When I was younger, I’d lie a lot, both to myself and others. Before you cancel me, these weren’t malicious and devious lies. They were lies born from either being high or embarrassed. I was swimming in the pool at my parent’s friends house. “Did you pee in the pool?” “Wasn’t me,” I replied, as the long green stream flowed from between my legs. When I got something wrong, I’d fight to the death because of my fragile ego. Or was it my Asian upbringing of anything less than an A being a disgrace to the family name? I kid I kid. My parents were super cool. Sure, they expected a lot from me and got on me when I was lazy, but I was fortunate to not have Tiger Parents. Anyways, after many years, I became somewhat enlightened. The truth shall set you free. It’s okay to be wrong, for that is how we learn and grow. It’s okay to tell the truth, even though it may hurt or be embarrassing. Situations are resolved and respect is gained faster, and ultimately so is arriving at the truth. Earlier this season, I wrote a piece on Christopher Morel. But new data has been presented which has made me reassess the situation.
I was down on Morel back in May because of the high strikeout and swinging strike rates. My thesis was that pitchers would adjust and exploit Morel. Well, it’s been Morel who has adjusted.
After posting a 38.7% strikeout rate over the first 75 plate appearances, that number has plummeted to 24.4% over the most recent 123 plate appearances. The swinging strike rate was 22.2%. Now it’s 13.2%.
The chase rate has gone from 40.8% down to 26%. The overall contact rate has spiked from 58.5% to 71.4%. Morel has been swinging at 7.6% fewer pitches in general, but 3% more in the strike zone.
I’m not one to wish for data to confirm my prior thesis. I freaking love seeing improvements like this. To everyone who thought he had this in him, kudos to you.
How have pitchers adjusted to Morel’s heater to start the season?
Well, in May, the fastball was thrown 51.4% of the time with breaking pitches 36.1% and offspeed pitches 12.4%. The whiff rate was 42.9%, 35.7%, and 68.8% respectively. In June, the fastball usage ticked down 2.4% while the offspeed pitches correspondingly moved up 2%. The whiff rate on all pitches was sub-30%. The putaway rate on the fastball was 48.5% in May. In June? That number was 15.8%!
So far in July, the fastball rate has spiked to 57%. The whiff rates on all the pitches have spiked again – 34.1% for the fastball, 52.4% for breaking pitches, and 75% for offspeed pitches.
This is the ebb-and-flow of this cat-and-mouse between Morel and pitchers. The sample sizes are still relatively small, but it’s encouraging to see the adjustments being made by Morel. That is something that I had questions about.
Now, how have these adjustments affected Morel?
The Statcast data has the average exit velocity down 2.2 mph while the maxEV is down 1.6 mph. The barrel rate is down 12.8% while the hard hit rate is down 13.2%. He’s now hitting way more ground balls, with the GB/FB rate almost doubling. The groundball rate has gone from 35.7% to 54.3% while the flyball rate has gone from 54.8% to 34.6%. The pull rate has increased 2.4%.
Looking at the heat maps, more pitches have been thrown low-and-away. That explains the increased ground ball rate and pull percentage. He’s trying to pull those pitches and is ending up topping them to the left side instead.
Morel has hit four of his 15 home runs over the right field fence, so he does possess oppo power. That said, I do think most of his power will come to the pull side. He’s shown that he’s willing to adjust and be more patient. My thinking is waiting for pitches inside to drive while poking the ball away when it’s pitched there will be the modus operandi.
On the flip side, I think pitchers will continue to pound low-and-away, which could have a two-fold effect: limit the power and possibly frustrate Morel at some point. Then everything could unravel. We shall see how it plays out.
In conclusion, I have been extremely impressed with the adjustments that Morel has made in such a short amount of time. I rarely see this. It’s encouraging and the new data definitely has forced me to reassess. It’s also a small sample size, so it could be a blip on the radar, but we won’t know that until later. The cat-and-mouse game will continue and it’s still within the range of outcomes that Morel reverts back to the swing-and-miss ways, but the probability of reaching the upper range of outcomes in which he puts it all together has definitely increased and is a viable outcome.
