St. Louis was known as the “Gateway to the West” in the expansionist days of the good ole US of A. Now, St. Louis will be harboring a baseball team that will mimic an expansion team, as management decided to embrace the rebuild this offseason, trading away Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, and Nolan Arenado. The payroll has shrunk to $113 million, the lowest number since 2020 and only the third time since 2016 that it’s been under $120 million. Arenado was a staple at third base for the Cardinals for four seasons, but he’s been flung westward through the Gateway Arch to Arizona, leaving behind a massive black hole in his wake. But the Cardinals are playing chess, not checkers, by replacing one Nolan with another – Nolan Gorman. If one can ascertain knowledge through osmosis by placing the textbook under the pillow, then surely half of Arenado’s stats will remain. Right?
Gorman is 25 years old, 6-foot, 225 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was selected by the Cardinals in the 2018 draft with the 19th overall selection.
The power was evident from the start, as the ISO was .315 in rookie ball and finished .223 in Single-A. The walk rate was over 10%, but the strikeout rate was high as well, posting a 36.4% mark in Single-A. In 2021, Gorman racked up 195 plate appearances in Double-A and 328 plate appearances in Triple-A, finishing with 25 home runs, 71 runs, 75 RBI, and seven stolen bases. The walk rate was 7.3%, strikeout rate was 22%, ISO was .202, and the slash was .279/.333/.481.
Gorman made The Show in 2022, receiving 313 plate appearances and contributing 14 home runs. The walk rate was 8.9%, strikeout rate was 32.9%, ISO was .194, and the slash was .226/.300/.420.
The high-walk, high-strikeout, good power, and low batting average profile has remained to this day. Last season, Gorman accrued 402 plate appearances with an 11.7% walk rate, 33.8% strikeout rate, .165 ISO, and .205/.296/.370 slash.
I usually eschewed these players in the past, especially due to the batting average hit. But power is power, and the cost is palatable, as the NFBC ADP from the beginning of February is 370.
Steamer has Gorman projected for 440 plate appearances, 20 home runs, 50 runs, 57 RBI, and three stolen bases with a 10.3% walk rate, 32.2% strikeout rate, .194 ISO, and a .218/.301/.412 slash.
For starters, I think the 440 plate appearances are too low. With Arenado gone, all indications are that Gorman will be the starting third baseman. Could he crash and burn? Absolutely, and he does have two options left. But if he’s able to maintain the status quo, over 500 plate appearances seems likely.
Gorman had a 14.5% swinging strike rate last season. Not great, but the chase rate was only 26.8%. The contact rate in the zone was 79.3%, which isn’t bad. You know who else was in that range? Aaron Judge (79.6%) and Shohei Ohtani (78.6%). Both Judge and Ohtani also had a swinging strike rate around 14%. I’m not putting Gorman into the Judge/Ohtani tier. Or am I? I kid, I kid. I just wanted to point out that his numbers aren’t that bad.
As a left-handed hitter, platoony loony is always in the back of the mind. Last season, Gorman was actually better against lefties than righties, albeit in a significantly smaller sample size. Gorman had 309 plate appearances against righties but only 93 against lefties. The wRC+ was 106 against lefties compared to 82 against righties. The strikeout rate was lower against lefties (26.9% vs. 35.9%), the slash was better, and the ISO was higher (.220 vs. .149). That gives me more confidence that Gorman could receive more than 500 plate appearances.
The Cardinals likely won’t be a juggernaut on offense, but currently, Gorman is slated to bat cleanup per RosterResource and is projected to lead the team in home runs. And it’s the power that we are most interested in. In every MLB season, Gorman has posted a launch angle of at least 20 degrees. Last season, he was at 22.3 degrees, the seventh-best mark. Only 17 batters had a 20-degree launch angle or higher. It is that high launch angle that contributes to the low batting average.
While Gorman isn’t an extreme pull hitter, the career pull rate is 43.1%. That would place him in the top 75 last season.
Finally, Gorman is only 25 years old, entering his prime, and this will be his fifth MLB season. There’s a chance that he improves the strikeout rate and gets stronger. The control of the strike zone is already evident due to the high walk rate and low swing rate – 47.3%, good for 105th-best mark.
The batting average and strikeout rate are tough pills to swallow, but give me lift-and-pull into the seats all day over slap-and-run.
The team context is poor, so a ceiling outcome is unlikely, but Gorman could outproduce his ADP. There is risk for sure, but that is reflected in the draft cost.
