In 85 major league at-bats, Ke’Bryan Hayes hit five homers, stole a bag and hit .376. That roughly translates to 645 homers, and 129 steals while hitting .376 in an equally productive 20-year career. Hard to argue he’s not a 1st ballot Hall of Famer.

You, a wet-under-the-collar-with-scurvy Pirates fan, “He still wouldn’t be the best player to come out of Pittsburgh. Hello, Barry Bonds.”
Me, a world-weary-peg-leg-having Pirates fan, “Bonds wasn’t a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. The Man stopped that from happening.”

Hey, they’re The Man, I simply live in The Man’s World. “If everyone left a penny, but didn’t take a penny, the jar to hold the pennies would need to be the size of the Silverdome, and be renamed the Copper-Plated Zinc Pennydome.” Not now, Mr. Prorater. “Oh, so you can prorate out Ke’Bryan Hayes’s stats, but I can’t prorate out a very simply equation. Cool, cool.” Well, whether you want to believe me, Mr. Prorater or Ke’Bryan Hayes’s September debut–Actually, that last one did happen, but is it real and repeatable? That’s what we have to figure out. Is it sustainable like this salmon I’m eating out of my lap to avoid waste. Don’t worry, I’m wearing plastic pants. If you forgot, here are the four highest OPS for major league players’ debut months since 1901: Yasiel Puig (hey whatever happened to this guy?) with 1.180; Albert Pujols in 2001 with 1.171; Rhys Hoskins in 2017 with 1.149 and Ke’Bryan Hayes with 1.144. Not bad company, but not Bad Company by Bad Company. So, what can we expect from Ke’Bryan Hayes for 2021 fantasy baseball?

Even if Ke’Bryan Hayes got jacked like post-Pittsburgh Bonds, none of his numbers from his debut month look sustainable. Sorry, but why beat around the bush when you can jam right into it? Hmm, that doesn’t sound right. Quickly:  Ke’s Bryan’s BABIP of .450 was an eeney-meeny bit high. His Launch Angle of 7.4 if solid, if you want to hit only ground balls, but not exactly going to produce a ton of fly balls, let alone home runs. His 30.8% fly ball rate was low for even him, but not totally out of his usual MO. Just not the MO for big power producers. Not entirely out of the realm of possibility, mind you. Yelich made a career of hitting very few fly balls, and Altuve’s not too far behind him.

In Ke’Bryan Hayes’s big month of September, he had a 25% HR/FB and would need to continue that to come close to a 5-homer per month guy. His minor league numbers speak more to a 3-homer per month. Small quibble maybe, but over a six-month season, he’s more of a 18-homer guy vs. 30 homers. Thankfully, he doesn’t just homer. In fact, if you read that a year ago, you’d think he did everything but homer. While not an extreme blazer like Trea Turner or someone obscenely fast, Hayes isn’t a complete dud for speed either. He’s a 55-grade speed guy, which should translate to 10+ bags, maybe 20 if he feels like putting on a show. All things considered, if you were to take this back to what he actually was prior to his huge debut, he was a solid contact guy who wasn’t immune to a walk. Maybe not quite a .300 hitter with neutral luck, as his xBA was last year, but not far off. In a neutral environment, he’s prolly close to a .320 BABIP, 18% K% and 11% BB%, which should come out to around a .285 average with his Launch Angle and propensity for line drives. This might not sound like it, but I’m a big Ke’Bryan Hayes guy. A Ke’Brystan, if you will. But being unrealistic doesn’t help anyone. Also, this is assuming the Pirates don’t do something stupid and pretend he has to work on his defense in the minors for the month of April. For 2021, I’ll give Ke’Bryan Hayes projections 66/16/74/.289/13 in 509 ABs with a chance for more.

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Jack Straw
Jack Straw
2 years ago

Thanks Grey – love the write-up. I drafted K. Hayes in my NL only 10 team roto league for $1 this past season and loved the production he provided after being called up. I am thinking of keeping him on my squad for $6 – seems like pretty small investment with the potential for nice upside – whether I play him at 3B or stick in at CI and get a more power oriented 3B. His top notch D should keep him in the lineup so $6 seems like a good investment with profit upside.

Mike L
Mike L
2 years ago

I’m in a 12 team keep forever and have a log jam at 2nd with Hiura, Albies, and Madrigal. My average was one of my worst categories last year with strike out kings like Gallo, Sano, and the above mentioned Hiura. I’ve already traded Sano but I don’t think I can get much value with Gallo or Hiura right now because of their lousy seasons. If you were trading for a pitcher, what kind of value or overall player would you be trying to get back with either player?

Mike L
Mike L
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

If I can get either one of those for Gallo I’d be thrilled but the guy who owns Gore is a Padres fan…not happening. Thanks for the response I value him as a 45-65 overall pick so hopefully someone will make a deal.

2 years ago

Thinkin he’ll be up from the start and be an everyday guy with a nice place in the batting order. Downside is the supporting cast may drag him down. Projections look right for Charlie’s boy!

2 years ago

What’s your take on this? 30 team contract league

Acuna for Julio Rodriguez and Trent Grisham


Acuna for Nimmo, Biggio, Veen

Reply to  Lee
2 years ago

I would move Acuna for JR and TG in a 30-teamer. League that deep, I think those two together help you more than Acuna alone does. Wouldn’t even sniff the other offer.

Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

C Smith, Will
1B Freeman, Freddie
2B Moore, Dylan
3B Muncy, Max
SS Cronenworth, Jake
CI Walsh, Jared
MI La Stella, Tommy
OF Happ, Ian
OF Tucker, Kyle
OF George Springer
OF Acuna, Ronald
BEN Gonzalez, Erik

SP Plesac, Zach
SP Sanchez, Sixto
SP Wheeler, Zach
SP Ian Anderson
SP Lynn, Lance
SP Darvish, Yu
RP Hicks, Jordan
RP Anderson, Nick
RP Rosenthal, Trevor
RP Hernandez, Jonathan
RP Taylor, Blake

This is my 26-Man team.

Yu Complete Me
Yu Complete Me
2 years ago

Nice write up Grey!

8 player 12 team keeper pool I just dealt Conforto for Grisham and a mid round pick. We have like 10 offensive cats. I’m being chirped pretty hard for this trade. To me I thought it was fair who do you prefer between the 2 going forward?

Everywhere I look Grisham is ranked higher and in mock drafts is going higher than Conforto.



Reply to  Yu Complete Me
2 years ago

methinks you hosed the dude. I’d rather have Grisham, and to get a pick on top of that? I don’t believe Conforto’s .322 BA this year. Grish is just a younger, faster Conforto with a better BB% IMO.

Dave D
Dave D
2 years ago

Son of Charlie Hayes, no less. Nice write-up! He went 159 in my currently draftiing DC. I guess that’s about right if your projections are on the mark. Damn I love early drafting. I’m having a blast. I should be in mid-season form by the time the “early” Razz DCs go. Any chance you do a 2-hour instead of 4-hour? It might keep it from bogging down at times. Two hours seems plenty to me. My 30-minute DC has been completely awesome. I cant imagine going back to 4-hour.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Its pretty easy now to not screw up with a draft queue that can be set uniquely for each round of the draft. Nobody has needed more time nor complained about the 30-min DC. I’d be really surprised if we were to do the two-hour That anyone would regret it.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Well, maybe that’d be a good thing for us on the ball folks… from a Darwinian perspective… hehe.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Not sure where I left off but here’s 25-29:

Round 29
R29-15 Carter Kieboom3B
R29-14 Adley RutschmanC(A)
R29-13 Cristian PacheUT(A)
R29-12 Brandon Belt1B
R29-11 Pete FairbanksP(A)
R29-10 Jose GarciaSS
R29-9 Stephen PiscottyOF(A)
R29-8 Daniel NorrisP(A)
R29-7 Rio Ruiz3B(A)
R29-6 Edward CabreraP(A)
R29-5 J.A. HappP(A)
R29-4 Wilson RamosC(A)
R29-3 Jose IglesiasSS
R29-2 Alex DickersonOF
R29-1 Kevin KiermaierOF(A)
Round 28
R28-15 Jazz ChisholmSS(A)
R28-14 Dean KremerP
R28-13 Miguel CabreraUT
R28-12 Zack BrittonP(A)
R28-11 Edward OlivaresOF(A)
R28-10 Luis Garcia2B
R28-9 Roberto PerezC(A)
R28-8 Colin Moran1B(A)
R28-7 Justin UptonOF(A)
R28-6 Lucas SimsP
R28-5 Hanser Alberto2B(A)
R28-4 Garrett RichardsP
R28-3 David PetersonP(A)
R28-2 Miguel AndujarOF
R28-1 Carlos MartinezP
Round 27
R27-15 Myles StrawOF
R27-14 Mike Brosseau3B
R27-13 Sam HilliardOF(A)
R27-12 Cal QuantrillP
R27-11 Spencer Torkelson3B(A)
R27-10 Josh StaumontP
R27-9 Hunter HarveyP(A)
R27-8 Jackie Bradley Jr.OF
R27-7 JaCoby JonesOF(A)
R27-6 Yimi GarciaP
R27-5 Nick PivettaP
R27-4 Luis UriasSS(A)
R27-3 Martin MaldonadoC
R27-2 Omar NarvaezC
R27-1 Mike MinorP
Round 26
R26-15 Nick AhmedSS
R26-14 Alec MillsP
R26-13 Robbie GrossmanOF
R26-12 Avisail GarciaOF
R26-11 Adrian MorejonP
R26-10 Alex ReyesP
R26-9 Emmanuel ClaseP
R26-8 Scott BarlowP
R26-7 Kolten Wong2B
R26-6 Noah SyndergaardDP
R26-5 Brusdar GraterolP
R26-4 Madison BumgarnerP(A)
R26-3 Shogo AkiyamaOF(A)
R26-2 Roman QuinnOF
R26-1 Josh NaylorOF
Round 25
R25-15 Mauricio DubonOF
R25-14 Adam WainwrightP
R25-13 Corey DickersonOF(A)
R25-12 Cesar Hernandez2B(A)
R25-11 Carlos Santana1B
R25-10 Daniel Ponce de LeonP
R25-9 Justus SheffieldP
R25-8 Luis Arraez2B
R25-7 Jonathan Schoop2B
R25-6 Brendan Rodgers2B
R25-5 Craig KimbrelP(A)
R25-4 Max StassiC
R25-3 Miguel RojasSS
R25-2 Bryan GarciaP
R25-1 Yandy Diaz3B

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah. Basically I punted 2B but will be fine, but I was super happy with him and Sheff. Great opportunities this early. Its kinda cool to have significant impact on early ADPs too.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

He was taken #288. Possibly a great value.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

This is my OF after 38 rounds:

Bryce Harper
Luis Robert
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Victor Robles
David Peralta

Ryan Mountcastle

Justin Upton (OF)
Stephen Piscotty (OF)

Monte Harrison (OF)
Jake Fraley (OF)
Hunter Renfroe (OF)

Aristides Aquino (OF

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Dave D
2 years ago

Thanks, man. Yeah, hopefully I just need Monte to swipe the occasional bag. Top 6 Im real happy about.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Dave D
2 years ago

History Draft
Round 34
R34-15 Chris MartinP
R34-14 Michael LorenzenP
R34-13 Steven BraultP
R34-12 Rich HillP(A)
R34-11 Tyler O`NeillOF
R34-10 Demarcus EvansP
R34-9 Alex WoodP
R34-8 Taylor TrammellUT(A)
R34-7 A.J. PukP
R34-6 Jarren DuranUT
R34-5 Emilio PaganP
R34-4 Yoenis CespedesUT(A)
R34-3 Adrian HouserP(A)
R34-2 Domingo SantanaOF(A)
R34-1 Jose TrevinoC
Round 33
R33-15 Jose QuintanaP
R33-14 Khris DavisUT(A)
R33-13 Ryan HelsleyP(A)
R33-12 Tom HatchP(A)
R33-11 Orlando ArciaSS
R33-10 Harrison BaderOF
R33-9 Monte HarrisonOF
R33-8 Niko GoodrumSS
R33-7 Chance SiscoC
R33-6 Codi HeuerP
R33-5 Julio RodriguezOF
R33-4 Nomar MazaraOF(A)
R33-3 Shin-Soo ChooOF
R33-2 Kris BubicP
R33-1 Trevor RogersP
Round 32
R32-15 Danny Santana1B
R32-14 Jacob NottinghamC
R32-13 Mike TauchmanOF
R32-12 Gregory PolancoOF(A)
R32-11 Jeter DownsSS
R32-10 Vidal Brujan2B
R32-9 Darwinzon HernandezP
R32-8 Logan WebbP
R32-7 Donovan Solano2B
R32-6 Tucker BarnhartC
R32-5 Jonathan HernandezP
R32-4 Victor CaratiniC(A)
R32-3 Felix PenaP(A)
R32-2 Bryse WilsonP
R32-1 Nico Hoerner2B
Round 31
R31-15 Kyle WrightP
R31-14 Marwin Gonzalez3B
R31-13 Josh Fuentes1B
R31-12 Luis PatinoP(A)
R31-11 Joc PedersonOF
R31-10 Clarke SchmidtP
R31-9 Asdrubal Cabrera3B
R31-8 Evan MarshallP
R31-7 Luke WeaverP
R31-6 Anderson TejedaSS
R31-5 Kurt SuzukiC(A)
R31-4 Blake TreinenP(A)
R31-3 Justin DunnP
R31-2 Jason HeywardOF
R31-1 Evan Longoria3B
Round 30
R30-15 Yusei KikuchiP
R30-14 Austin GomberP
R30-13 Antonio SenzatelaP
R30-12 Travis Shaw3B
R30-11 Rowan WickP
R30-10 Luis TorrensC(A)
R30-9 Ross StriplingP
R30-8 Trevor MayP
R30-7 Rougned Odor2B
R30-6 Logan GilbertP
R30-5 Austin BarnesC
R30-4 Jacob StallingsC(A)
R30-3 J.P. CrawfordSS(A)
R30-2 Miles MikolasP(A)
R30-1 Daulton JefferiesP

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah, its hard to choose the better value sometimes. Its like only having $10 at the 99c store. I didnt have a 2B until Wong in round 26. Then I got Odor and Solano. If I platoon Solanos AVG to compensate for Odor’s lack, I may a cheap Keston Hiura.