One Man’s Trash: Jac In The Box

Back in 1563, John Foxe wrote the phrase “jack-in-the-box” to describe a swindler who would cheat tradesmen by selling them empty boxes. First of all, I’m not trusting anyone from the 1500s. Secondly, I’m sure as hell not getting behind anything written or said by someone named Foxe. You think I’m crazy? In 2025, if I drive to my local Jack in the Box and order a Jumbo Jack, you best believe I’m getting a sumptuous burger in that box. Fine, sumptuous may be hyperbole, but I’m getting something edible with the taste dependent upon what time of day/night it is and whether I have partaken in any goodies. But I acknowledge that Foxe was on point because humans have been deceiving other humans since the beginning of time. Some may be sinister, like mailing a box of anthrax. Others may be for selfish reasons, like Justin Timberlake and his D in a box. Or there’s the “packaging psychology” that is employed by some companies to make products seem more valuable. Whatever the case may be, opening up a box is usually fraught with the unknown. Take rookies for fantasy baseball. They are always wrapped in pretty paper, with bows and other shiny ornaments to make us drool over. But after looking inside, there is often nothing but emptiness, resulting in placement into the garbage. Where one man’s trash can result in another’s treasure. Damn, I’m a professional. This week’s dive is for Jac Caglianone of the Kansas City Royals.

Jac Caglianone is 22 years old, 6’5″, 250 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was selected by the Royals with the sixth overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft.

Since being called up to the majors, Caglianone is slashing .203/.250/.344 with two home runs, three runs, and four RBI. The walk rate is 4.4%, strikeout rate is 19.1% and ISO is .141.

Caglianone racked up 229 minor league plate appearances this year. The walk rate was 10.5%, strikeout rate was 20.1% and ISO was .271. He hit 15 home runs, 41 runs, 56 RBI, and stole two bases while slashing .322/.389/.593.

Most rookies struggle during their first taste of MLB action, but the low strikeout rate is reassuring while the BABIP is only .224, so he’s been unfortunate.

The average exit velocity is 89.5 mph, the barrel rate is 11.8% and the hard hit rate is 47.1%. The contact rate in the zone is 87.8%. Those are pretty good numbers, especially for a rookie. Both of his homers have come against left-handed pitching as well. The number that stands out, though, is the bat speed of 77.3 mph. If he qualified, that would place him fifth in MLB. Oneil Cruz is the leader at 78.5 mph.

Now for the bad. The launch angle is only five degrees, and the ground ball rate is 51%. In the minor leagues, the ground ball rate was often in the mid-40 percent range. The swinging strike rate is 13% and the chase rate is 37.2%. He’s also struggled at home.

The mammoth frame and 80-grade power is so enticing with Jac Caglianone, especially with the sub-20% strikeout rate. But, but, but….the ballpark doesn’t tickle the loins, and I do worry about the plate discipline numbers, especially as pitchers start figuring out the best way to attack him. Caglianone isn’t taking walks, the swing rate is high, and he’s chasing pitches out of the zone. While he has seen some bad BABIP luck, I fear that the strikeout rate is going to increase from here.

Getting sent back down to Triple-A wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Then he will get dropped in fantasy leagues. After he destroys Triple-A again and gets called back up, is when I will take a stab. That said, it’s well within the range of outcomes that Jac Caglianone figures it out, so I’m not dismissing that possibility. I just think it’s unlikely.