So I was talking with the boss man and found out there wasn’t going to be no buy/sell today. Of course, since there are all of 3 days left in the season, and possibly some of you are already done or knocked out (condolences). Though, take heed, I am here for you all that are playing for the championships and top 3 finishes. Fight on to victory! This is a shoutout for one final Buy of the season. And dare I say, a sneak peek sleeper pick for 2021 and possibly a dynasty hold to boot. That pick, my friends, is Justus Sheffield. So why is he a good buy for these final days and beyond?
Sheffield is top 5 in the league in lowest Barrel/BBE% among starting pitchers. Barrells is a term you hear us throw around here a lot. And I’m realizing that there might be some of you with no idea what I’m talking about. Via statcast a “barrel” is:
A classification assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015.
To put it more plainly, when a hit ball has the ideal contact and swing stroke that produces the best results for hard contact. So obviously, it’s good when a pitcher can avoid those as much as possible. The Top 5 for lowest of such per swing contact or batted-ball event (BBE) in this crazy year are Zack Wheeler, Max Fried, Justus Sheffield, Yusei Kikuchi, and Huyn-Jin Ryu. Avoiding hard contact (or contact at all) like a crowded bar in COVID season is the pitcher’s primary goal (duh), and when a pitcher can take a step forward in that area it usually leads to good things. 3 of those names have been very good pitchers this season, each with an ERA at or below 3.00, and Kikuchi’s FIP has been below 4 all season long, yet has had very bad luck.
Then there’s Sheffield who currently sits at a 3.75 ERA with a 3.08 FIP. Which is a bit deceptive since he started a bit rough but rounded into form as the season got underway. After the first 2 tuneup starts, Sheffield was actually very good.
| ERA | WHIP | FIP | K% | BB% | IP/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 2 | 9.39 | 1.83 | 3.71 | 19.4% | 16.7% | 3.8 |
| After | 2.74 | 1.20 | 2.97 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 6.1 |
After he got stretched out he was very good. Most importantly, the key to his success was that cut down his walk-rate. His walk-rate has been his kryptonite. Last year he had a walkrate over 10% as well as both 9.9% and 15.6% in 2 seasons of AAA. His command had always been a work in progress. Though this season it looks like he’s finally making headway. Of those last 7 starts he issued 2 walks or fewer in 5 of them going at least 6 IP. That’ll play. The other positive is he’s only allowed 2 HRs in 9 starts – no doubt a benefit of the low barrel-rate.
So, other than walks, what is he doing differently?
| Fastball | Sinker | Slider | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 47.8% (-2.1) | – – | 35.6% (-3.6) | 16.7% (0.9) |
| 2020 | 0.9% (0) | 46.3% (0.7) | 34.1% (4.5) | 18.7% (2.5) |
Homeboy got himself a new pitch! This year Justus all but abandoned his fastball in favor of a sinker. Along with some improved command, he now has all his pitches with positive value. Last year his fastball was atrocious; batters sat on it due to his command and hit him hard, giving it a -2.1 runs *below* average. A negative fastball is never a good thing.
Fastfoward to this season, he rarely throws the fourseamer and replaced it a sinker which has been a positive. Not only that, but due to his improved command and pitching in the zone at a higher rate his slider and change values have skyrocketed, especially the slider. Mixing speed and movement has helped his slider play up whereas before he had an extremely flat fastball that wasn’t working for him. Look at how nasty this slider is. The sinker has essentially made the breaking balls more tempting, thus getting swings on pitches like this.
Justus Sheffield, Wicked 83mph Slider. ?
Piscotty proposes. ? pic.twitter.com/kiIDwLnhX8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 4, 2020
Is he sub-3.00 ERA pitcher now? Ehhhhh, let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet. Some the other metrics point to him not being nearly as dominate as you would hope. A heavily reduced HR/FB rate this season, xBA and EV etc say he’s not quite there yet. But the improvement in Barrel/BBE% is great, and the better command is always great. He’s getting better and all you really need to do is keep them offbalance, and right now that’s exactly what he’s doing. Did Piscotty look comfortable there? I think not. I think he’s well on his way to being a 3.50 ERA pitcher next year with a near 9 K/9 and 3 BB/9, which is always a recipe for success.
For his final start of the year, he faces the Athletics at home (OAK is .500 on the road this season). There is a good chance they will not be starting all their regulars as they have the AL West locked up and Matt Chapman is already out of the season. The Streamonator is not a big fan of this start, but I’m in on it especially after holding the Padres to 1 run last week at home. And that’s just between the two of us.
