This was the smoothest and fastest the Razzball Commenter Leagues have filled in some time. Thank you everyone for getting in early and often! Only five drafts remain at this point with the Perts league drafting tonight and several other legacy leagues waiting until the last possible moment to draft. Two leagues drafted Monday night, including the RCL Champions League, Cougars R Us. Those Monday drafts are not included in the ADP sheet yet. There are pros and cons to drafting early. The biggest pro, of course, is the ability to snag rookies before their price goes sky-high. Think of Jordan Walker last year. While that didn’t work out quite as expected, some teams got him in round 20 while others had to take him in round five by the end of draft season. Maybe that is Wyatt Langford or Jackson Chourio this year. The biggest con, of course, is the injuries that can wreck your lineup. Gerrit Cole and Devin Williams drafters can unite here. Sad times. Drafters of any injured closer can commiserate in the comments as we dive into some more juicy ADP data.
DRAFT TRENDS
This week we’ll take a look at all of Grey’s sleepers and where their current RCL ADP has them landing so you know when to strike. Can’t remember whose tires December Grey was pumping? That’s OK, I’ve got you covered. As always, feel free to open up the RCL ADP SPREADSHEET that I maintain for all of your viewing pleasure, and check out your own sleeper target’s ADP. You can also just copy out the data to your own Excel sheet and use it in your own War Room if that tickles your fancy. Enjoy!
WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP
We’ve got RCL ADP! Here’s a list from our 37 league sample of some players whose ADPs I was curious about and some general notes.
| PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Walker | 102.77 | 73 | 139 |
| Josh Naylor | 111.29 | 87 | 141 |
| Riley Greene | 131 | 96 | 166 |
| Mitch Keller | 134.1 | 95 | 167 |
| James Outman | 144.9 | 113 | 187 |
| Isaac Paredes | 146.19 | 110 | 177 |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | 156.06 | 103 | 225 |
| Edouard Julien | 180.84 | 124 | 227 |
| Braxton Garrett | 197.81 | 130 | 293 |
| Sal Frelick | 235.77 | 158 | 300 |
| Kutter Crawford | 251.06 | 184 | 300 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 252.58 | 179 | 300 |
| Jordan Westburg | 257.1 | 202 | 300 |
| MacKenzie Gore | 270.55 | 205 | 300 |
Jordan Walker is the most…awoken of Grey’s sleepers, which makes sense, we all know Grey’s love of J-Walk and the stipulation that all Razzball writers must draft him by round 7 or seek employment elsewhere. On the pitching side, Mitch Keller is getting the most hype. Braxton Garrett may have challenged for that spot, but the shoulder injury has driven his price down and 293 is an absolute bargain once he’s back in action. Frelick has gone undrafted in some leagues, but with Mitchell’s injury that should change in a hurry. With Jackson Holliday’s demotion, Jordan Westburg shares have gone to the moon as well. I feel like people forget how good Gore was last season, which I guess is the definition of a sleeper. He may only be a streamer in RCLs, but definitely someone to keep tabs on early on.
In other draft news, RCL friend, VinWins compiled some fun stats for drafts thus far (including the two from Monday night):
208 players have been selected in all 39 drafts.
50 have been taken in just 1 draft.
RECENT TRENDS
Here’s a look at some changes in ADP from the start of draft season until now. Mid March vs. Late March.
| PLAYER | ADP (3/11-3/17) | ADP (3/18+) | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 300 | 244.1 | 55.9 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 269.1 | 224.8 | 44.3 |
| Daulton Varsho | 202.3 | 168.1 | 34.2 |
| Justin Verlander | 200.9 | 170.3 | 30.7 |
| Sean Murphy | 235 | 205.6 | 29.4 |
| Kyle Harrison | 249.4 | 220.8 | 28.6 |
| Jonathan India | 219.9 | 191.6 | 28.3 |
| Alex Verdugo | 284.2 | 256.2 | 28 |
| Shota Imanaga | 178.7 | 150.8 | 27.9 |
| Hunter Brown | 174.6 | 147.7 | 26.9 |
| Will Smith (RP) | 205.6 | 244.1 | -38.5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 167.8 | 208.8 | -41 |
| Matt McLain | 47.2 | 89 | -41.8 |
| TJ Friedl | 164.4 | 208.7 | -44.3 |
| Tommy Edman | 230.6 | 276.8 | -46.2 |
| Gerrit Cole | 118 | 165.4 | -47.4 |
| David Robertson | 231.8 | 284.1 | -52.3 |
| Jhoan Duran | 68.2 | 128.7 | -60.5 |
| Kyle Bradish | 204.5 | 270.3 | -65.8 |
| Devin Williams | 154.1 | 242.6 | -88.5 |
Griffin Jax makes the biggest leap this week with Jhoan Duran hurting his oblique and out for an unknown amount of time people are pouncing on Jax with his increased spring velo and sweeper are making noise. I just nabbed him in my AL Only auction this weekend for possibly more than I should have.
Ceddanne Rafaela is getting some love after Grey screamed his love for him. Jonathan India makes sense too with his newfound guaranteed playing time.
Coolwhip’s job is done, he has sufficiently pumped up Shota Imanaga to around pick 150.
Everyone else is a case of injuries or Jose Leclerc being named closer. It also seems people are waiting on Will Smith a bit longer in recent drafts.
That’s a wrap! Happy final drafts and may your closers all survive the next two days. We’ll be back next week to break down the final draft data and the half a week of stats.
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