One Man’s Trash: Burns So Hot!

Most things hot are highly sought after but have tons of risk attached to them. Fire: provides warmth and heat to purify water while eradicating bacteria in meat. But it can melt skin and reduce one to the bone. Hot sauce: provides kick for the palate. But it often induces leg cramps from sacrificing to the Porcelain God. My 13-year-old nephew went out with the hot, popular girl at the start of the school year. He said it was awesome because, well, she was hot. But he said the baggage that came with it was unendurable, mainly due to her entourage. Chase Burns of the Cincinnati Reds has been one of the hottest prospects since he was drafted in the 2024 MLB draft. So far, not so hot. Let’s dig in.

Chase Burns is 6′ 3″, 210 pounds, and throws from the right side. He was selected by the Reds with the second overall pick and broke the MLB signing bonus record with the $9.25 million awarded. The fastball can get to above 100 mph, while the slider is one of the best.

Burns dominated the minors this season, posting a K/9 of 12.14 in 66 innings. In addition, the BB/9 was only 1.77 while the HR/9 was 0.68. That resulted in a 1.77 ERA across three levels.

On June 24th, Chase Burns made his MLB debut and allowed three earned runs in five innings while striking out eight against the New York Yankees in Great American Small Park.

The next start? Ruh roh.

In Boston, Burns got lit up for five earned runs in 0.1 innings. There was chatter about tipping pitches. Maybe. Maybe not. In his next start, Burns went into Philadelphia and allowed one earned run in 4.2 innings while striking out seven and walking four.

Most young pitchers, especially the flame throwers, have control issues in MLB. Chase Burns is no different, as the walk rate is a robust 12.2%. The strikeout rate is 30.6%, though. And he’s averaging 98.1 mph on the fastball while the swinging strike rate is 10.7%.

The famed slider has been his weakest pitch, though, as it has a -2.9 run value. And he’s thrown it 31.7% of the time. The 26.5% chase rate makes sense in that context.

The scouting report on MLB.com:

“His fastball sits in the upper 90s and touches 102 mph, but it did get hit a fair amount at Wake and he allowed 10 homer s off the pitch in 2024, according to Synergy, because it tends to straighten out with a lack of deception.”

MLB hitters are laying off the slider and waiting for the fastball. And they are pounding Burns. The average exit velocity is 91.7 mph, the barrel rate is 10.7% and the hard hit rate is a whopping 57.1%.

It’s not surprising that the ERA is 8.1. Granted, it’s only been 10 innings, but not all is doom and gloom. Even in the limited sample size, the FIP is much lower at 4.48, and there are indications that Burns has been unlucky. The BABIP is way up at .423 while the strand rate is 49.4%.

Great American Small Park isn’t a great environment, especially since Chase Burns isn’t a groundball pitcher. That said, he’s only 22 years old and has made three MLB starts. The stuff is legit. I think it’s a matter of getting comfortable, improving the control, and sequencing pitchers better. The ride may be a bumpy one, but I think the risk of getting burned is worth the risk of the hotness that Burns can deliver.