One Man’s Trash: I May One Day Believe In Dustin

Change is not always good. I used to be a Bruce Lee-esque 185 pounds. Now? I’m a 250-pound, all-you-can-eat Korean BBQ grade of meat. But when in a state of despair, change is vital, even if it does not produce the best outcome. At least you give the universe a chance to work its magic, and life often finds a way. Dustin May has had a career of Grecian proportions. The fiery red hair matched the blazing fastball, but batters were rarely distracted and put bat to ball more often than not. In addition, the injury gods were not kind, limiting him to 348.2 innings over eight MLB seasons, but May has changed. Do we dare believe?

Dustin May is 28 years old, 6-foot-6, 180 pounds, and throws from the right side. May was selected by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the third round of the 2016 MLB draft.

Throughout his minor league career, May displayed excellent control and did not allow many long balls. The strikeout rate was in the 7-8 K/9 range despite throwing high-90s with the fastball.

May debuted in the majors during the 2019 season. The minor league track record transferred, as the K/9 was 8.31, BB/9 was 1.3, and HR/9 was 0.52. May averaged 95.8 mph on the fastball and posted a 2.9 FIP over 34.2 innings.

The following season, Dustin May was the Opening Day starter due to Clayton Kershaw suffering a back injury. He pitched 56 innings, and the numbers slipped: 7.07 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, and 1.45 HR/9. The 4.62 FIP was much higher than the 2.57 ERA. This was the Covid-shortened season with no fans in the stands, so the change in production is understandable. May did average 99 mph on the fastball, though.

Then the injury gods got bored and went to work.

Dustin May underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021. He pitched only 30 innings in 2022 due to a back injury. 2023 was filled with elbow surgery and a procedure for a UCL sprain. The 2024 season was cut short due to an esophageal tear. Even Homer is shaking his head while mumbling that his Odyssey was nothing compared to this.

May finally pitched more than 60 innings in a season during the 2025 campaign – 132.1 innings with both the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox. The K/9 was 8.37, BB/9 was 3.81, and HR/9 was 1.43. The 4.88 FIP supported the 4.96 ERA while the fastball averaged 95.5 mph.

He then signed a one-year, $12.5 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals for this season.

Through 24.2 innings, May is posting a 7.3 K/9, 1.82 BB/9, and 1.09 HR/9. The fastball is back up, averaging 97.3 mph while the 3.95 FIP is much lower than the 5.84 ERA, as the BABIP is an elevated .395.

In the season opener, May got blasted for six earned runs in four innings. The following start was worse, serving up seven earned runs in 3.1 innings. May was bad, but he was also unfortunate as the BABIP was over .500 in both of these contests. The FIP was only 2.39 compared to the 13.5 ERA in the opener.

In the three starts since, Dustin May has gone 5.1, six, and six innings while allowing only one earned run in each of those contests.

Tampa Bay and Detroit were the first two matchups, and the Rays and Tigers are 14th and 15th in wRC+ and 13th and 14th in wOBA, so decent offenses but not world beaters. I think May’s performances had more to do with ramping up and getting comfortable with a new pitch mix.

Throughout his MLB career, May was a sinkerball pitcher, utilizing the pitch 50% of the time in his first two seasons in the majors. He threw the fastball only 6% of the time. Over the years, the sinker usage came down to 30% while the fastball usage went up to 20%.

This season, the sinker usage is only 18.9%, while May is utilizing the fastball 29.3% of the time. He started incorporating a slider two seasons ago, and he’s throwing the pitch 19.4% of the time. The changeup is being thrown 8.2%, compared to the 2.9% career rate.

Last season, Dustin May threw the sweeper 39.3%, sinker 33.5%, and fastball 16.6%. This season, the pitch distribution is fastball 29.3%, sweeper 19.4%, sinker 18.9%, cutter 16.1%, changeup 8.2%, and curveball 8.2%. It’s a red-headed Yu Darvish!

Despite the high velocity, the fastball still only has a whiff rate of 15%, so that makes me sad. That said, he’s able to keep batters off balance with the diverse pitch mix now.

Is he as bad as the first two starts? Naw. Is he as good as the last three starts? Niet. Is he great for fantasy? Hells to the no. He just doesn’t miss enough bats, but he’s certainly viable in the right matchup.