Prospect News: Unboxing Holiday Trades or Forret Through The Trees

It’s Christmas week, and the yule stove is warm, so let’s gather around the fire of teams making transactions and poke at the coals. 

When Baltimore made the Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward swap, we anticipated another move to clear the outfield logjam. That’s not exactly what happened next, but they did clear out a bunch of pieces and add a pitcher in sending several prospects to Tampa in exchange for Shane Baz. One thing makes this trade unique is how differently the Orioles seem to value Rodriguez and Baz. Another is that you don’t often see three fresh first-round picks in one deal. If ever. OF Slater de Brun and C Caden Bodine were first-rounders this year, and Baltimore kicked in the 33rd selection in next year’s draft along with RHP Michael Forret and OF Austin Overn. Bodine has played 11 games in Low-A, and de Brun hasn’t played yet in the pros. 

Another interesting angle is that the Rays will return to Tropicana Field in 2026, and Baz struggled tremendously when pitching at Steinbrenner Field in 2025, posting a 5.90 ERA at home and 3.86 ERA on the road. He allowed 1.97 home runs per nine innings at Steinbrenner and 0.86 on the road. Theoretically, they’re trading him at a dip in his value according to the back of his baseball card, but I think the opposite is just as likely. Teams are pretty tough to fool with statistics these days, and Baltimore appears to be looking straight past the home outcomes and paying for Baz’s road results along with some upside. I get that. He could be much better than his road outcomes if he can get comfortable at his new home park and remain healthy long enough to hone his command. 

Tampa wasn’t done there, trading Brandon Lowe, OF Jake Mangum and LHP Mason Montgomery away to Pittsburgh on the same day and receiving OF Jacob Melton and RHP Anderson Brito from the Astros. If I had to guess, I’d say Chandler Simpson’s playing time is in a little trouble. The Rays signed Cedric Mullins for $7.5 million with an option for 2027 earlier this off-season to play center after seeing how far from being a big league defender Simpson is in out there, and he might not ever hit enough to hold down a corner spot. 

People are calling this a retooling or rebuilding period for Tampa, but I disagree with that. They’ve still got a rotation of Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Steven Matz and Joe Boyle. They paid Matz $15 million for two seasons. Spending money on veterans is not the behavior of a Rays team that thinks it’s rebuilding. I also believe they targeted Michael Forret because they see him as part of the rotation picture in the near future. In 18 starts across High-A and Double-A, he recorded a 1.88 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with 91 strikeouts in 74 innings. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see him break camp in the rotation if another domino or two falls. 

I’m guessing they’ve got their eye on a low-end free agent to play second base because Taylor Walls and his 66 wRC+ are currently penciled in there. Or perhaps they’ll spin some of these trade assets back into the 2026 roster. Cardinals 2B Brendan Donovan and Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte are both on the trade market under reasonable contracts. OF Slater de Brun in particular fits what Arizona tends to look for in a prospect: double plus speed and credible centerfield defense with surprising pop for a smaller guy. It’d take a heck of a lot more than that to get Marte, of course, but I’m just connecting dots here. Those draft picks are easy currency to trade as well because they add some flexibility on the 40-man crunch for teams that collect and slow-play prospects. 

The trade makes it feel doubly official that Baltimore’s front office is pushing its chips in after signing 1B Pete Alonso for five years and $155 million. Combined with Taylor Ward, they’ve added 74 right-handed home runs from 2025. Those homers don’t count in 2026, of course, but the added thump drastically changes the look of their lineup, especially after Ryan Mountcastle and Tyler O’Neill failed to provide the balance that was expected from them last year. Then again, chasing last year’s home runs didn’t exactly work out with O’Neill. They’re still counting on Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, and it’s not like Shane Baz has always been the picture of health, so they might still be looking for another arm. To my mind, it’s a little weird that they gave away Grayson Rodriguez for an expiring corner outfielder then traded a prospect haul for Baz, but it could work certainly out in their favor, or at least in favor of Mike Elias keeping his job. All they gotta do is win. 

Pittsburgh sent RHP Mike Burrows to Houston, where he figures to open the season in the starting rotation, wielding a new two-seamer they plan to teach him and bumping RHP Jason Alexander or RHP Ryan Weiss to a swingman role. Burrows is coming off a solid rookie season that saw him record a 3.94 ERA with 1.24 WHIP and 97 strikeouts in 96 innings, but it’s hard to dislike this trade for the Pirates. OF Jake Mangum probably goes to the top of the lineup, and 2B Brandon Lowe bolsters the middle before heading to free agency (or somewhere else at the trade deadline). LHP Mason Montgomery hasn’t gotten the most consistent outcomes, but he’s got great stuff and could be dominant with improved command.

Combined with the Johan Oviedo for OF Jhostynxon Garcia trade, Pittsburgh has added three bats to a lineup that desperately needed some if they want to have any chance to win while Paul Skenes is in town. It’s been an interesting off-season for them. Everyone has known they needed to move arms for bats for a while, and now they have, twice in two off-seasons now considering their well-timed trade of Luis Ortiz to the Cleveland Gamblers for Spencer Horwitz, who was good for them (119 wRC+) when he got healthy. Oh yeah, they also sent David Bednar to New York at the deadline. Rafael Flores should contribute at some point this season and is a good park-fit as a lefty power bat. The rotation doesn’t look the scariest on paper today, but Jared Jones is on track to return to the rotation this season. He was already playing catch in September. And Bubba Chandler could make a leap. With Skenes, Chandler, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones and Braxton Ashcraft, they’d be looking down at a lot of lesser starting staffs. 

Thanks for reading!