Atlanta outfielder Jason Heyward is getting some love for his defense this awards season, winning his second Gold Glove award in three years. But his 2014 campaign was a tad disappointing for the more offensively-minded fantasy baseballer. Keeper league owners hoped Heyward would bounce back to his 2012 breakout form (27 homers and 21 steals) after an injury-riddled 2013 season. Instead they were dealt a bad hand in the power department. While Heyward’s 21 steals provided similar value, 11 homers was a far cry from the power numbers he put up as a 22-year-old. The Braves’ right fielder ended up as the 37th ranked outfielder according to the 2014 Razzball player rater (150th overall). One of the glaring weaknesses this season was his inability to hit lefties. Heyward hit just .169 with two homers against southpaws. That was good for a measly 39 wRC+. Compare that to his 2012 season in which he hit .224 with seven dingers against lefties. Nothing incredible, but it was a more palatable 73 wRC+. All this may lead some impatient fantasy owners to give up on Heyward too early – tempting them to throw him back into the draft in some shallower keeper formats. I think that would be a mistake.
For starters, Heyward is still just 25 years old – an age at which most players are just starting to realize their full power potential. What he did at 22 was remarkable and made him a hot commodity in fantasy. Then 2013 happened. That 2013 season couldn’t have been worse for Heyward from a health perspective. Shoulder soreness, hamstring issues, an appendectomy, and a broken jaw all led to him accumulating only 440 plate appearances. But 25-homer power is still lurking in that bat, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it emerge in the next year or two. You have to wonder if any of the 2013 problems carried over into last year, considering he dealt with all of that at an age when most guys are getting another year of fine tuning at the minor league level. Heyward’s average fly ball distance went from 290 and 287 feet in 2012-13 to just 267 feet in 2014. His HR/FB% dipped all the way to 6.5% – almost a 10% drop from his 2012 breakout and 7% less than in 2013. At 25, Heyward’s a little young to be losing distance. Even small rebounds there could lead to better home run totals and make this past year’s 6.5% look like an outlier.
Heyward improved in several areas as well. His strikeout percentage declined for the third year in a row while his contact percentage increased another tick. His average and on-base percentage did bounce back, and we already mentioned the steals. Heyward was able to match his steals total from two years ago and that provided a nice boost to his fantasy value. At 25, Heyward isn’t going to fall of a cliff in that department either. I think expecting 15-20 stolen bases again in 2015 is reasonable. If a power rebound occurs, we’re looking at a 20/15 or possibly even 20/20 player. Steamer seems confident in a bounce back – projecting him for a return to the .170/.180 mark in isolated power with 21 homers in 645 plate appearances. Now another year removed from that 2013 season and still just entering his prime years, Heyward is a player I’m still targeting in keeper and dynasty formats, especially if I can land him at a discount from a frustrated owner.
