One Man’s Trash: Benson Hurts Pitches

There are many reasons why I wanted to write up Will Benson this week. For starters, he’s been on an absolute heater over the last nine games, smashing six home runs in the last five contests. He also reminds me of NYC, particularly Brooklyn. My wife grew up in Bay Ridge, and Bensonhurst is a smidge to the east. On a side note, the borough of Brooklyn has 90 neighborhoods. Only 15 start with the letter B: Brownsville, Beford-Stuyvesant, Bedford, Bushwick, Brooklyn Heights, Brooklyn Navy Yard, Bridge Plaza, Boerum Hill, Barren Island, Bergen Beach, Brighton Beach, Bay Ridge, Bensonhurst, Bath Beach, and Borough Park. Shameful. Anyways, when I first met my wife’s family back in 2008, most of Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst area was Italian. Now? Bensonhurst has the largest population of residents born in China and Hong Kong of any neighborhood in NYC. Once the change happened, it solidified quickly. Now for the professional segue. Benson has obvious flaws, but we’ve seen plenty of times in the past when players have grown, matured and blossomed into something else. Let’s dig in.

Will Benson is 26 years old, 6’4″, 230 pounds, and bats from the left side. The Cleveland Indians selected him with the 14th overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft. He was traded to the Cincinnati Reds prior to the start of the 2023 season.

Throughout his minor league career, the walk rate was always above 10%. But the strikeout rate was often above 30%. The batting average was often in the .200 range while the ISO was usually over .200.

He received his first taste of the majors in 2022. Benson accrued 28 plate appearances that season and didn’t fare well. The slash was .182/.250/.200 with a 4.9% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate, and .018 ISO.

After the trade to the Reds, Benson was given 329 plate appearances and contributed 11 home runs, 51 runs, 31 RBI, and 19 stolen bases. The slash was .275/.365/.498 with a 12.2% walk rate, 31.3% strikeout rate, and .223 ISO. That season was BABIP-fueled, though, with a .391 mark.

The following season, he received 388 plate appearances and finished with 14 home runs, 41 runs, 43 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. The walk rate was 10.3,% but the strikeout rate ballooned to 39.7%. The regression fairies also sprinkled their dust, as the BABIP was .282, resulting in a .187/.274/.376 slash. The ISO was .190.

Will Benson started this season in Triple-A and racked up 139 plate appearances. He finally got the call-up in May and has since received 37 plate appearances. Benson has hit a home run in five straight games and totaled six over that span.

The walk rate is 9.1%, but the strikeout rate has only been 18.2%!. The BABIP is .368, so that .400/.455/1.000 slash is going to come down. I also have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that Benson won’t be able to maintain the .600 ISO.

The Statcast numbers are gorgeous: 94.4 average exit velocity, 13.5 degree launch angle, 25% barrel rate, and 58.3% hard hit rate. The Statcast page has plenty of red up top, and the sprint speed of 29.1 ft/sec is in the 93rd percentile. Benson was often in the 89 to 90 mph range for exit velocity prior to this season, and the hard hit and barrel rates were around 10% and 40%, respectively.

The swinging strike rate is only 9.1%, and the chase rate is an obscene 21.3%. That said, Benson has always had a low chase rate. If he qualified, the 21.3% mark would place him in the top 25 of MLB. For shits and giggles, Juan Soto leads baseball with a 15.2% chase rate. As for the swinging strike rate, that number has been in the teens for all of his MLB career.

The biggest bugaboo for Benson, though, is that he’s a platoon bat. He’s only had five plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season and, over his career, he’s had 126. The career slash against lefties is .138/.240/.211 with a .073 ISO. As a result, the best-case scenario is 400 plate appearances, but Steamer only has him projected for 173 more this season. Getting sent down to Triple-A after the inevitable cold streak is plausible.

Now, Joc Pederson has been able to have much success as a platoon bat. He may not be the best example due to his frigid start this season…I BELIEVE!!!….but in two of the prior three seasons with two different teams, Pederson hit 23 home runs in 433 and 449 plate appearances, strictly against righties.

Benson plays in one of the best hitter parks in MLB, but, but, but….Benson is still batting sixth or seventh in the order. Pederson has been towards the top of the order, batting leadoff to cleanup. In addition, the strikeout rate was always in the low 20% range for Pederson. While the strikeout rate has improved for Benson, it’s still at 27%, and the sample size is small, so a return to over 30% is well within the range of outcomes.

I would not view Benson as more than a streamer in good matchups for daily leagues.