Welcome back, my friends, to another installment of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players.
This week I am circling back to a player I featured in April of 2025: Hayden Wesneski. Acquired during the offseason ahead of the 2025 season, the Astros hoped to have the right-handed pitcher be a key member of the starting rotation.
Those plans were dashed, however, after six starts when Wesneski went down with a right elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery. Since returning to the rotation, Wesneski has become a key member of the starting rotation. While he is 28 years old, you can never have enough pitching, and he is just now in his prime.
So let’s take a look at Wesneski.
Career Statistics
| YEAR | LEVEL | W-L | G-GS | IP | H | ERA | WHIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-19 | NCAA | 25-9 | 51-44 | 288.0 | 276 | 3.56 | 1.222 | 2.4 | 7.0 |
| 2019-26 | Minors | 20-16 | 84-60 | 324.2 | 278 | 3.44 | 1.149 | 2.6 | 9.8 |
| 2022 | Cubs | 3-2 | 6-4 | 33.0 | 24 | 2.18 | 0.939 | 1.9 | 9.0 |
| 2023 | Cubs | 3-5 | 34-11 | 89.1 | 82 | 4.63 | 1.276 | 3.2 | 8.4 |
| 2024 | Cubs | 3-6 | 28-7 | 67.2 | 56 | 3.86 | 1.138 | 2.8 | 8.9 |
| 2025 | Astros | 1-3 | 6-6 | 32.0 | 29 | 4.50 | 1.094 | 1.7 | 8.2 |
| 2026 | Astros | 5-1 | 8-8 | 45.2 | 33 | 3.35 | 1.029 | 2.8 | 7.1 |
Tampa Bay selected Hayden Wesneski in the 33rd round of the 2016 draft out of Cy-Fair High School, which is located in Greater Houston. He opted not to sign with the Rays and attended nearby Sam Houston State University in Huntsville, where he quickly established himself as the ace of the staff. Each season he lowered his ERA, going from 3.93 as a freshman to 3.50 his sophomore year and down to 3.32 his junior season.
The Yankees selected Wesneski in the 6th round of the 2019 draft and developed him in their system as a starter before trading him to the Cubs for Scott Effross in August of 2022. He made five appearances in the minors for the Cubs before being recalled to the majors and appeared in six games, four of which were starts.
The Cubs used Wesneski as both a starter and reliever, appearing in 68 games and making 22 starts and going 9-13 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.168 WHIP while posting a 2.8 BB/9 rate and 8.7 K/9 rate. During the 2025 offseason, Wesneski was traded to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade.
The Tools
- Sweeper
Hayden Wesneski has changed his repertoire since 2025, with the biggest change coming in his increased usage of the sweeper and dropping his curveball. Last season, he threw the sweeper 25% of the time, and now his usage is up to 30%, while his curveball went from 8% usage to being thrown only 2 times.
The change has been successful. Opponents have only a .125 average and .175 SLG against the sweeper with a 39.2% whiff rate. Thrown at an average speed of 81.1 mph, Wesneski creates massive movement with the pitch as it averages 19.7 inches of break and 3.6 inches of drop. Compared to other right-handed hitters, the sweeper has 6.2 more inches of break and 4.6 more inches of drop. And it is a pitch he uses against both lefties and righties (29% vs. lefties, 31% vs. righties)
- 4-Seamer
With the increased usage of the sweeper, not only has the curve disappeared, but Wesneski is relying less on his 4-seamer. Thrown 39% of the time last year, the usage rate is down to 24% this year. While he is not using the pitch as much, it is still a very good pitch, as hitters have a .191/.277 AVG/SLG against the pitch. It seems that with less usage, Wesneski is having more success with the pitch. Last year, hitters had a .295/.523 line against the pitch, and in 2024 and 2023 those numbers were .257/.469 and .327/.636.
- Sinker
Wesneski uses this pitch 31% of the time against righties (9% vs. lefties), but it has been an average pitch, at best. While he has not allowed a homer on the pitch, hitters have a .308 average and .538 SLG, the worst numbers compared to any of his pitches. Despite the numbers, he is actually throwing this pitch 75 more often than last year.
- Cutter
Outside of his sinker, this is Wesneski’s second-worst pitch, as hitters have a .259/.519 slash line with two home runs out of the seven hits. Yet this is a pitch he is also throwing more this year compared to last year, with the usage rate up 4%.
- Change
I’m not the Astros’ pitching coach, but I’d have Wesneski throw this pitch even more than he is now. First, hitters have a .182/.182 slash line against the pitch. Second, they have a 38.6% whiff rate and a 27% strikeout rate with six strikeouts in 22 at-bats. Wesneski gets hitters to pound this pitch into the ground as the launch angle is -1% (that is negative one) with an AEV of 84.1 mph.
The Results
- The “Bad”
His first four starts featured a few bumps in the road as he went 2-1 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 22.2 innings of work. He did have some bad luck as his FIP was 3.71 and his BABIP was .318. But there was still some good news when it came to those first four starts – Wesneski didn’t appear to be suffering any effects from his surgery. He pitched into the sixth inning or beyond in three of those four starts and had a decent 7.14 K/9 rate. Physically, he was fine, and mentally he appeared to be fine as well as he attacked hitters with all of his pitches.
- The “Good”
Those first four starts, in which the Astros went 3-1, have led to a fantastic run over Wesneski’s last four starts. The team has gone 4-0 in those starts while he is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA (3.14 FIP) and 0.739 WHIP. That high BABIP has dropped to .155. The biggest difference over his last four starts compared to his first is his hits allowed. In those first four starts, he allowed 23 hits in his 22.2 innings. In his last 23 innings of work, he has allowed only 10 hits.
Before allowing three runs to the Phillies in six innings of work Tuesday night, with all three runs coming in the sixth inning, he allowed only one run in 17 innings of work against the Athletics, Yankees, and White Sox. His start against Chicago was outstanding as he allowed only one hit and two walks to go with five strikeouts in seven innings.
- In the end…
This is what I said about Hayden Wesneski in April of 2025: “The chances of Hayden Wesneski being an ace are small, and he likely isn’t really going to be a No. 2 pitcher. So while his ceiling is not very high, he has a very high floor, meaning he should be a very good No. 3 pitcher. He has six solid pitches, allowing him to attack both right-handers and left-handers equally well.
Wesneski is a pitcher who should find consistent success in Houston. The organization has a long history of turning “average” pitchers into above average starters, and it already looks like the tweaks they have made with him are paying off. You would be wise to go after Wesneski and then keep him for several more years after this season, as he is an up-and-coming dynasty player.”
Hayden Wesneski still is not the ace of the staff, and as long as Hunter Brown takes the mound for the Astros, he likely won’t be. But he is pitching better than a No. 3 pitcher right now and has the talent and the tools to establish himself as a No. 2 pitcher, exceeding the expectations I placed on him in April of 2025.
He doesn’t blow people away, but he is outstanding with his sequencing and has command of all of his pitches. Thanks in large part to his sweeper, Wesneksi has a career-high 35.9% chase percentage this year
This is a pitcher who should be targeted this offseason as dynasty owners look to upgrade their pitching staffs.
Thanks!
Thank you for reading, and come back again next week.
