We have another week’s worth of draft data to work with and only about one week left of the Razzball Commenters League draft season.  All public drafts wrap up on Tuesday, March 30th, so if you’ve been waiting to join a league, wait no more!  We have plenty of spots to fill, including a league drafting tomorrow night.  We have a couple $20 leagues with spots to fill this weekend.  Go get that money!  You can even draft while you work on Tuesday at 2 ET.  The sign-up sheet is linked at the end of this article, just scroll down and you’ll see all the open leagues.  While you’re here, we can dive into our RCL ADP and see what Razzball Commenters are drafting so far; handy info for these upcoming drafts.

DRAFT TRENDS

This week we’re going to look at Razzball’s favorite SAGNOF specialists and where you can draft some late steals and saves.  For steals, we’ll take a look at every player that Grey has projected for more than 20 SBs.  For Saves, I’ll just grab as many closers and potential closers as I can think of.  If I miss a name, feel free to open up the RCL ADP SPREADSHEET that I maintain for all of your viewing pleasure.  I’ve seen plenty of anonymous animals with that spreadsheet open and I’d consider it a great resource during your RCL drafts.  You can also just copy out the data to your own Excel sheet and use it in your own War Room if that tickles your fancy.  Enjoy and deity of choice speed.

WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP

We’ve got RCL ADP!  Here’s a list from our 30 league sample of some players whose ADPs I was curious about and some general notes.

PLAYER Proj SBs ADP HI LO
Ronald Acuna Jr. 25 1.17 1 2
Fernando Tatis Jr. 27 2.37 1 6
Mookie Betts 24 3.67 2 5
Trea Turner 33 7.43 5 10
Jose Ramirez 23 8.83 6 15
Bo Bichette 25 19.47 12 30
Luis Robert 26 26.7 21 36
Adalberto Mondesi 51 27.5 14 49
Tim Anderson 24 42.6 24 59
Whit Merrifield 22 48.6 32 67
Starling Marte 24 58.4 31 76
Trent Grisham 25 73.6 50 99
Victor Robles 21 175.47 116 216
Leody Taveras 26 194.37 128 274
Andres Gimenez 25 195.13 94 300
Garrett Hampson 23 222.37 147 275
Jonathan Villar 22 224.23 131 300
Raimel Tapia 20 227 162 297
Kolten Wong 21 255.37 172 300
Myles Straw 29 268.57 172 300
Manuel Margot 24 279.3 195 300
Roman Quinn 24 297.93 238 300

Within the top 100, we’re not really talking SAGNOF, these guys are the cream of the crop.  There is a large ADP gap from ~75 to ~175 where there are no steals to be had.  You’re either getting an elite base stealer or you’re digging in the bottom of the barrel for some more SANGOF-ish options.

Hampson and Tapia have been a couple of my favorites to grab late when I am feeling the need for speed.  Nick Madrigal didn’t make the list, but he’s another late option to boost those SB numbers.  Several of this late group aren’t even being drafted, so there should be some steals available to stream in most leagues  if need be.

In order to avoid a 100 player list, I just nabbed Grey’s top 30 for projected saves:

PLAYER Proj SVs ADP HI LO
Josh Hader 36 62.43 26 81
Liam Hendriks 35 63.9 47 81
Aroldis Chapman 36 84.47 49 105
Edwin Diaz 32 91 64 120
Raisel Iglesias 34 100.37 62 130
James Karinchak 27 108.87 60 136
Brad Hand 33 113.57 94 130
Ryan Pressly 29 119.5 84 143
Kenley Jansen 34 121.8 92 143
Will Smith 16 129.3 83 185
Kirby Yates 29 140.47 108 182
Nick Anderson 27 153.03 111 216
Trevor Rosenthal 23 162.07 103 201
Alex Colome 25 169.93 78 225
Craig Kimbrel 21 170.57 117 204
Richard Rodriguez 27 174.2 110 255
Rafael Montero 27 193.4 148 233
Matt Barnes 32 204.23 134 257
Amir Garrett 17 230.23 174 300
Greg Holland 15 242.97 180 300
Joakim Soria 22 252.57 197 300
Hector Neris 22 253.33 191 300
Daniel Bard 20 260.23 191 300
Anthony Bass 14 263.43 197 300
Jake McGee 12 273.53 179 300
Alex Reyes 12 279.77 237 300
Emilio Pagan 12 289.27 182 300
Tanner Scott 14 293.53 247 300
Matt Bush 12 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Joe Jimenez 11 #N/A #N/A #N/A

I feel like I say this every year, but the closer market just seems volatile as all heck this year.  There’s the top 10 or so that it seems like you can count on for saves and then, it’s just a mess.  Now Yates is hurt, I never feel like I can trust Tampa bay to stick to a closer and I really don’t know that Hector Neris is the guy in Philly.  Then we have the bottom two closers on this list not even being drafted in leagues yet.  Matt Bush is maybe the closer now with Leclrec out.  It’s a mess out there folks.  My suggestion?  Grab a good closer early and then spam the bottom of the barrel and hope you hit on a few.

RECENT TRENDS

Here we have a little chart showing some of the changes in ADP from early in the season to this past week.  The bigger the DIFF number the lower the player is currently being drafted and vice versa.

PLAYER ADP (3/1-3/11) ADP (3/15-3/21) DIFF
Shohei Ohtani 193.2 145.7 -47.5
Domingo German 291.7 255.4 -36.3
Greg Holland 262.7 228.9 -33.8
Aaron Hicks 261.7 228.1 -33.6
Emilio Pagan 300 268.9 -31.1
Joc Pederson 259.4 228.4 -31
Eduardo Rodriguez 224.2 194.7 -29.5
Chris Sale 267.6 241.1 -26.5
Anthony Bass 276.7 250.4 -26.3
Jose Leclerc 268.2 242 -26.2
Nathan Eovaldi 240.9 215 -25.9
Austin Riley 208.7 184.8 -23.9
Ryan McMahon 261.2 240.6 -20.6
Bobby Dalbec 273.2 253 -20.2
Jake McGee 283.4 263.3 -20.1
Daulton Varsho 248.4 269.4 21
Wander Franco 230.9 252 21.1
Dinelson Lamet 111.9 134.8 22.9
Hunter Harvey 276.3 299.5 23.2
Mitch Garver 256.4 280.4 24
Kwang Hyun Kim 260.3 284.8 24.5
Tommy La Stella 272.8 298.6 25.8
Jarred Kelenic 154.2 180.3 26.1
Cristian Javier 219.6 248.4 28.8
Devin Williams 149.9 181.4 31.5
Kolten Wong 231.6 265.4 33.8
Austin Nola 244.4 278.4 34
Nate Pearson 242.4 286.9 44.5
Framber Valdez 213.4 278.9 65.5
Carlos Carrasco 60.1 169.9 109.8

Every draft it seems like Ohtani is getting taken earlier and earlier.  Spring training is boosting his stock to the moon!  So many bad closers are climbing the ranks as more and more RCLs draft and the crappy closer carousel spins.  Bobby Dalbec is crushing it this spring and it seems drafters have taken notice.

The bottom four of this list are all injury hits, to be expected.  Interesting that Jarred Kelenic is moving up Grey’s draft board, but seems to be falling in the RCLs.  Devin Williams is quite a surprise too, there’s no reason I can think of outside of a small sample size that his draft stock should be falling.

Quick note before we hit the sign-up sheet, we still need one manager for the $100 RCL, Night of the Living Zombinos.  This is always one of the most competitive RCLs, which means if you win this one, you have a good shot at a top 10 overall finish.  Go ahead and shoot me an email: [email protected] if you’re interested or find the commish’s email in the spreadsheet.  Also, head to the spreadsheet and sign up for any number of leagues you wish!

TO JOIN A LEAGUE

Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) for the time you want and YOU’RE IN.  Damn, that’s too easy.  Oh, I guess I should also mention make sure you’re joining a league for free or for money, depending on your preference.  If you want a league for money, then 1) Click the link. 2) Pay the money.  That’s it!  No pesky third requirement!  Again, Fantrax and Razzball take no money.  You can join as many free or paid leagues as you like.  To quit a league, go to OTHER –> All Options –> Quit League (located at the bottom).  Now go join some leagues!

Want to be Matt’s Twitter pal?  That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow him here: @MattTruss

 
  1. srpst23 says:
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    Why are you using only Grey’s projections for SBs? He’s always got good projections, but he’s sometimes an outlier. For example, I think he’s the only person who isn’t projecting Dylan Moore for 20+ SBs, including Steamer which you guys link on this Site. He’s got an ADP of 150ish so he’s in the back end of the 75-150 wasteland.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Just to simplify things, and then I had to set a cutoff somewhere, so 20 seemed reasonable. Grey has him at 17 SBs. I figure, if I’m linking the sheet, if there’s someone y’all are curious about you can look them up. This is also RCL ADP, so take it with a grain of salt for any other league style.

  2. thehombre says:
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    Grey mentioned the other day that he likes Locastro. What do you think?

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      He’s fast AF and he’s just a weird, favorite player of mine too, but he’s always had inconsistent playing time at best. If Varsho is the answer to Calhoun missing time in the OF….Locastro is still a 4th OF, and when Calhoun comes back, he’s just a bench bat. To me, Timmy is a nice player to stream when he’s in the lineup in daily leagues and not much else.

  3. Matty says:
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    Everyone come join RCL #27.
    You’ve been slacking off at work for the NCAA Tournament anyways, may as well continue to trend into next week.

  4. The Fighting Chicken says:
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    Hey Truss, do you have any idea if Ohtani will get P eligibility before the season starts?

    Looks like he’s only Util eligible so his first 3 starts are a lost cause. Bummer.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      He will not, he needs to get those 3 starts since he didn’t pitch last season.

  5. D Fresh says:
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    Spot still open in NOTLZ? Sent you an email Truss.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      It’s yours!

  6. greg says:
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    Hoping you again add to one of your posts the suggestions and tips regarding tips to tweek the settings on our team pages. Always very helpful and my old brain never remembers them all. Thanks for your time.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      I absolutely will do that!

Comments are closed.