One Man’s Trash: Jacob Lopez Is No Maverick

On a clear April afternoon, two F-22 Raptors were seen corkscrewing in a DNA formation above Beale Air Force Base, which is approximately 56 miles from Sutter Health Park. After the exquisite aerial ballet, the ground absorbed the 44,000-pound aircraft while the wheels vaped smoke from the friction of the instantaneous acceleration. The canopies opened. The pilots once again felt Earth, then one of them enthusiastically bellowed out, “I feel the need, the need for speed!” as he turned around and attempted to high-five the other. The 6-foot-4, 220-pound Jacob Lopez looked down at the 5-foot-7, 170-pound Tom Cruise, who is 63 years old yet looks the same age as Lopez, channeled his inner Will Smith, and smacked the high-five away. After thinking better of pounding Cruise’s head into the ground like a nail, Lopez knelt down, looked Cruise straight in the eye, and whispered, “Speed is nothing but a number.” And with that, pooof, Lopez was gone.

Lopez is a 27-year old, left-handed pitcher for the Athletics. He was selected by the San Francisco Giants in the 26th round of the 2018 draft. After two seasons, he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays, where he spent four seasons before getting shipped to the Athletics.

Jacob Lopez displayed his pitching chops immediately, posting a strikeout rate above 30%. After Tampa Bay got their hands on him, the K-BB% was above 30%! He also was excellent at keeping the ball in the yard. He did have Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss the entire 2022 season.

Lopez got his first MLB action in 2023 and 2024, albeit in extremely small sample sizes of 12.1 and 10.1 innings. The strikeout rates were in the teens. Ruh roh.

Last season, Lopez pitched 92.2 innings with starts in 17 of 21 games. The strikeout rate was 28.3% while the walk rate was 9.3%. Yippeee! He did allow 15 home runs, though, and ended the season with a 4.08 ERA and 4.26 FIP.

Lopez was more of a groundball pitcher early in his minor league career, but he’s now more of a flyball pitcher. Last season, the flyball rate was 50.4%, and that’s cause for some concern since Sutter Health Park was top 10 for home runs per Baseball Savant’s Park Factors.

The main concern, though, is the 90.7 mph average fastball velocity. Or is it? Hold up, as I Whack-a-Mole Tom Cruise back into the box.

Sure, velocity helps, but Jacob Lopez is truly a magician. The 28.7% whiff rate with the four-seam fastball was 25th in all of baseball last season! Tarik Skubal had the same 28.7% mark! So, how does he do it? A magician never tells his trick, but in this day of Instagram and Fangraphs, everything has been exposed.

One of the main reasons is the 7.2 inches of extension on his delivery, which is in the 95th percentile. That 90 mph fastball certainly doesn’t look like 90 mph, especially when coupled with his devastating slider, which produced a 32.7% whiff rate last season. The changeup had a 31.3% whiff rate while Lopez also threw a cutter and a sinker. The entire repertoire kept batters off balance, inducing whiffs and weak contact. The 86.9 mph average exit velocity and 33.2 mph hard-hit rate were both in the 94th percentile.

In eight of 17 starts last season, Lopez struck out at least eight batters. He did not allow an earned run in seven starts and went at least six innings seven times.

When he got lit up, though, he got lit the F up. In his final start of the season, the Mariners tagged him for nine earned runs in only two innings in Seattle. Lopez allowed at least five earned runs three other times.

Is Lopez a top of the rotation starter? Niet. He’s currently slotted as the fourth starting pitcher per Roster Resource, and he’s super cheap, as he’s the 340th overall player being selected in NFBC drafts in February. I’ll take the upside and bat-missing ability at that price all day.

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