C’mon, what are you making me do here? A Kyle Tucker overrated post? *sucks teeth* Damn, I’m disappointed with myself. I was the one telling you to draft him last year. Now, I have to tell you not to draft him. Then tell you to draft him again next year? Then don’t draft him in 2022? Then draft him in 2023? What, am the Bret Saberhagen of fantasy ‘perts? You’re making me embarrass myself. Why do you do this? Does it inflate your ego at the expense of mine? Fine, but remember that when you’re hanging out with your new girlfriend you picked up based on your newfound confidence that you discovered from roundly trouncing someone you don’t know personally on the internet about Kyle Tucker. I’m helping you get laid! You’re welcome. My job is done here. Oh, yeah, Kyle Tucker. His ADP of 29 overall is the one of the more puzzling things in the 2021 fantasy draft season. Last year, he went 9/8/.268 and…what is going on here? I mean, I like him too, but the collective you boosted him 220 draft spots from his ADP last year based on that? By the way, the Collective You has some great adult contemporary songs like, “Paying the Bills with an SBA,” and “It’s Trash Day Again?” Just absolute adulting like no one else! So, what can we expect from Kyle Tucker for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Take me out of the equation and look at Kyle Tucker’s Steamer projections: 82/28/86/.255/19. Here’s Player B: 67/22/62/.254/11. Player B is Austin Hays. Guess I could’ve just said his name if I was gonna give it away immediately. Here’s Byron Buxton’s projections: 74/25/75/.263/19. So, there are cheaper Tuckers later. Point Established in 2021 by Grey Albright, Fantasy Master Lothario (don’t abbreviate it). Fine, they’re not quite Kyle Tucker, but they’re also being drafted anywhere from 100 to 200 picks later. There’s a difference in runs and a bit more power and RBIs and–Okay, can we really expect all those stats from Tucker? *makes iffy face, extends hand and makes iffy hand gesture* Damn, double iffy!
First off, literally, where is he batting in the lineup? We all know Dusty Baker likes young players about as much as he likes running out of toothpicks. Seeing him projected to hit 7th, which honestly feels a bit pessimistic but maybe he sees a few hundred at-bats from that slot. So, 82/86 are in the realm of reality. I have him at 86/83, but that’s more because I think he can move up and Altuve can move down. My bigger problem is his power/speed and average. Last but not least that will be least for me, his average looks below .255. He wasn’t exploited last year, but anyone with even a correspondence degree from the Fantasy Baseball College at Charleston can immediately tell you he is susceptible to breaking pitches and changes. He hit .303 vs. fastballs, and I’m surprised anyone ever threw him one. He hit .208 and .231 off breaking and offspeed respectfully, and sliders specifically resulted in a .143 average. Why throw him anything else? At some point it must’ve become apparent, because he saw 159 sliders last year, easily the 2nd most seen pitch after four-seamers. Tucker’s about to see more sliders than Pablo Sandoval on an all-beef diet. And, if you think, “Meh, not everyone throws a slider, he’ll be okay.” Sure, and his batting average against curves was .217. Does no one throw curves either? Maybe he takes a step forward on these pitches, but you’re hoping for that at pick 29 overall? Then, you think to yourself, “Well, he did take a huge step forward in 2020.” Did he though? For unstints, look at all these arrows down for 2020:
Those are steps forward like a paradox staircase in Inception and…*free falling in slo mo*. In fairness, he only had 131 ABs prior to 2020. Yeah, and he had a walloping 209 ABs last year. Big samples here, which she never said, except sarcastically.
Next up, how about those 28 homers Steamer projects? I have him down for a 15% HR/FB rate, which is actually up from his 13.2% rate last year with just a slight dip to a 39% fly ball rate. Gives him roughly 26 HRs, and I projected him for 23 homers, because I’m accounting for a bit of Dusty risk. Steamer gives him an extra two homers. Most projections have him sitting in the 25-homer range. 25 homers is a bad three-week stretch or “the ball is now dead” away from being 20 homers. No one is thinking the power is about to explode. Maybe it does, but again you’re hoping for a step forward. This is the 2nd step you’re counting on. You line dancing or you drafting at 29 overall?
Finally, his speed. It’s 40-grade. Haha, I mean, I’m sorry. Last year, he was as “fast” as Kris Bryant and David Bote. Yes, I’m capable of non-Cubs comparisons. Geez, lay off! He was as “fast” as Mark Canha. Lots of 25-steal guys here or no? No, that’s your answer there. Honestly, the longer I look at his speed numbers, I’m surprised I projected him for 17 steals, and not 12 or under. I know, I know, I KNOW! He went 30/30 in Triple-A. That’s the world’s biggest fantasy baseball trap, after looking at ERA for a pitcher. Joc Pederson also went 30/30 once upon a time. Catchers don’t throw to 2nd base in the minors, they do one of those “makes arm throwing motion as the ball drops behind their back” like you do with your dog. He seems to be an efficient baserunner, so I did give him 17 steals, but this is not the makings of a 30-steal guy. Kyle Tucker could reach 85/30/95/.270/20 and surprise the heck out of me, but no one is projecting him for that, and his ADP is saying he better get exactly those numbers. Stamp him schmohawk and look elsewhere!
