We have another week’s worth of draft data (ten more leagues) to work with and about a week and a half left of the Razzball Commenters League draft season. All of our free leagues have filled (thank you!) and the only league left with openings is a $20 league drafting Saturday night against MarmosDad. Scroll down and click to join and get that Marmo Moola! If it still needs managers by Friday night, I might throw my Jackson down and join the fun. While you’re here, we can dive into our RCL ADP and see what Razzball Commenters are drafting so far; handy info for these upcoming drafts.
DRAFT TRENDS
This week we’re going to look at Razzball’s favorite SAGNOF specialists and where you can draft some late steals and saves. For steals, we’ll take a look at every player that Grey has projected for more than 20 SBs. For Saves, I’ll just grab as many closers and potential closers as I can think of. If I miss a name, feel free to open up the RCL ADP SPREADSHEET that I maintain for all of your viewing pleasure. I’ve seen plenty of anonymous animals with that spreadsheet open and I’d consider it a great resource during your RCL drafts. You can also just copy out the data to your own Excel sheet and use it in your own War Room if that tickles your fancy. Enjoy and deity of choice speed.
WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP
We’ve got RCL ADP! Here’s a list from our 25 league sample of some players whose ADPs I was curious about and some general notes.
| PLAYER | Proj SBs | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 54 | 1.1 |
| Julio Rodriguez | 32 | 2.6 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 47 | 4 |
| Corbin Carroll | 58 | 4.5 |
| Kyle Tucker | 30 | 6.8 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 35 | 8.2 |
| Trea Turner | 28 | 12.7 |
| Jose Ramirez | 26 | 15.6 |
| Francisco Lindor | 30 | 23.5 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 50 | 26.6 |
| Michael Harris II | 25 | 32.4 |
| Randy Arozarena | 25 | 36.3 |
| Nolan Jones | 25 | 43.3 |
| CJ Abrams | 52 | 44.9 |
| Oneil Cruz | 25 | 48.9 |
| Nico Hoerner | 37 | 54.8 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 25 | 58.6 |
| Josh Lowe | 25 | 86.6 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 30 | 91.6 |
| Bryson Stott | 28 | 98.9 |
| Jackson Chourio | 28 | 107 |
| Anthony Volpe | 27 | 107.6 |
| Andres Gimenez | 28 | 108.4 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 51 | 127.9 |
| Thairo Estrada | 26 | 138.5 |
| Jarren Duran | 31 | 140.7 |
| TJ Friedl | 28 | 154.1 |
| Starling Marte | 25 | 209.4 |
| Maikel Garcia | 25 | 231.5 |
| Sal Frelick | 32 | 233.9 |
| Johan Rojas | 27 | 288.2 |
| Brice Turang | 28 | 296.2 |
| Jose Azocar | 29 | #N/A |
2023 saw an absolute boon for steals with players running like wild. In season’s past I’ve used 20 as the cutoff for this list, but I’m going to up that to 25 this year to avoid a chart that is 50 players deep. As it stands, we’re at 33.
As you can see, stolen bases are at a premium at the top. These guys with five tools are what roto players dream about. The first real SAGNOF doesn’t appear until Jackson Chourio, in my opinion, and even his hopium has him climbing ADP charts lately.
Esteury Ruiz is the face of SAGNOF and he checks in right under Chourio in ADP. Ruiz will give you nothing but steals and the risk there is if he goes down, you’re kinda hosed.
Maikel Garcia is a sneaky steals play late at the corner infield spot. For anyone who fills their OF quickly, this is a good spot to grab Garcia.
Sal Frelick is waiting there if you have an OF spot open and is maybe this year’s SAGNOF poster child.
Jose Azocar is going undrafted, however, I think Graham Pauley might have nabbed his roster spot.
For saves, I grabbed everyone that Grey has projected for more than 10 saves:
| PLAYER | Proj SVs | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Edwin Diaz | 34 | 59.92 |
| Josh Hader | 33 | 63.68 |
| Camilo Doval | 35 | 75.64 |
| Jhoan Duran | 28 | 77 |
| Emmanuel Clase | 34 | 77.72 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 32 | 92.88 |
| Alexis Diaz | 30 | 95.2 |
| Jordan Romano | 30 | 95.8 |
| David Bednar | 30 | 106.4 |
| Paul Sewald | 27 | 113.4 |
| Andres Munoz | 24 | 113.92 |
| Evan Phillips | 25 | 119.8 |
| Ryan Helsley | 30 | 122.28 |
| Pete Fairbanks | 20 | 128.2 |
| Clay Holmes | 22 | 133.64 |
| Tanner Scott | 22 | 143.92 |
| Adbert Alzolay | 24 | 152.6 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 25 | 156.84 |
| Kenley Jansen | 28 | 163.4 |
| Jose Alvarado | 15 | 170.88 |
| Jose Leclerc | 14 | 198.2 |
| Alex Lange | 18 | 202.4 |
| Carlos Estevez | 26 | 215.2 |
| Kyle Finnegan | 14 | 219.84 |
| Robert Suarez | 14 | 230.92 |
| Will Smith | 12 | 240.84 |
| Hunter Harvey | 12 | 258.4 |
| David Robertson | 13 | 265.96 |
| Joel Payamps | 17 | 270.6 |
| Justin Lawrence | 17 | 273.8 |
I feel like I say this every year, but the closer market just seems volatile as all heck this year. There’s the top 15 (and even then I only REALLY trust about ten) or so that it seems like you can count on for saves and then, it’s just a mess. My suggestion? Grab a good closer early and then spam the bottom of the barrel and hope you hit on a few.
If I miss or skip the top closers, I like to grab one or two of Evan Phillips, Ryan Helsley, and/or Pete Fairbanks. These guys are undervalued and could easily be elite.
Expect Jose Leclerc’s ADP to climb now that he’s been named closer.
Jose Alvarado, Alex Lange, Carlos Estevez, and Kyle Finnegan is the next range I like to hit.
Will Smith is a favorite late round grab along with Justin Lawrence. Saves and saves and they ain’t go no face. Have you ever seen Justin Lawrence’s face? I thought not.
RECENT TRENDS
Here’s a look at some changes in ADP from the start of draft season until now. Early March vs. Mid March.
| PLAYER | ADP (2/28-3/4) | ADP (3/5-3/10) | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 176.1 | 255.1 | -79.0 |
| Noelvi Marte | 166.3 | 234.9 | -68.6 |
| Braxton Garrett | 149.5 | 216.1 | -66.6 |
| Kyle Bradish | 110.0 | 167.9 | -57.9 |
| Kodai Senga | 80.9 | 123.0 | -42.1 |
| Shane Baz | 214.3 | 252.6 | -38.3 |
| Nick Lodolo | 237.9 | 273.6 | -35.7 |
| Walker Buehler | 139.5 | 170.6 | -31.1 |
| Taylor Ward | 220.5 | 250.4 | -29.9 |
| Paul Skenes | 271.0 | 297.7 | -26.7 |
| Reid Detmers | 229.4 | 256.0 | -26.6 |
Our negative differences are all injuries, demotions, suspensions, and Taylor Ward. Not sure why Ward is getting knocked, but I’d take the discount there.
| PLAYER | ADP (2/28-3/4) | ADP (3/5-3/10) | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Davis | 291.4 | 237.6 | 53.8 |
| Anthony Volpe | 123.1 | 90.1 | 33.0 |
| Wyatt Langford | 133.4 | 102.6 | 30.8 |
| Will Smith | 278.5 | 248.1 | 30.4 |
| Clarke Schmidt | 297.4 | 268.0 | 29.4 |
| Jose Leclerc | 222.8 | 194.1 | 28.6 |
| James Wood | 299.1 | 271.0 | 28.1 |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | 180.9 | 153.3 | 27.6 |
| Robert Suarez | 269.8 | 242.3 | 27.5 |
| Jose Siri | 275.9 | 248.6 | 27.3 |
| Zack Gelof | 180.1 | 153.1 | 27.0 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 135.3 | 108.7 | 26.5 |
| Jonathan India | 256.5 | 230.6 | 25.9 |
On the positive side Henry Davis has been blasting the ball and with Grandal being 900 years old, Davis should get reps behind the plate and you know we all love a catcher who can mash. Hopefully, the spring numbers carry over to real baseball.
Wyatt Langford is also having an amazing spring and people are pushing him further and further up their draft boards. It’s maybe getting a little out of hand with a high pick of 59, fifth round.
No surprise that Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s ADP is on the rise with Marte’s suspension. Hope you got him early!
A lot of closers end up on this risers list as more and more of our sharp leagues draft. Will Smith won’t go undrafted in leagues with the smart RCL players.
TO JOIN A LEAGUE
Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) for the time you want and YOU’RE IN. Damn, that’s too easy. Oh, I guess I should also mention make sure you’re joining a league for free or for money, depending on your preference. If you want a league for money, then 1) Click the link. 2) Pay the money. That’s it! No pesky third requirement! Again, Fantrax and Razzball take no money. You can join as many free or paid leagues as you like. To quit a league, go to OTHER –> All Options –> Quit League (located at the bottom). Now go join some leagues!
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