosters where we keep 28 forever. It’s full of industry talent from sites like FG and Baseball Prospectus. Razzball’s own J-FOH has a team and we’ve already made our first trade with no blood, sweat, or tears spilled. The squad I took over was one that had cycled through a couple of owners in the previous two or three years. So yeah, it’s a bit of a project. But the point of this post is that there’s one name on this roster I have absolutely no idea what to do with, and I’m wondering if other dynasty geeks out there are faced with the same problem. It’s Shohei Otani, the Japanese pitcher who’s tearing it up in the NPB.
First, the vitals on Otani. He’s 21 and arguably the best pitcher in the NPB already. He throws mid-to-upper 90s gas along with a splitter, slider, and a slow curve. He struck out 196 batters in 160 innings last season to go along with a 2.24 ERA and a 2.6 BB/9. So yeah, he’s good. Really good. And young…which is like catnip in dynasty leagues. I mean, FanGraphs just posted an article called The Best Young Pitcher In The World in which he was prominently featured. So what’s the problem Mikey? Just keep this cat. Here’s the problem, my italicized friend…he’s still in Japan. Unless something changes with posting rules, he’s probably going to stay in Japan for the next three years. It’s essentially like taking a high-upside 19-year-old from the 2016 draft – it’s going to be a while. I already hate pitchers in dynasty leagues, and this is compounded by the fact that Otani isn’t going to help me anytime soon. Even though I’m rebuilding, is this guy worth burning a roster slot for three years? I could cycle through three MLB-ready prospects in that same time frame – albeit without the lofty ceiling. Here’s where it gets even trickier…there’s a chance MLB changes the rules again and suddenly presto change-o Otani gets posted sooner. Kazuto Yamazaki wrote about this very thing in his DynastyGuru profile of Otani earlier this fall:
So, here’s the biggest question. When does this high-octane hurler head to the big leagues? Under the current CBA, it’s hard to see the Nippon Ham Fighters post him earlier than the 2019 off-season. Though there might be a major change in the posting system after the 2016 season. If the new rules favor NPB clubs, we may expect a sooner timetable for him.
Ugh. So there’s a chance I hold him and he doesn’t surface until 2019, but there’s also a chance I let him loose and find out he’s coming to MLB for 2017. I’m not going to fret over this, but it is kind of a fascinating situation for dynasty owners. If your team was rebuilding and you essentially had Jose Fernandez part two in your hand (but couldn’t use him for three years) would he be worth holding as part of a 28-man roster? Do you cut him and hope to redraft? Do you reassess your life because you just wrote 600 words on Shohei Otani at 3AM while partaking in vaporwave and Totino’s pizza rolls? Hmmm…
