The calendar has flipped to June and the Razzball Commenter Leagues are in full swing.  This is also the time of year where I like to take a look at which RCL teams are killing us in win-rate and which teams have just had some crap luck in the win column.  Now, Rudy will tell you that Wins are actually predictable as shown by his Ombotsman.  While the data and the bots may tell you this, as a human, it still seems like they are luck-based, do they not?  Today we’re going to take a look at “win luck”.  There’s no doubt it takes some luck to win a fantasy baseball league.  Injury luck is probably the biggest factor in winning a league.  As good a manager as we think we are, if your number one pick goes down for the year, you’re going to be at a disadvantage.  That’s just common sense. “Win luck” is another area that is seemingly out of our control.  Let’s face it, wins are brutal.  I’m a big proponent of the mantra, “Make your own luck” and I certainly think that can be applied to “win luck”.  “Win luck” is a term often tossed around to describe a team that is raking in the wins and/or a team that can’t seem to buy a win.  Can you make your own luck in regards to wins?  Of course, you can.  You can stream those valuable middle relievers, especially the ones that frequently work multiple innings in the middle of games (Yusmeiro Petit perhaps).  When a lead change occurs, these relievers are typically the benefactors.  It’s no guarantee of course, but it can’t hurt your luck any.  There are other ways to increase your win luck too.  Let’s take a look at another big one as well as who is getting lucky and who got lucky this week in the week that was, week 9:

Another nice way to increase your win luck is to borrow a tip from the DFS side of the fantasy baseball landscape and utilize the Vegas odds.  I know not everyone dabbles in DFS waters, but Vegas is a good companion there and in your season-long leagues.  Here’s how to use it.  First, find yourself a website that lists all the Vegas consensus odds for the day.  There are several out there, but I typically run with THIS ONE.  Go ahead and bookmark that for future reference.  If you aren’t familiar with Vegas terminology, you want to look at the “Money Line” which is the number greater than 100 with either a “+” or a “-” in front of it.  This shows you how much you would have to bet on a team to win $100 (in the case of the negative amount) or how much you would win if you bet $100 on a team (in the case of the positive amount).  The negative value indicates the favorite.  So, if a team is a -140 favorite, you would need to bet $140 on them to win $100.  If a team is +140, if you bet $100 on them, you would win $140.  You can start to see where this might come in handy.  Anything over about -140 is pretty good.  Take a look at those odds, check to make sure the over/under (run total) for the game isn’t too huge, use some common sense, or at least some risk/reward management, and stream away.  If you’re a really savvy roto player, you’ve purchased access to the Streamonator where you can filter by day and sort by wins.  There you would see that Matthew Boyd is the player with the best shot at a win today that is available 65% of RCLs.  Chasing wins may seem to some like a fool’s errand, but you can take a couple of steps to make your own luck.

Here are the best (“luckiest”) and worst (“unluckiest”) teams in the RCL universe in terms of win % (Wins/IP * 100):

LUCKY:

# Team League W IP Moves WIN %
4 Disgustipated RCL 2021 (#27) 46 487 69 9.45
11 Team bnrgoalie RCL 2021 (#1) 48 518 140 9.27
112 Vegans ECFBL 37 401 140 9.23
41 VottomanEmpire RCL 2021 (#26) 45 494 117 9.11
147 BallBusters RCL 2021 (#11) 44 484 58 9.09
270 Lockdown Heroes RCL 2021 (#6) 41 463 59 8.86
286 Team Winners_DO RCL 2021 (#10) 49 557 0 8.80
18 Stl Squat Cobblers ECFBL 45 520 177 8.65
513 Winnemucca Hobos RCL 2021 (#31) 31 359 0 8.64

UNLUCKY:

# Team League W IP Moves WIN %
545 Nyshogun RCL 2021 (#8) 22 536 34 4.10
516 Dylan Vaughan SCORE-ISH Writers League 21 504 8 4.17
318 Savoy Special RCL 2021 (#5) 22 526 58 4.18
325 Rocky RCL 2021 (#33) 21 476 46 4.41
307 Team tkdc RCL 2021 (#6) 19 419 6 4.53
550 Team bostonyuppie RCL 2021 (#1) 19 413 0 4.60
523 Puk this team RCL 2021 (#6) 23 498 36 4.62
483 Team sipo RCL 2021 (#27) 25 531 62 4.71
280 Team StlPerfectos RCL 2021 (#29) 27 571 35 4.73

Disgustipated from RCL #27 are leading the charge in win luck with 46 Wins in 487 IP, good for an 9.45 win%.  Team bnrgoalie is right behind them with 48 Wins in 518 IP, a 9.27 win%.  Both these teams are in the top 20 overall, with Team bnrgoalie sitting in 11th overall.  STL Squat Cobblers also makes this list in 18th overall and is one of two ECFBLers to make the list.  Nice work so far! 

On the unlucky side, Nyshogun has the fewest wins per innings pitched of any team in the RCLs.  22 Wins in 536 IP is very unlucky.  That’s a 4.1 win%.  536 IP isn’t even behind the pace needed to hit 1400 IP, which limits the time needed for that luck to even out.  That’s just a bad break.

‘PERTY ‘PERTS

Each week we’ll peek in at our resident ‘perts to see who is laying claim to best “expert” RCLer in the land.  We’ll take notes, check the standings and generally stalk them.  The heading is also hyperlink, so feel free to follow along as we go.

Nothing changes at the top of the ‘Perts League standings as Son just continues his dominance.  Coolwhip, the only one to give Son any pressure lost three points this week while Son gained 0.5 and continues to laugh at our feeble attempts to catch him.

The big movings and shakings this week were Cram It showing up to the season.  Cram paired a solid offensive week with a wins, saves and ERA-leading week of pitching to gain a league-best 11 points and get out of last place.  Little victories Cram, little victories.  

Itch lost the most points this week, 5.5 and fell two places to seventh.  Ralph also fell two spots this week to land in last.  Ralph Lifshitz really is dead it seems.

RAZZSLAM STANDINGS UPDATE

Each week we’ll also take a look at the top ten overall standings in our other Razzball sponsored league, the RazzSlam.  This is our NFBC Best Ball league with managers from all across the industry, from content providers to fans and readers just like you.

Much like the ‘Perts League, the top two spots in the RazzSlam remain unchanged for another week with Nicholas Mariano and Yatta holding things down.  Brian Seymour managed to get back into third place this week by leap-frogging Sammy Reid and Joseph Asher.

Donkey Teeth continues to rep Team Razzball in the top ten, keeping sixth place on lockdown.  Ryan Owen also held onto seventh place this week.

Rounding us out, Coolwhip, Zachary Meyer, and Yancy Eaton jumped back into the top ten this week, hitting eighth, ninth, and tenth place respectively.  Coolwhip adds a second member of Team Razzball to the top ten and JKJ is knocking on the door, currently in a tie for 11th.  It was a good week overall for Team Razzball as our very own, Grey Albright was the biggest points-gainer this week with 157 points!

TOP 10

For those too lazy to check the MASTER STANDINGS, I present to you, the current top 10

RK TEAM LEAGUE RCL PTS LG PTS LG INDEX MASTER PTS
1 Son PERTS LEAGUE 108.8 106.5 105 103.7
2 Laura Holt RCL 2021 (#9) 106.5 108.5 100 104
3 Team mpaltrow RCL 2021 (#1) 106 103 104 103.5
4 Disgustipated RCL 2021 (#27) 104.6 102 104 101.4
5 Coolwhip PERTS LEAGUE 102.8 98 105 100.7
6 VottomanEmpire RCL 2021 (#25) 102.6 99.5 105 98.1
7 Team cubbiebluez RCL 2021 (#8) 102.1 101 103 99.5
8 Orlando Calrissians RCL 2021 (#32) 101.7 103 100 101.2
9 FlowersbangsAl waysRoyalmom… RCL 2021 (#36) 100.6 101 101 98.5
10 Team Truss RCL 2021 (#35) 100.6 98.5 104 97.3

Similar to the RazzSlam, the top three spots in the RCL overall standings remain unchanged this week as Son, Laura and Team mpaltrow continue their hold on the podium.

Disgustipated and Coolwhip swapped spots this week in fourth and fifth and Vottoman Empire moved up three spots to sixth.

Team cubbiebluez is the first of a pair of new faces in the top ten this week, jumping up from 21st last week.  You’ll see their name again later on in this update.

Orlando Calrissians falls one spot to eighth and FlowersbangsAl waysRoyalmom… debuts in the top ten, up from 26th last week.  They also appear later on in this update.  Are you sending a trend?

Finally, your’s truly rounds out the top ten.

TRADES

All the trades that have gone down in the past week.  Public ridicule is not only allowed, but encouraged.

DATE LEAGUE DETAILS
5/31/2021 Original Recipe
Johnny Utahs traded Hector Neris & Vidal Brujan to New AL KOHOLIC for Ian Anderson & Mike Moustakas
6/1/2021 RCL #29
Team pgoetz traded Joe Musgrove & Isiah Kiner-Falefa to Athletically Unathletic for Yuli Gurriel, Ian Happ & Matt Chapman
6/3/2021 RCL #27
Team Srbanator traded Mike Trout & Madison Bumgarner to Pachoka PADP for Jacob deGrom
6/3/2021 RCL #36
Team EGONZO95 traded Jack Flaherty & Madison Bumgarner to Pachoka PSAF for Gerrit Cole
6/4/2021 RCL #27
Stl Squat Cobblers traded Will Smith to Team sipo for Sonny Gray
6/4/2021 RCL #29
Athletically Unathletic traded Max Scherzer to 3rd String All-Starz for Whit Merrifield
6/4/2021 RCL #21
Nothing Going traded Yermin Mercedes, Charlie Morton & Ian Kennedy to Straw Dawgs trades for Dylan Moore, Yordan Alvarez & Lance McCullers Jr.
6/5/2021 RCL #25
Trussell Shuffle traded Juan Soto & Tyler O’Neill to Hot Corner for Franmil Reyes & Jacob deGrom
6/5/2021 RCL #18
JKJ traded Brandon Lowe to Team TheFantasyGOAT for Brad Hand
6/6/2021 RCL #18
Suck It traded Sonny Gray & Adalberto Mondesi to Team TheFantasyGOAT for Gavin Lux & Jacob deGrom

I thought it was interesting, especially in a week where I made a move for him, that Jacob deGrom got traded three times this week.  I guess, if you’re going to trade him, now is the time because that ERA has nowhere to go but up, right?  I was struggling for ratios in the league where I traded for him and have managed top threes in runs, HRs, RBIs, and average with Juan Soto not doing much of anything, so why not?  Which deal for deGrom do you think is the best and worst of the bunch?  Personally, I like moving Sonny Gray and an injured Mondesi for him, that’s a bargain and a half!

WEEKLY LEADERS

The best of the best from the week that was.

R – 66 – FlowersbangsAl waysRoyalmom… (RCL 2021 (#36))

HR –23 – Vin Garr (RCL 2021 (#1))

RBIs – 67 – Vegans (ECFBL)

SB – 14 – J&G (RCL 2021 (#25))

AVG – .350 – Team cubbiebluez (RCL 2021 (#8))

K – 105 – Accordion (RCL 2021 (#22))

W – 10 – Game Over (RCL 2021 (#19))

SV –  9 – 4 Teams Tied

ERA (Min. 40 IP) – 0.98 – Dunphys Joint Venture (RCL 2021 (#23)) (in 46 IP)

WHIP (Min. 40 IP) – 0.784 – UnShoed (RCL 2021 (#13)) (in 44.2 IP)

It was a good week for FlowersbangsAl waysRoyalmom…, they set a new runs record and that was enough to push them into the top ten overall for the first time this year.

You’ll see Team cubbiebluez here as well.  Making this weekly list certainly can’t hurt in your efforts to make the top ten.

TEAM OF THE WEEK

Our weekly shout-out to the team that killed it the previous week.

Team: Nothing Going

League: RCL 2021 (#21)

Stats:   AVG: .273, R: 58, HR: 21, RBI: 59, SB: 3

IP: 82, ERA: 3.18, WHIP: 1.195, K: 82, W: 7, SV: 8

Summary: Nothing Going has it all going this week.  The team was right in the thick of things in every offensive category in the weekly leaderboard and was just one off the big tie for the saves lead.  Nothing GOing was led by offensive superstars, Cedric Mullins, Patrick Wisdom, and Eric Haase this week…just like we drew it up.  On the pitching side, Jacob deGrom was a one-man category winner.  Streaming starts from Elieser Hernandez and Kyle Gibson helped too.  Nothing Going even overcame streaming the David Peterson batting practice session on Wednesday.  All that was good for 4.5 league points and a jump from fourth to third, with second now just one point away.  Nice work!

Want to be Matt’s Twitter pal?  That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow him here: @MattTruss

  1. Grey

    Grey says:
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    This was awesome, Truss! Didn’t remember you looking at lucky vs. unlucky before, but truly enjoyed it!

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Thanks Grey! I’m pretty sure I used to do a Wins/GS chart back in the ESPN days, but it’s always fun to look at. Mostly because it’s nice to know my teams where it feels like I can’t get a win from a pitcher to save my life actually aren’t doing that bad compared to some others.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Ah, I forgot, I guess…Don’t know why, but getting cheap wins is the biggest fantasy rush for me…If I grab a MR and I get a vulture win, there’s nothing else like it

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
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          I agree, the streaming homer is nice, but cheap wins those are *chef’s kiss*

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Right?! Haha

  2. everywhereblair

    everywhereblair says:
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    Can we get some love for the teams that thought we were doing the old-style “worst ball” drafts?

    Because I’m in second place in Perts League in that scoring…

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      TBF, you did get Lou Bob’d

  3. Cram It says:
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    The Cramtrain is slowly starting to roll. Choo choo!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You and Geoff are battling for 12th

      • Cram It says:
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        Screw that noise. I’ll be middle of the pack at worst by season’s end. Also, I don’t know who Geoff is. Haha.

        • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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          Screw who, Cram?! Ha, ditto on this Geoff person.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Recovering from that early season train derailment!

  4. Vegans says:
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    Great article, Matt! When looking at Vegas info, do you use Public Consensus info too? If so, how relevant do you find it?

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      I do not, I tend to believe that the people setting those lines know more than the consensus. There’s a reason the casinos are so big in Vegas after all. That said, I’ll lean towards Rudy’s numbers over theirs most of the time.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Also, congrats on all those RBIs!

  5. Vegans says:
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    Yeah, I trust Grey’s info & Rudy’s numbers more too. Thanks re: RBIs… even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.

  6. FrankGrimes says:
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    Whoa ninth overall for a grimey team… I say I say

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, Grimey!

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Ah, that’s you with the super long name! You also led the RCLs in Runs last week, nice work Grimey!

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        Trying to catch you in FCL…

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