There are pros and cons to drafting early. The biggest pro, of course, is the ability to snag rookies before their price goes sky-high. This was Julio Rodriguez last year. Several teams who were able to secure him in round 20 or later last year went on to win their leagues. Is that Jordan Walker this year? Maybe, but good luck getting him past pick 120 anymore. Walker was taken 63rd overall in my DFSers Anonymous draft this weekend. This is the league that I won the overall title from and a really sharp group of managers. The biggest con is the injuries that can wreck your lineup. Edwin Diaz and Jose Altuve drafters can unite here. My Razzslam team featured both of these players. Fun times. Let us commiserate and hope we can all find this year’s Julio Rodriguez to ease that pain.
In other news, we have one week left in the draft season and 84 spots to fill across nine leagues drafting just about every night (and one noon) this week and weekend. If one of these leagues with 12 openings needs to move to a different day/time, let me know in the comments and I’ll adjust. Anything to fill them at this point. Now, let’s dive into some data!
DRAFT TRENDS
This week we’ll take a look at all of Grey’s sleepers and where their current RCL ADP has them landing so you know when to strike. Can’t remember whose tires December Grey was pumping? That’s OK, I’ve got you covered. As always, feel free to open up the RCL ADP SPREADSHEET that I maintain for all of your viewing pleasure, and check out your own sleeper target’s ADP. You can also just copy out the data to your own Excel sheet and use it in your own War Room if that tickles your fancy. Enjoy!
WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP
We’ve got RCL ADP! Here’s a list from our 24 league sample of some players whose ADPs I was curious about and some general notes.
| PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | 91.83 | 75 | 117 |
| Anthony Santander | 96.79 | 69 | 123 |
| Tyler O’Neill | 97.67 | 75 | 129 |
| Jake McCarthy | 97.83 | 62 | 128 |
| Taylor Ward | 109.75 | 94 | 128 |
| Joe Ryan | 138 | 101 | 207 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 139 | 78 | 211 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 141.46 | 106 | 173 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 142.33 | 109 | 201 |
| Brady Singer | 154.33 | 92 | 224 |
| Jeffrey Springs | 159.42 | 123 | 189 |
| Jose Miranda | 165.63 | 101 | 200 |
| Thairo Estrada | 177.46 | 129 | 224 |
| CJ Abrams | 199.63 | 132 | 300 |
| Seth Brown | 205.33 | 123 | 256 |
| Justin Steele | 262.17 | 179 | 300 |
| Edward Olivares | 274.38 | 200 | 300 |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | 276.38 | 205 | 300 |
Hunter Greene is the most…awoken of Grey’s sleepers, which I suppose makes sense, his stuff is electric and RCLs love those strikeouts. I have several shares already. Anthony Santander is the most hyped on the offensive side of the ball. Jake McCarthy and Taylor Ward are getting plenty of love from me. I’ve been jumping the gun on McCarthy all over the place trying to lock down what I think will be the NL steals leader. Vaughn Grissom has been my…”oops, I forgot to draft a 2B” option in drafts. I hope the Braves play him and he’s not locked in the ninth spot. I always mean to draft Thairo Estrada and have been missing him everywhere, settling for Ezequiel Tovar instead. I have been scooping up Edward Olivares all over the place as well, he’s very often been my final OF spot or fill-in for known injuries like Harper and others. Really would love to see him break out. That 300 ADP means there are leagues where he wasn’t drafted at all…don’t let that happen in your league.
In other draft news, RCL friend, VinWins compiled some fun stats for drafts thus far:
225 players have been selected in all 24 drafts.
54 have been taken in just 1 draft (including James Paxton who was #134 for his lone selection).
RECENT TRENDS
| PLAYER | ADP (3/6-3/12) | ADP (3/13-3/19) | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Robertson | 300 | 211.8 | 88.2 |
| Evan Phillips | 231.875 | 188.6 | 43.3 |
| Thairo Estrada | 193.75 | 152.3 | 41.4 |
| Joey Meneses | 205.5 | 165.3 | 40.2 |
| Seth Brown | 223.125 | 184.4 | 38.7 |
| Paul Sewald | 205.5 | 169 | 36.5 |
| Jorge Lopez | 266.75 | 232.6 | 34.2 |
| Alex Lange | 226.125 | 193.6 | 32.6 |
| David Bednar | 167.625 | 135.4 | 32.2 |
| Michael Fulmer | 295.25 | 263.3 | 31.9 |
| Pete Fairbanks | 190.375 | 158.9 | 31.5 |
| Trevor May | 284.5 | 253.1 | 31.4 |
| Felix Bautista | 131.375 | 100.4 | 30.9 |
| Anthony Volpe | 274.5 | 244.1 | 30.4 |
| Kendall Graveman | 219.25 | 190 | 29.3 |
| Jordan Walker | 125.25 | 98.9 | 26.4 |
| Daulton Varsho | 70.5 | 60.2 | 10.3 |
| George Springer | 64.625 | 56.3 | 8.3 |
| Cedric Mullins | 39.5 | 33.3 | 6.2 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 25.875 | 34.4 | -8.6 |
| Jose Altuve | 32.75 | 53.1 | -20.4 |
| Kyle Wright | 100.375 | 144.2 | -43.8 |
If you open up my RCL ADP Spreadsheet, you’ll see some tabs at the bottom for ADP by date. This can be handy in eliminating early noise or accounting for injuries. Our biggest movement from the last week is a tale of injury woe. Edwin Diaz takes a huge tumble and David Robertson is there to capitalize.
An interesting phenomenon is happening as the later legacy and money leagues get to drafting. These leagues are where the RCL vets linger and that is going to drive the price of starting pitching down and the price of closers up. This is a phenomenon you will see in most of the legacy league drafts where the waiver wire is bare of all save vultures and starters are streamed aplenty.
I also took some feedback from last week and dug around the upper ADP range for changes and found Mullins on the rise and Alcantara falling. I will chalk this up to hitters being at a premium in the early rounds of these drafts and starters falling. Know your draft room. I was able to draft Gerrit Cole at 33 overall in DFSers Anonymous on Sunday…even I was willing to take that deal.
Speaking of hitters at a premium…how about that Jordan Walker ADP? Anthony Volpe is also making his presence felt in draft rooms recently.
TO JOIN A LEAGUE
Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) for the time you want and YOU’RE IN. Damn, that’s too easy. Oh, I guess I should also mention make sure you’re joining a league for free or for money, depending on your preference. If you want a league for money, then 1) Click the link. 2) Pay the money. That’s it! No pesky third requirement! Again, Fantrax and Razzball take no money. You can join as many free or paid leagues as you like. To quit a league, go to OTHER –> All Options –> Quit League (located at the bottom). Now go join some leagues!
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