We’ll get back to rolling out the Top 100 next time, but the news cycle demands that we make space to discuss two major trades in the prospect world.
If you happen to be a Brewers fan, I don’t really know what to say that might make you feel better about trading Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers for RHP Brandon Sproat and SS Jett Williams. Perhaps you’ve internalized the message that your team is so poor that it can’t afford the final season of a good player’s contract or so poor at finding prospects that they have to make these kinds of trades to keep the system stocked. Perhaps you’re totally in step with this transaction.
Me, I think $8 million or a post-season-caliber starter is incredibly cheap. Sure, he generated just 3.6 FWAR in 2026, which is only worth something like $40 million is the dollar-per-war, regular-season math.
Milwaukee has been great at winning during the regular season. I’m sure the win-share math on this trade works from a regular-season-focused, long-term perspective wherein nobody ever cares if you never win a World Series.
In my opinion, the postseason is different. A starter like Peralta pushes a team like New York into actual contention and losing that piece means Milwaukee would enter October without an ace.
I can’t shake the feeling that this transaction feels like a guy brought a new guy into a dynasty league and then made a friendly deal with him. Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns stayed on for a full season after stepping down from that spot in September of 2022. That whole time, he mentored current Brewers PoBO Matt Arnold. It was this reason, mostly, that encouraged me to predict this trade last week in Prospect News: Never Met a Pricier Maybe or Bichette, Please when I wrote “Circling back to Stearns, he could call his old club and hammer something out for Freddy Peralta, which feels like enough to finish strong in a strange off-season. Unclear what the Brewers would want.”
Feels like a pretty strong finish to me, especially combined with their trade for CF Luis Robert. They had three excellent pitching prospects and gave up the least of the three, at least to me. They have a plethora of young infielders blocked by veterans and give up one of those. In exchange, they receive four years of cheap control over a pitcher who generated a 3.00 ERA in 138 innings as a rookie in 2024.
Oh and they also get Freddy Peralta, the ace of a team that won the most games in the National League last year. I see people calling him a number three starter, and that’s just wrong. In what world does a contending team have two starters better than Peralta? Sorry, distracted by straw men. What are people calling him a third starter? He’s the ace of the New York City Metropolitans for goodness sakes!
And what’s he going to make next winter if he stays healthy? Let’s say he puts up a 2.90 ERA in 190 regular season innings. Hits free agency at age 30. He’ll be in the same class as Tarik Skubal, which could cut either way but feels like it might be a rising tide that raises all ships. Could Peralta land a deal at $40 million per year? I think so. Which means the Brewers would’ve generated something like $30 million of consolidated value on his contract by keeping him in 2026.
In the playoffs, that math is irrelevant. You are not measuring guys against replacement-level players. You are measuring guys against regulars on first-division ballclubs.
SS Jett Williams gets a nice value boost, in both the short and long term.
Here’s what I wrote about Williams in the Mets prospect report:
“Listed at 5’7” 175 pounds, Williams is a spark plug in the mold of a Jose Altuve or Corbin Carroll, which provides some context to just how fantastic he’ll have to be to play every day at his size. In 130 games across two levels, he hit 17 home runs and stole 34 bases, but he was much better in the 96 Double-A games than he was in 34 Triple-A games. That’s not a big deal of course, but he’ll have to be pretty great to crack this lineup, and I’m a little worried he might go the way of Drew Gilbert and wind up traded.”
Oh hey, he wound up traded. That escalated quickly.
Here’s what I wrote about Sproat:
“All the cool kids loved Sproat heading into the season, but the skeptical among us wound up more accurate than the enthusiastic, as is so often the case in life. He’s still a solid prospect of course. At 6’3” 215 pounds, he’s strong and balanced throughout his delivery, which has helped him to develop command of his impressive arsenal, highlighted by a mid-90’s fastball that plays well up in the zone and pairs well with his cutter, slider and changeup, all solid pitches in their own right. He pitched 20.2 MLB innings this season and recorded a 4.79 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, so his season turned out alright even if it took him a while to bounce back from a tough start.”
I don’t think he’ll open the season in their rotation, but he’ll certainly pitch a big chunk of innings for them in 2026.
The other big pitching deal to discuss involved Mackenzie Gore going from Washington to Texas in exchange for a five-prospect package of Gavin Fien, Abimelec Ortiz, Alejandro Rosario, Devin Fitz-Gerald and Yeremy Cabrera. Gore should be much better pitching in front of a competent defense and competitive team in a cozy setting for left-handed pitchers. I saw someone move quickly to get him in a 15-team dynasty league yesterday, sending Ozzie Albies, Seth Lugo, Alek Thomas and Austin Hays for Gore and Lars Nootbaar.
The Nationals get to grow more branches on the Juan Soto trade tree. I’ll post the four profiles from my top ten for them here. Cabrera just missed but I like him enough as a fairly standard power-speed outfielder who posted a 120 wRC+ in 102 games as a 19-year-old in Low-A.
2. 2B Gavin Fien | 19 | A | 2030
Texas took this 6’3” 200 pound, right-handed power bat 12th overall and signed him for $4.8 million. They sent him to Low-A at season’s end for ten games, and while he didn’t hit much, the experience jumping from high school to pro ball in one summer should help him heading into 2026.
7. 1B/OF Abimelec Ortiz | 24 | AAA | 2026
At 5’10” 230 pounds from the left side, Ortiz is more athletic and loose than he might look at a glance, and I’ve long thought he’s underrated in dynasty circles partly because a lot of public lists put a heavy emphasis on defense. In 130 games across Double and Triple-A, Ortiz hit 25 home runs and slashed .257/.356/.479 with a 22.1 percent strikeout rate.
8. RHP Alejandro Rosario | 23 | A+ | 2028
The stuff was incredible the last time Rosario was on a field in 2024, propelling him to a 0.93 WHIP and 2.24 ERA in 88.1 innings across Low-A and High-A. He missed all of 2025 with an elbow injury that was said to require Tommy John surgery and still does, theoretically, but this whole story is shrouded in HIPAA mystery, and Rosario will reportedly miss all of 2026. Not much clarity on how to play this one for our game except to wish this kid the best. Sounds like it would be a scary situation from his point of view.
10. 3B Devin Fitz-Gerald | 20 | A | 2029
Fitz-Gerald is sort of the stateside version of Rodriguez as a sum-of-his-parts type who always looks at home on a baseball field. A switch-hitter at 5’10” 185 pounds, he’s got a good approach from both sides of the plate and slashed .302/.428/.482 with eight home runs, six stolen bases and just 24 strikeouts against 28 walks in 41 games across two levels. In a system that’s kind of light on position players, Fitz-Gerald could climb quickly up the organizational ladder.
Ortiz is the big winner here for our game. Texas is a tough park for power, and Washington has tended toward kindness to lefty bats. Plus, he should have a shot to break camp in the big league starting lineup, which would be pretty tough to envision in Texas.
Rosario could be a nice value if they can resolve his mysterious elbow issues. He’s finally getting that Tommy John surgery, so he’ll be out of action for a while.
Thanks for reading!
