In 85 major league at-bats, Ke’Bryan Hayes hit five homers, stole a bag and hit .376. That roughly translates to 645 homers, and 129 steals while hitting .376 in an equally productive 20-year career. Hard to argue he’s not a 1st ballot Hall of Famer.

You, a wet-under-the-collar-with-scurvy Pirates fan, “He still wouldn’t be the best player to come out of Pittsburgh. Hello, Barry Bonds.”
Me, a world-weary-peg-leg-having Pirates fan, “Bonds wasn’t a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. The Man stopped that from happening.”

Hey, they’re The Man, I simply live in The Man’s World. “If everyone left a penny, but didn’t take a penny, the jar to hold the pennies would need to be the size of the Silverdome, and be renamed the Copper-Plated Zinc Pennydome.” Not now, Mr. Prorater. “Oh, so you can prorate out Ke’Bryan Hayes’s stats, but I can’t prorate out a very simply equation. Cool, cool.” Well, whether you want to believe me, Mr. Prorater or Ke’Bryan Hayes’s September debut–Actually, that last one did happen, but is it real and repeatable? That’s what we have to figure out. Is it sustainable like this salmon I’m eating out of my lap to avoid waste. Don’t worry, I’m wearing plastic pants. If you forgot, here are the four highest OPS for major league players’ debut months since 1901: Yasiel Puig (hey whatever happened to this guy?) with 1.180; Albert Pujols in 2001 with 1.171; Rhys Hoskins in 2017 with 1.149 and Ke’Bryan Hayes with 1.144. Not bad company, but not Bad Company by Bad Company. So, what can we expect from Ke’Bryan Hayes for 2021 fantasy baseball?

Even if Ke’Bryan Hayes got jacked like post-Pittsburgh Bonds, none of his numbers from his debut month look sustainable. Sorry, but why beat around the bush when you can jam right into it? Hmm, that doesn’t sound right. Quickly:  Ke’s Bryan’s BABIP of .450 was an eeney-meeny bit high. His Launch Angle of 7.4 if solid, if you want to hit only ground balls, but not exactly going to produce a ton of fly balls, let alone home runs. His 30.8% fly ball rate was low for even him, but not totally out of his usual MO. Just not the MO for big power producers. Not entirely out of the realm of possibility, mind you. Yelich made a career of hitting very few fly balls, and Altuve’s not too far behind him.

In Ke’Bryan Hayes’s big month of September, he had a 25% HR/FB and would need to continue that to come close to a 5-homer per month guy. His minor league numbers speak more to a 3-homer per month. Small quibble maybe, but over a six-month season, he’s more of a 18-homer guy vs. 30 homers. Thankfully, he doesn’t just homer. In fact, if you read that a year ago, you’d think he did everything but homer. While not an extreme blazer like Trea Turner or someone obscenely fast, Hayes isn’t a complete dud for speed either. He’s a 55-grade speed guy, which should translate to 10+ bags, maybe 20 if he feels like putting on a show. All things considered, if you were to take this back to what he actually was prior to his huge debut, he was a solid contact guy who wasn’t immune to a walk. Maybe not quite a .300 hitter with neutral luck, as his xBA was last year, but not far off. In a neutral environment, he’s prolly close to a .320 BABIP, 18% K% and 11% BB%, which should come out to around a .285 average with his Launch Angle and propensity for line drives. This might not sound like it, but I’m a big Ke’Bryan Hayes guy. A Ke’Brystan, if you will. But being unrealistic doesn’t help anyone. Also, this is assuming the Pirates don’t do something stupid and pretend he has to work on his defense in the minors for the month of April. For 2021, I’ll give Ke’Bryan Hayes projections 66/16/74/.289/13 in 509 ABs with a chance for more.

 
  1. Dave D says:
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    Son of Charlie Hayes, no less. Nice write-up! He went 159 in my currently draftiing DC. I guess that’s about right if your projections are on the mark. Damn I love early drafting. I’m having a blast. I should be in mid-season form by the time the “early” Razz DCs go. Any chance you do a 2-hour instead of 4-hour? It might keep it from bogging down at times. Two hours seems plenty to me. My 30-minute DC has been completely awesome. I cant imagine going back to 4-hour.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m fine with either, if people prefer two hours…

      Kinda surprised Hayes went that high, tbh…guess that’s about right tho

      • Dave D says:
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        Its pretty easy now to not screw up with a draft queue that can be set uniquely for each round of the draft. Nobody has needed more time nor complained about the 30-min DC. I’d be really surprised if we were to do the two-hour That anyone would regret it.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, can’t imagine a down side as long as your queue’s set…Some people really do seem against setting their queue tho, as if that’s not who they want to draft, just decided a few hours prior

          • Dave D says:
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            Well, maybe that’d be a good thing for us on the ball folks… from a Darwinian perspective… hehe.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha, unless the real fish are the ones that don’t set their queue…tho, I accidentally haven’t in the past too

      • Dave D says:
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        Not sure where I left off but here’s 25-29:

        Round 29
        R29-15 Carter Kieboom3B
        R29-14 Adley RutschmanC(A)
        R29-13 Cristian PacheUT(A)
        R29-12 Brandon Belt1B
        R29-11 Pete FairbanksP(A)
        R29-10 Jose GarciaSS
        R29-9 Stephen PiscottyOF(A)
        R29-8 Daniel NorrisP(A)
        R29-7 Rio Ruiz3B(A)
        R29-6 Edward CabreraP(A)
        R29-5 J.A. HappP(A)
        R29-4 Wilson RamosC(A)
        R29-3 Jose IglesiasSS
        R29-2 Alex DickersonOF
        R29-1 Kevin KiermaierOF(A)
        Round 28
        R28-15 Jazz ChisholmSS(A)
        R28-14 Dean KremerP
        R28-13 Miguel CabreraUT
        R28-12 Zack BrittonP(A)
        R28-11 Edward OlivaresOF(A)
        R28-10 Luis Garcia2B
        R28-9 Roberto PerezC(A)
        R28-8 Colin Moran1B(A)
        R28-7 Justin UptonOF(A)
        R28-6 Lucas SimsP
        R28-5 Hanser Alberto2B(A)
        R28-4 Garrett RichardsP
        R28-3 David PetersonP(A)
        R28-2 Miguel AndujarOF
        R28-1 Carlos MartinezP
        Round 27
        R27-15 Myles StrawOF
        R27-14 Mike Brosseau3B
        R27-13 Sam HilliardOF(A)
        R27-12 Cal QuantrillP
        R27-11 Spencer Torkelson3B(A)
        R27-10 Josh StaumontP
        R27-9 Hunter HarveyP(A)
        R27-8 Jackie Bradley Jr.OF
        R27-7 JaCoby JonesOF(A)
        R27-6 Yimi GarciaP
        R27-5 Nick PivettaP
        R27-4 Luis UriasSS(A)
        R27-3 Martin MaldonadoC
        R27-2 Omar NarvaezC
        R27-1 Mike MinorP
        Round 26
        R26-15 Nick AhmedSS
        R26-14 Alec MillsP
        R26-13 Robbie GrossmanOF
        R26-12 Avisail GarciaOF
        R26-11 Adrian MorejonP
        R26-10 Alex ReyesP
        R26-9 Emmanuel ClaseP
        R26-8 Scott BarlowP
        R26-7 Kolten Wong2B
        R26-6 Noah SyndergaardDP
        R26-5 Brusdar GraterolP
        R26-4 Madison BumgarnerP(A)
        R26-3 Shogo AkiyamaOF(A)
        R26-2 Roman QuinnOF
        R26-1 Josh NaylorOF
        Round 25
        R25-15 Mauricio DubonOF
        R25-14 Adam WainwrightP
        R25-13 Corey DickersonOF(A)
        R25-12 Cesar Hernandez2B(A)
        R25-11 Carlos Santana1B
        R25-10 Daniel Ponce de LeonP
        R25-9 Justus SheffieldP
        R25-8 Luis Arraez2B
        R25-7 Jonathan Schoop2B
        R25-6 Brendan Rodgers2B
        R25-5 Craig KimbrelP(A)
        R25-4 Max StassiC
        R25-3 Miguel RojasSS
        R25-2 Bryan GarciaP
        R25-1 Yandy Diaz3B

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          This is pretty deep at this point, which is why it’s crazy to see guys like Wong, Sheffield, C-Mart, Hanser, Ruiz…Some of these RPs are solid picks too, considering how far out we are to what is known of bullpens

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Also, don’t love Miguel Rojas, but that late it’s a steal

            • Dave D says:
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              Yeah. Basically I punted 2B but will be fine, but I was super happy with him and Sheff. Great opportunities this early. Its kinda cool to have significant impact on early ADPs too.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                It would be interesting to look at this early, 1st week ADP compared to ADP in March, and who has moved the most — I forget has Puig been taken already?

                • Dave D says:
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                  He was taken #288. Possibly a great value.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    That’s insane value

                    • Dave D says:
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                      This is my OF after 38 rounds:

                      Bryce Harper
                      Luis Robert
                      Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
                      Victor Robles
                      David Peralta

                      Ryan Mountcastle

                      Justin Upton (OF)
                      Stephen Piscotty (OF)

                      Monte Harrison (OF)
                      Jake Fraley (OF)
                      Hunter Renfroe (OF)

                      Aristides Aquino (OF

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Wow, man, that is stacked…Last 4 flyers are a little weak, tho I like Fraley and who knows on Aquino, but the top 8 are nice

                  • Dave D says:
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                    Thanks, man. Yeah, hopefully I just need Monte to swipe the occasional bag. Top 6 Im real happy about.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, I still like Harrison for speed, but he did seem to suffer from Lewis Brinson Disease, unable to make contact

        • Dave D says:
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          History Draft
          BoardCurrent
          Round 34
          R34-15 Chris MartinP
          R34-14 Michael LorenzenP
          R34-13 Steven BraultP
          R34-12 Rich HillP(A)
          R34-11 Tyler O`NeillOF
          R34-10 Demarcus EvansP
          R34-9 Alex WoodP
          R34-8 Taylor TrammellUT(A)
          R34-7 A.J. PukP
          R34-6 Jarren DuranUT
          R34-5 Emilio PaganP
          R34-4 Yoenis CespedesUT(A)
          R34-3 Adrian HouserP(A)
          R34-2 Domingo SantanaOF(A)
          R34-1 Jose TrevinoC
          Round 33
          R33-15 Jose QuintanaP
          R33-14 Khris DavisUT(A)
          R33-13 Ryan HelsleyP(A)
          R33-12 Tom HatchP(A)
          R33-11 Orlando ArciaSS
          R33-10 Harrison BaderOF
          R33-9 Monte HarrisonOF
          R33-8 Niko GoodrumSS
          R33-7 Chance SiscoC
          R33-6 Codi HeuerP
          R33-5 Julio RodriguezOF
          R33-4 Nomar MazaraOF(A)
          R33-3 Shin-Soo ChooOF
          R33-2 Kris BubicP
          R33-1 Trevor RogersP
          Round 32
          R32-15 Danny Santana1B
          R32-14 Jacob NottinghamC
          R32-13 Mike TauchmanOF
          R32-12 Gregory PolancoOF(A)
          R32-11 Jeter DownsSS
          R32-10 Vidal Brujan2B
          R32-9 Darwinzon HernandezP
          R32-8 Logan WebbP
          R32-7 Donovan Solano2B
          R32-6 Tucker BarnhartC
          R32-5 Jonathan HernandezP
          R32-4 Victor CaratiniC(A)
          R32-3 Felix PenaP(A)
          R32-2 Bryse WilsonP
          R32-1 Nico Hoerner2B
          Round 31
          R31-15 Kyle WrightP
          R31-14 Marwin Gonzalez3B
          R31-13 Josh Fuentes1B
          R31-12 Luis PatinoP(A)
          R31-11 Joc PedersonOF
          R31-10 Clarke SchmidtP
          R31-9 Asdrubal Cabrera3B
          R31-8 Evan MarshallP
          R31-7 Luke WeaverP
          R31-6 Anderson TejedaSS
          R31-5 Kurt SuzukiC(A)
          R31-4 Blake TreinenP(A)
          R31-3 Justin DunnP
          R31-2 Jason HeywardOF
          R31-1 Evan Longoria3B
          Round 30
          R30-15 Yusei KikuchiP
          R30-14 Austin GomberP
          R30-13 Antonio SenzatelaP
          R30-12 Travis Shaw3B
          R30-11 Rowan WickP
          R30-10 Luis TorrensC(A)
          R30-9 Ross StriplingP
          R30-8 Trevor MayP
          R30-7 Rougned Odor2B
          R30-6 Logan GilbertP
          R30-5 Austin BarnesC
          R30-4 Jacob StallingsC(A)
          R30-3 J.P. CrawfordSS(A)
          R30-2 Miles MikolasP(A)
          R30-1 Daulton JefferiesP

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Oddly enough I see more steals in these rounds than the last set of four rounds you posted…Solano, Wright, Patino, Schmidt, Odor, May, Wick, O’Neill, Yoenis, Domingo…For that price? Great value

            • Dave D says:
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              Yeah, its hard to choose the better value sometimes. Its like only having $10 at the 99c store. I didnt have a 2B until Wong in round 26. Then I got Odor and Solano. If I platoon Solanos AVG to compensate for Odor’s lack, I may a cheap Keston Hiura.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Oh, wow, I honestly, had no idea those were your picks, I just grabbed a few value picks I liked a lot… Odor and Solano that late is crazy…Especially Solano

  2. Yu Complete Me says:
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    Nice write up Grey!

    8 player 12 team keeper pool I just dealt Conforto for Grisham and a mid round pick. We have like 10 offensive cats. I’m being chirped pretty hard for this trade. To me I thought it was fair who do you prefer between the 2 going forward?

    Everywhere I look Grisham is ranked higher and in mock drafts is going higher than Conforto.

    Thanks,

    Brad

    • JKJ

      JKJ says:
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      methinks you hosed the dude. I’d rather have Grisham, and to get a pick on top of that? I don’t believe Conforto’s .322 BA this year. Grish is just a younger, faster Conforto with a better BB% IMO.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Sounds totally fair…Grisham and Conforto are about even and extra pick is better

  3. Lee says:
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    What’s your take on this? 30 team contract league

    Acuna for Julio Rodriguez and Trent Grisham

    or

    Acuna for Nimmo, Biggio, Veen

    • JKJ

      JKJ says:
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      I would move Acuna for JR and TG in a 30-teamer. League that deep, I think those two together help you more than Acuna alone does. Wouldn’t even sniff the other offer.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Acuña side in either, not very close

      • Lee says:
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        C Smith, Will
        1B Freeman, Freddie
        2B Moore, Dylan
        3B Muncy, Max
        SS Cronenworth, Jake
        CI Walsh, Jared
        MI La Stella, Tommy
        OF Happ, Ian
        OF Tucker, Kyle
        OF George Springer
        OF Acuna, Ronald
        BEN Gonzalez, Erik

        SP Plesac, Zach
        SP Sanchez, Sixto
        SP Wheeler, Zach
        SP Ian Anderson
        SP Lynn, Lance
        SP Darvish, Yu
        RP Hicks, Jordan
        RP Anderson, Nick
        RP Rosenthal, Trevor
        RP Hernandez, Jonathan
        RP Taylor, Blake

        This is my 26-Man team.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Why would you not want Acuña?

  4. Thinkin he’ll be up from the start and be an everyday guy with a nice place in the batting order. Downside is the supporting cast may drag him down. Projections look right for Charlie’s boy!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Right-o, Smitty!

  5. Mike L says:
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    I’m in a 12 team keep forever and have a log jam at 2nd with Hiura, Albies, and Madrigal. My average was one of my worst categories last year with strike out kings like Gallo, Sano, and the above mentioned Hiura. I’ve already traded Sano but I don’t think I can get much value with Gallo or Hiura right now because of their lousy seasons. If you were trading for a pitcher, what kind of value or overall player would you be trying to get back with either player?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hmm…Hiura is much more valuable, prolly a top 10 SP — Gallo prolly has no value, but maybe like a Pearson type flyer? Gore? They might not go for that tho

      • Mike L says:
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        If I can get either one of those for Gallo I’d be thrilled but the guy who owns Gore is a Padres fan…not happening. Thanks for the response I value him as a 45-65 overall pick so hopefully someone will make a deal.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Maybe someone like Deivi or Schmidt?

  6. Jack Straw says:
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    Thanks Grey – love the write-up. I drafted K. Hayes in my NL only 10 team roto league for $1 this past season and loved the production he provided after being called up. I am thinking of keeping him on my squad for $6 – seems like pretty small investment with the potential for nice upside – whether I play him at 3B or stick in at CI and get a more power oriented 3B. His top notch D should keep him in the lineup so $6 seems like a good investment with profit upside.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Sounds like a decent plan, $6 is pretty cheap for him

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