We’re a month into the season already! More than that, actually. I know it’s still too early to bank winners and fire those bad teams into the sun. But hey, I can’t help but at least think along those lines
Those sample sizes are getting better, so how about another week of Buy, Sell, or Hold? I have a few guys here off to varying degrees of disappointing Fantasy starts. Just to review, I know there’s not much actual action to take here besides trades. The three guys I have teed up this week should be held in all formats. I am just going on the perceived value shifts since draft season and how I feel about them. Yeah, it’s kind of subjective, but I do add actual Yahoo trades to try to see how the market is perceiving them. We don’t know the context of the Yahoo league, so I look for trades that probably don’t have major keeper elements attached to them.
Kyle Tucker
.235 3 HR 3 Steals
It’s kind of an underwhelming start for the $60 million signing that ruined baseball (I’m kidding, I’m a Mets fan). And it doesn’t really look like bad luck or anything odd, he has a .310 wOBA vs. a .305 xwOBA. He went from being basically really good at everything to incredibly blah so far this year.
His K% is way up, from 14.7% to 22.4%, and his EV is down to a career low 88.5, as is his 6.5% Barrel%. The Dodgers recently dropped him from 2nd to 4th in their order. He has plenty of things in his favor as far as perception goes. The Dodgers remain the best team in the league and in our world. Tucker’s draft comps are mostly off to slow starts. JRod and Tatis come to mind, and Jackson Chourio hasn’t played yet. Also, basically none of the big FA signings from last winter that switched teams have started well.
Verdict: Buy
I am a “Buy” on the assumption that Tucker’s stock has fallen a bit. He’s the most relaxed looking hitter in MLB short of Cody Bellinger’s “Dazed and Confused” meme. But it’s safe to assume he’s pressing a bit under the weight of his massive contract on a team with Three-Peat expectations. It’s still just a month into the season, I expect him to get it going soon, though I admit there’s nothing in the underlying metrics that suggest it just yet
Recent Yahoo Trades
I assume there’s more to the Elly trade because Tucker was below him heading into the season. The Sanchez trade is probably more about team specific needs. But the others? I mean, definitely no, I would way rather Tucker. Soriano has, of course, gotten off to a historically great start, but that trade is the definition of buying high and selling low. You don’t get the stats in the bank already, and he’s a heavy groundball guy with a shaky defense behind him. Trout, I love what’s doing, but it was also one super hot week at this point. There’s a really good chance Tucker does something similar at some point this year.
Taylor Ward
.321 1 HR, 1 Steal
Ward came over from the Angels in a deal that looked kind of odd in every which way. The Orioles traded away their once future ace Grayson Rodriguez and his many years of team control for one season of the very good but not superstar Angels 32 year old corner outfielder. Ward popped 25 homers in 2024 and then 36 last year, and was moving to a much better lineup and a park that plays about the same for right power (112 in Anaheim the last two seasons vs. 109 in Camden Yards).
He has but a single solitary homer as I type this. But yet he’s slashing an excellent .321/.430/.472 and 157 wRC+. What are we to make of this?
Well, he’s undergone a complete profile change. Goodbye power, hello hit tool. He has 68.1 MPH bat speed (9th percentile) and just a 1.2% FastSwing% (11th lowest among qualified hitters). It’s produced a super elite 15.6% BB% vs. 14.8%K% on just a 16.9% Whiff% (87th percentile). His EV has stayed the same 90.1, as he sported last year, but the Barrel% is down from 13.7% to 5.7%.
Verdict: Hold
His metamorphosis probably works well from a real life basis. He’s getting on base at the top of a good lineup on a team that’s likely in the playoff mix. For our purposes, that will help his run totals, but you know what else helps run totals? Hitting homers. We didn’t sign up for a better version of Sal Frelick here. Granted, he’s a much better version as Frelick has that same 1 homer and 1 steal but is hitting just .205. But we were drafting a power bat, and this approach change might turn him into a 10-15 homer guy. He should be rostered in every format, and I would say his perceived value is pretty identical to his pre-season value, but now it depends on team-specific needs.
Recent Yahoo Trades
OK, I’d rather MH II and Luzardo in a heartbeat over Ward, but the Suarez one (presumably pre injury) is interesting. Ward’s power spike last year came with a .228 average, so the current version of a healthy Geno is pretty similar to the Ward we thought we would get this year. I think that’s exactly where I’d be with Ward if needed the pop
Jackson Merrill
.204, 3 homers, 5 steals
It’s nice to see the steals bounce back as Merril had 16 as a rookie, but only 1 last year as he fought through injuries. But part of what made Merrill a breakout fantasy star in 2024 was 5 category excellence, and that has eluded him since. His K% has climbed from 17% in 2024 to 24.5% now, with a Whiff% up from 20.5% to 28.9%. He’s swinging faster (73.2 vs. 72 Bat Speed) and losing plate skills without gaining power as his Barrel% is about the same, and his EV has dropped from 90.4 to 88.2.
He has great context as he currently bats 3rd on a Padres lineup that still looks excellent at the top. But what are we really getting here? He’s hitting more grounders, and his average will tick up. But he has just a .233 xBA, so it’s still pretty rough. He hit .292 in 2024 at age 21, that looks like a pipe dream now
Verdict: Sell
Merrill dropped from a 3rd rounder in 15 teamers in 2025 to 6th rounder or so this year. He was probably never truly healthy in 2025, so everyone and I had hope he’d bounce back to some extent this year. But so far there’s no evidence of it. When a guy ramps up bat speed, you expect more power and hope it does not wreck contact. But as mentioned above, we are seeing the contact downside here and less pop. That’s not good. I’m sure his price is lower now, and given the choice, I would sell at the modest reduction even though I know he’s still just 23 years old.
Recent Yahoo Trades
The Griffin one is really interesting, considering the Pirates phenom has not done all that much just yet. Let’s assume it’s a pure redraft league, who would you rather for 2026? I think I might go with Griffin right now. Merrill is running, which is nice, but Griffin will run more, and I’m not sure Merrill ultimately beats him by much or at all in the other stats.
No, I would not trade Merrill for Chapman. I can’t imagine a format where that makes any sense, it’s not like Chapman is ripping the cover off the ball either.
Good read, thanks….please rank these Ofers ROS: Ward, Soler, W.Abreu and Carlos Cortez. Thank you.
Ive got a pitching logjam coming up. Currently have Crochet, Ashcraft, Messick, Suarez, Tolle, McLean, and Sheehan, Lodolo and Greene on the IL. Thinking about moving Ashcraft or Messick with how high their value is right now. What would you consider fair value for them? Something like Bellinger or riley greene? Reach as far as Ketel Marte?
In a 12 team 5 OF league, is L.Robert a buy or sell?