One Man’s Trash: I Snuck Into the Varsho

The Daulton Varsho Trilogy has been an entertaining one, full of ups and downs, laughter and grief, expectations and disappointments, birth, death, and resurrection. He made his MLB debut in 2020, showed enticing promise in 2021 with 11 home runs and six stolen bases in 315 plate appearances, resulting in a top 100 ADP heading into 2022, when he broke out with 27 home runs and 16 home runs in 592 plate appearances, which caused his ADP to meteorically rise into the top 40 for the following season. While he ended with 20 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 581 plate appearances, it was viewed as a disappointing season. To pour salt on the wounds, he lost catcher eligibility heading into this season and returned to the 200 ADP range he had in 2021. <takes a long puff of the inhaler> I need a cigarette now.

Usually, I dumpster dive or write up players who have seen significant changes in roster percentage, for better or for worse. The great thing about no one reading my work <HI, GREY!> is that I can do whatever I want! Yippeee! My curiosity had me intrigued by what Varsho has been doing lately, which is slash .348/.423/1.000 over the last 26 plate appearances, resulting in four home runs, seven runs, eight RBI, and two stolen bases.

On the season, Varsho is slashing .246/.316/.565 with six home runs, 15 runs, 13 RBI, and two stolen bases. The walk rate is 9.2%, strikeout rate is 26.3%, ISO is .319 and BABIP is .256.

The batting average was .246 back in 2021, then declined over the next two seasons to .235 and .220, but is back there again. For now. Varsho has always had a low BABIP, but the walk rate is back to 2021 levels while the strikeout rate is the highest since his rookie season. The ISO of .319 is well above the prior career high of .207 he posted two seasons ago. He currently has the fifth-highest mark in MLB.

Looking at the Statcast numbers, the average exit velocity is 88.6 mph. In the prior three seasons, Varsho was remarkably consistent with 87.7, 87.7 and 87.8 marks. The launch angle is a career-high 27.1 degrees. Last season, it was at 20.5. The barrel rate of 10.2% is the same as his great 2022 season.

The plate discipline numbers show that he’s being more selective. The chase rate has plummeted from the low-30s to 24.5%. He’s swinging at fewer pitches in general, but the swing rate has increased for pitches in the strike zone.

The thing that jumped out to me when digging into Varsho was that he’s crushing fastballs this season. In the prior three seasons, Fangraphs showed that he had a negative value against the pitch. This season, he’s producing 6.0 runs above average. Statcast shows that he’s batting .289 against fastballs compared to .229 last season while the SLG is .763 versus .418. The exit velocity is 89.1 mph this season. It was only 86.8 mph last season.

Last season, Varsho saw the fastball 58.3% of the time. This season, that number is at 53.7%, while the breaking ball usage has gone from 25.6 to 30.3%. He’s batting only .105 against breaking pitches. Last season, he was at .212. Varsho is also crushing offspeed pitches (.333 BA and .417 SLG compared to .198 BA and .341 SLG last season).

The logical conclusion is that pitchers will likely start throwing more breaking ball pitches with fewer fastballs. But that looks like it’s already manifested, and Varsho seems to be spitting on those and has become a much more patient as a hitter. It will be interesting to see how this cat-and-mouse game progresses, as Varsho has made the adjustment. The heater doesn’t look like it’s been luck induced or anything of that nature. It looks real. Now let’s see how the pitchers adjust to the adjustment, then how Varsho adjusts to those adjustments.