There’s this thing that happens with fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term). They get crazy excited about a prospect being called up. A rookie gets their goose-willies pumping through their chest. Prospects with pedigree who have never had a moment of MLB play? That’s the rookie nookie the people love. Show me a guy with a 60 grade speed and 60-grade power who has never set out on his MLB field? I’ll show you a guy fantasy baseballers want to marry metaphorically. Well, maybe some literally. There’s nothing like it. Then, one game after they’re called up and they go 0-for-3 with a walk, and it becomes, “Get them the eff off my fantasy team! Seriously?! How did I ever like this guy? He sucks so bad! No, I am being serious now. Never talk to me about that guy again, he sucks. Now, this other prospect, who is due to be called up? Oh, daddy, loves him. I’m picking that guy up!” It’s rather funny, and don’t modify with “rather” when talking to someone because they’ll think you’re British and/or punch you. Both are equally bad, being punched or people thinking you’re British. So, this happened to Matt Shaw. In the minors in 2024, he went 21/31/.284 in 443 ABs and people were lined up around the block to grab him like he was this new bagel place that just opened that was written up as having the best bagels. Sadly, you get three bagels from Shaw, and you start looking at the resurgence of Javier Baez. So, what can we expect from Matt Shaw for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I’m currently rolling out my 2026 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Matt Shaw sleeper:
First thing I do is see what a guy is projected to bat in the order. Matt Shaw is projected to bat 9th, and [holds nose] Stinky. Don’t like that at all. Last year the nine-hole hitter in the majors averaged 65 runs and 59 RBIs. The two-hole hitter averaged 97 runs and 83 RBIs. Massive difference. Teams are not all the same. If the Dodgers’ nine-hole hitter is Andy Pages, then I don’t love it, but it’s a lot better than the Pirates’ nine-hole hitter. Cubs’ lineup is solid though. Maybe not the Dodgers, but definitely not the Pirates. So, then I look at the likelihood that Matt Shaw stays in the nine-hole. That’s where things become more optimistic. Is Michael Busch really a leadoff hitter? Lol, stop. Is Ian Happ a three-hole hitter? Dur, but also: Dur. Then, moving Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong around that much in a hypothetical lineup feels foolish, but who knows? Injuries happen and I wouldn’t be here about to write a Matt Shaw sleeper if I thought he was stuck in the nine-hole indefinitely, but he has the chance for a bad lineup spot more than most fantasy baseball sleepers I’m going to write up. If the upside wasn’t as glorious as I think it is, I wouldn’t be bothering.
As mentioned in the opening, he was a 60-grade power and speed guy, so let’s look at some clips of those:
MATT SHAW FOR 3! pic.twitter.com/UGuJi03hQq
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 22, 2025
His hands are the sweet stuff. More sweetness:
Matt Shaw smashes his 3rd home run since the All-Star break ? pic.twitter.com/S5J2gSv5JP
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 23, 2025
That ball had no business getting out, and, yet, here we are watching it. Last year, I pointed this out, and let me do it again for ya:
Some guys stats are just so undeniable; some guys are so close to the majors or have already debuted; some guys hit the ball 507 feet.
It goes on like that for a solid 12 pages of Google. Because I know you’re thirsty, I’ll show you the actual homer now:
Top 6 | BOOM ?
That’s a Shaw GRAND SLAM and the lead for the Terps
Terps 7, Iowa 6 pic.twitter.com/xSrsudEi9z
— Maryland Baseball (@TerpsBaseball) March 31, 2023
That’s it. It’s with a metal bat into 30 MPH winds, and there’s no wild scream from the announcer indicating Matt Shaw hit the ball into orbit. 507-foot homer and it’s unofficially called that by someone named Big Donkey on Twitter. The official Terps account, quoting above, doesn’t even make mention of the ball going 507 feet. I am reticent to discount anything from a donkey, because A) We all love Donkey Teeth. B) Discounting a donkey makes a jackass out of you. C) There’s no C. How’sever, this feels a little akin to modern myth-making, he said alliteratively. It’s a modern day Paul Bunyan tale. Or akin to Pat Burrell’s exploits in college. Can we believe this is really a 507-foot blast by Matt Shaw? I don’t know. Does it matter? Harder question to answer.
Here’s a few more clips, less 507-foot-ish:
Matt Shaw shows off the speed ?
His triple makes it 4-2 #Cubs! pic.twitter.com/NcbRRNFF64
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) March 8, 2024
And uno mas so you can see him run some more:
.@Cubs 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw with a 2-run triple! pic.twitter.com/sjVTF8fFxL
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) February 27, 2024
There’s a ton of clips of him. I will say this, the prospect community and Cubs fans already love Matt Shaw. Well, so do I. He was hyped for a reason. He has insane power and speed. Last year he went 13/17/.226. Bleh on the average, but it was with a .262 BABIP (unlucky) and a 21.5 K%, excellent for a rookie. Shaw’s about to launch. I won’t project him for it, but his last minor league year of 21/31/.284 feels very doable in the majors. I honestly think this sleeper has potential to be a 30/30/.280 hitter and a top 20 player. Crazy? Yeah, sure, and I bet you expected that from Pete Crow-Armstrong last year. You know the future, clearly. No? Oh, well, lucky you’re here because I do! For 2026 fantasy baseball, I’ll give Matt Shaw projections of 79/22/69/.266/26 in 517 ABs with a chance for much more.
Swanson batting 8th and Smith 9th? Dang!