I’m a cruise guy. The all-you-can-eat buffet. Mmmmmmm. Yes, I’m 230 pounds of Grade A (sian) fatness. Walking the deck with the salty ocean breeze tickling the pores of my skin while in the middle of the ocean is nurturing. Playing the soft poker games in the casino is heavenly. In this COVID environment, though, not so much. Regardless, cruises are not for everyone. My parents despise them because they feel constricted. I get it. I no longer drink but many consume the occasional adult beverage once, twice….sheeiitt….Who am I kidding? That’s all they do on a cruise. That is heaven for them. To each their own. Now, who is their God? The bartender, of course, and there was no more inviting bartender than Isaac on the Love Boat. Yes, I’m an old but it was a popular show in my day. He’d chat, mix up the concoction to take you from Point A to Z, then send you on your way. Isaac Paredes of the Tampa Bay Rays may not be chatting fantasy nerds up, but he’s definitely provided a hypnotizing concoction that has gotten many to fall in love and scamper to jump on his boat. He was added in 26.6% of ESPN leagues. What kind of boat is actually being boarded?

Paredes is 23 years old, 5’11, 213 pounds and bats from the right side. He signed with the Cubs as an international free agent back in 2015. Two years later, he was traded to the Tigers and then shipped to the Rays earlier this year for Austin Meadows.

Throughout his minor league career, he showed excellent plate discipline. The strikeout rate was in the teens while the walk rate increased from 7% in rookie ball to 17.8% in Triple-A last season. The ISO never exceeded .200 until this season, though. That number was in the .130 range with a few blips in the .190 area. The batting average was all over the map with a low of .217 to a high of .321.

In 2021 with the Tigers, Paredes received 85 plate appearances and put up a .208/.306/.319 slash with one home run. The ISO was .111 but not all was bad. The BABIP was only .226 while the walk rate was 11.8% and the strikeout rate was 12.9%.

So far in 112 plate appearances this season, he is slashing .248/.313/.594 with a .347 ISO!!! The walk rate is 8% while the strikeout rate is 14.3%. The BABIP is only .197 but that’s what happens when 10 of his 25 hits are home runs.

Let’s dig in.

The average exit velocity is 87.1 mph while the max is at 110.4. In Detroit, those numbers were 85.5 and 106.4 respectively. The launch angle is similar to his time in Detroit at 17.3. He’s obviously barreling more balls and the hard hit rate is a whopping 14% higher.

He is hitting more ground balls and fly balls than during his time in Detroit, which means that the line drive rate is down by 10%. I view that as a Tampa Bay Rays organizational thing. Shoot for the tails and eschew the middle.

In Detroit, he pulled the ball 47.6% of the time. Now, that number is at 53.5%. Not shockingly, all of his home runs have been to left field. The HR/FB is at 23.8%, compared to 3.7% in Detroit.

While in Detroit, he struggled with both fastballs and sliders. So far this season, he’s mashing both pitches. He’s slugging .550 against fastballs and .609 against sliders. Last season, those numbers were .182 and .231 respectively.

Looking at the plate discipline numbers, things look more heavenly than the soft poker games on cruise ship casinos. Sure, the chase and swinging strike rates have increased, but they are still low at 29.5% for O-Swing and 6.2% for SwStr. The contact rate in the strike zone has increased from 89.2% to 92%.

There are no surprises when looking at the heat maps for Paredes. He’s crushing everything from inside to middle of the zone. Six of his home runs have come on pitches in the middle with the other four have been up and in.

The natural thing is for pitchers to start attacking the outer portions of the zone. Make him prove that he has oppo power. The thing is, Paredes is such a patient hitter and knows the strike zone, so he will continue to get pitches to hit in favorable counts. And pitchers will come inside to keep him honest but I think those will be fewer and further between until Paredes proves that he can cause damage on pitches away. Here are the ISO numbers in the outer portions of the zone: .000, .000, .100, .000, and .000.

The .347 ISO is currently unsustainable and adjustments will be made. With his pull happy ways and expected adjustments by pitchers, I’m inclined to face Paredes from a power perspective. Will it be Titanic-esque? Naw, I don’t think so, as the profile is too solid. He’s going to hit his share of home runs but many will be disappointed me thinks since they won’t be as voluminous going forward.

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7 months ago

As a guardians fan, I have seen a bit of joram in paredes. I think he can adjust to pitchers and be a top 150 for 2023.

Reply to  snapper
7 months ago

Interesting, hadn’t thought of that

Reply to  snapper
7 months ago

Damn. That’s high praise

7 months ago

I mentioned this to Grey. He kind of disagreed.

A lot of Tampa offensive players are not very good. The three biggest have been a mild disappointment. Brujan, Lowe and to some extent Franco.

Also you have Taylor Walls who was a solid prospect and inside top 100’s or near to it at some point.

I think we need to see a prospect for 3 years to figure out what they are…but many are not given that.

Parades is not their prospect per-se but he is no veteran. I wonder if he’ll keep it up….yes not at that homer pace, but can he finishh with 20 plus homers because that would be a win for both fantasy and the real life team.

Then if he does, all I think is poor Detroit…poor poor Detroit.

Reply to  Vash
7 months ago
7 months ago

So I followed Parades for years simply bc I was in a keeper and he was one of my keepers.

He was suppossed to be a solid contact hitter, who hits for solid average and has minimal power. I never understood why he was such a highly reguarded top 100 prospect bc I am not a professional.

His numbers were never eye popping as other better ranked prospects, many wish to have had a stretch like Parades.

I am still lost even after reading the article. All I understand is he’s pulling slightly more, and hitting a ton more fly balls. Tampa did something, and as you said eventually pitchers will go outside.

As you said, he knows the strike zone and I think Parades will simply adjust when pitchers THINK they can exploit it.

I do not believe in the power being sustained, but perhaps he went from a 15 type homer player to a 25 plus.

Issac Hayes
Reply to  Vash
7 months ago

The big question is future playing when B. LOWE returns. Does he go back to Utility role or stay on as part of the Tamp rotation of starters?

7 months ago

What up Son!

I haven’t chimed in since last year even though I’m a regular visitor to Razzball. Hope all is well.

I won my league last year btw…and yes, you did lend a hand after a bit of advice you have me about my instincts.

I’m in a custom weekly 12 Team H2H CBS points league. No penalties for strike outs in batting. 3 roster moves allowed per period. 2 IL Spots. 10 batter spots: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, OF, OF, U, U.
7 Batter Reserves…any position.
5 SP’S
2 RP’s (no SP’s allowed)
3 Pitching reserve spots.
Our scoring is a bit different per period, as we give 1 point for Highest Total score, 1 point for Highest Total Points Scored for Offense, 1 point for Highest Total Points scored for Pitching. It’s not a straight up Total Points win per period.
I’m having a somewhat successful year so far, but frustrating as well. I’ve held the top spot in my division for most of the year but have been battling someone for 1st with a NASTY team. My Pitching has been great, except for Carrasco, but my Offense has been mediocre at best. Part of the problem is that I’m a “Cronic Rosterbater” and I get impatient with my Offense.

This is my current Roster:

Starters (10 allowed)
C: MJ Melendez
1B: Vinny Pasquentino
2B: Ryan McMahon
SS: Bo Bichette
3B: Austin Riley
OF: Tyler Ward
OF: Amed Rosario
OF: Adam Duvall
U: Jon Berti
U: Franmil Reyes

RESERVES (7 allowed)
Jorge Soler
Luke Voit
Brendan Donovan
Max Muncy
Daulton Varsho
Tyrone Taylor
Nolan Gorman
SP: Joe Musgrove
SP: Nestor Cortez
SP: Shane Baz
SP: Nick Pivetta
SP: Spencer Strider
RP: Clay Holmes
RP: Daniel Robertson
Pitching Reserves
SP: Cristian Javier
SP: Carlos Carrasco
SP: Jefferey Springs
Jesus Luzardo

Available players:
Juan Yepez
E. Olivares
J. Alfaro
C. Raleigh
E. Longoria
G. Cooper
J. Duran
O. Gonzalez
D. Smeltzer
G. Ashcraft
T. Rogers
N. Syndergaard
D. Kremer

Would you recommend any changes to my roster, or should I show a bit more patience? It’s halfway through our season.


Reply to  [email protected]
7 months ago

Sup, Alan! Good to hear that I provided some value last season!

I think you look fine. Which Duran and Rogers are available?

Reply to  Son
7 months ago

Jarren Duran and Trevor Rogers

Reply to  Son
7 months ago

Thanks Son!

Reply to  [email protected]
7 months ago

Anytime! Although I don’t think I was much help. You know what you’re doing so follow you ur gut. It has served you well

7 months ago

Great write up.

Can I get your thoughts on my team? Who to cut, etc… 10 team, H2H, points

Oneil Cruz
Judge, Mullins, Nimmo, Greene
IL- Tatis and Tyler Stevenson

Gausman, Nola, wheeler, wright, Tyler Anderson, martin Perez Christian Javier and iglesias

IL- evoldi

Reply to  Mike
7 months ago

Depends on who’s available