Everyone has got “their guys.” You see this all the time these days: Here’s a list of “my guys.” Tristan Casas‘ has been appearing on several, and guess what, here he is on mine as well. I wanted to pass on him due to the coverage… but I just couldn’t! Let’s see what someone recently said about him:
“Through May and June, he conducted a siege on wormdom by hitting the ball into the dirt 42% of the time, despite a refocused effort to get around on pitches he liked sooner, leading to a boost in his pull rate. He was making “better” contact but not with the desired results. But now, in the month of July he has turned those grounders into line drives and is now hitting them to center field. Casas is hitting 50% of his balls in play to center—a sign that his adjustments are finally bearing fruit.”
I typically don’t want to piggyback on someone else’s work; but, that was me! I brought him to your attention in July last year following a 2 home run night in Fenway against Max Scherzer. You can read the rest of it here. Basically, with each passing month last season from April through July, Tristan Casas was improving. He just kept getting better in all the ways you want a hitter too. Dropping K rate, rising walk rate—all the good things I pointed out above.
Well, with the 2023 season now in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look back at how it all played out.
| Monthly | BB% | K% | HR | AVG | OBP | OPS | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 14.3% | 24.7% | 7 | 0.348 | 0.442 | 1.199 | 216 |
| Aug | 14.0% | 22.0% | 5 | 0.294 | 0.400 | 0.918 | 145 |
| Sept | 14.0% | 26.3% | 3 | 0.265 | 0.368 | 0.858 | 132 |
He cooled off a bit after a torrid July but was still very good. The thing that makes me the most happy is that he maintained his walk rate while keeping his K rate below 30%. Now for a bit of perspective, let’s zoom out and compare his first half to his second half.
| Monthly | BB% | K% | HR | AVG | OBP | OPS | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 13.7% | 26.1% | 9 | 0.225 | 0.330 | 0.727 | 97 |
| 2nd Half | 14.2% | 23.7% | 15 | 0.317 | 0.417 | 1.034 | 175 |
When we look at the grouped time periods, we see just how big of a difference his improvements made to the bottom line. In the first half, he was barely MLB average, which is not awful. There are many who dream of such feats. However, that .225 batting average wasn’t doing anyone good. Then, you move the second half: He raised the walk rate, like we discussed, and dropped his K rate. His power went up, his average went up, and as a result, he was 75% better than a league-average hitter. I have started to like the wRC+ (weighted runs created) more recently as a way of gauging just how productive a hitter was compared to his peers. Allstar quality hitting usually starts around +30% or 130 wRC+.
Moving on, how did that translate into his batted balls?
| Monthly | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB | Pull% | Cent% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 20.0% | 38.3% | 41.7% | 12.3% | 44.6% | 35.4% | 35.4% |
| 2nd Half | 22.3% | 34.6% | 43.1% | 26.8% | 30.8% | 47.7% | 39.2% |
It ended up rebalancing some in the end, but some of his grounders were exchanged for some line drives. But the biggest improvement of note that remained… hitting power to centerfield. His distribution to center made an increase of over 12% and a hard contact rate that climbed to almost 40%. Lining up his contact better then became a 26.8% home run conversion rate which puts him in company with all the premier power hitters.
Alright, let’s land this plane. In the second half, can you tell me the top 5 hitters by wRC+? You think our boy is on that list?
| Name | PA | HR | RBI | AVG | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 201 | 12 | 24 | 0.308 | 0.635 | 183 |
| Matt Olson | 320 | 25 | 67 | 0.321 | 0.649 | 181 |
| Mookie Betts | 297 | 13 | 45 | 0.347 | 0.570 | 180 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 326 | 20 | 51 | 0.345 | 0.613 | 178 |
| Triston Casas | 211 | 15 | 38 | 0.317 | 0.617 | 175 |
Of course he is! That’s why this article is here. That list is incredibly good company to be in don’t you think? One player that didn’t quite make the list who was also having a big second-half resurgence he compares closely to: Bryce Harper.
| Name | BB% | K% | AVG | Pull% | Center% | Oppo% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triston Casas | 14.2% | 23.7% | .317 | 30.8% | 47.7% | 21.5% | 39.2% |
| Bryce Harper | 15.7% | 21.3% | .296 | 40.0% | 41.1% | 18.9% | 44.9% |
That profile looks awfully similar. And for what it’s worth, I think Tristan Casas has many of the same traits that has made Harper as good as he has been, but more than likely to a lesser extent–but still very valuable. This is more illustrative of an approach and style that has been successful for a long time in the MLB, proving that Casas could be on his way to a very productive season, and hopefully, career.
At a current ADP of around 109, I like Tristan Casas a lot in that second tier of first basemen to a good shot at giving us a 30 HR season and in the rebuilt Boston lineup I see him having ample opportunities for counting stats and contributing a positive average around .270ish in the process to make him well worth the price tag. Happy drafting.
If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.
