One Man’s Trash: Dubon It

Normally, I try and emulate Grey with a funny, witty, 2nd-level intro, but all that results is an intro. That is why Grey is the GOAT. Luckily, the universe has provided everything for me this week. Jam On It was, is, and will forever be The Jam. And that is how Mauricio Dubon fans must be feeling early in the season. Likely rostered for his multi-eligibility, Dubon has actually done baseball things and has been added in actual leagues due to his production. What a time to be alive! Let’s dig in to see if Dubon will have staying power like Newcleus, or will he be another Milli Vanilli?

Mauricio Dubon is 31 years old, 5-foot-11, 173 pounds, and bats from the right side. The Boston Red Sox selected him in the 26th round of the 2013 MLB draft. Three seasons later, he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. Three years after that, he was sent to the San Francisco Giants. The Houston Astros acquired him….class? Yup, three years later. Last year, which was after another three-year stint, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves.

Early in his minor league career, Dubon displayed excellent plate discipline with stolen base prowess. He often batted in the high-.200s and went over .300 multiple times. He stole at least 30 bases three times. There was little power, though, as he never reached double-digit home runs, but the strikeout rate was often 15% or below.

In 2019 at Triple-A with the Brewers and Giants, Dubon hit 20 home runs in 539 plate appearances while maintaining a 12.6% strikeout rate. The ISO was .175.

Mauricio Dubon made his MLB debut in 2020 with the Giants, slashing .274/.337/.389 with an 8.5% walk rate, 20.3% strikeout rate, and .115 ISO in 177 plate appearances. Throughout his MLB career, the strikeout rate was often in the low-teens, but he didn’t take many walks or display much power or speed. Dubon played around 135 games a season, and the ISO was around .100.

Through 11 games and 42 plate appearances to start this season, Dubon is slashing .350/.381/.575 with a 4.8% walk rate, 19% strikeout rate, and .225 ISO! He’s hit two home runs, scored seven runs, and driven in seven.

First off, the BABIP is .400, so Dubon has gotten lucky. That’s going to regress, which will bring the slash down. The walk rate is right at career norms, but the strikeout rate is up. With the increased power, it’s not too surprising.

The Statcast numbers are illuminating, as the average exit velocity is 91.1 mph! The career average is 85.9 mph. The barrel rate of 12.5% is a career-high by a significant margin, as he had never been above 4.5% previously.

Has the approach changed?

The GB/FB has remained the same, but he is pulling the ball a little more. The pull rate is 40.6% this season after being in the mid-30s for most of his MLB career. The launch angle is 10.2 degrees, which is lower than the 13.2 degree mark.

Looking at the plate discipline numbers, he’s chasing fewer pitches and swinging less in general. The overall swing rate is 47.3% after being in the mid-50s the prior five seasons. The 63.5% swing rate in the strikezone is well below the 74% career rate. There’s been no increase in bat speed, and it sits at a meh 69.4 mph.

I just can’t get behind this hot start for Mauricio Dubon. Maybe if the pull rate was over 50%, with an increase in both launch angle and bat speed. That said, I’ve read that the ball this season may be “juicier,” so maybe that allows the Dubons of the world to continue getting more chicks, but I’m highly skeptical. If a roster spot is available, I don’t mind taking the shot, and the multi-position eligibility (OF/2B/3B/SS) is valuable, but I’d keep expectations in check.