I think this is going to be my last rookie outlook post.  If someone pops up sometime in the preseason, maybe I’ll return, but I need to move onto sleepers, and Winter Meetings updates.  Here’s what I said when Jose De Leon first came up, “There’s gonna be a lot of haters out there about Jose De Leon.  It’s the times we live in.  His great-great-great-great grandfather was the original body-shamer.  Ponce De Leon set out about five hundred and fifty years ago looking for the Fountain of Youth because, his words, “My old bitty needs to go bye-bye if she continues to sag in the FUPA area.”  He was also the originator of the common 1500s phrase, “Ponce upon a time you looked good, girl.”  A phrase that has rightfully disappeared from common speech before any more women were hurt by vernacular manslaughter, so to speak.  As for Jose De Leon, he’s got the youth thing for days, but he’s not quite as young as Julio Urias, which I’m gonna say is a good thing in this case, because Urias is so raw he may as well be carrying botulism.  De Leon, 23 years old, is destroying Triple-A on the current — 13.8 K/9, 3.06 ERA — which is more or less same-same what he’s been doing for the last two years.  Even more importantly, the Dodgers have an immediate need with their rotation a M.A.S.H. unit, a Jamie-Farr-kin joke.”  And that’s me quoting me!  De Leon ended up with a 11.6 K/9 and a 2.61 in 86 1/3 IP in Triple-A.  There’s nowhere else for De Leon to go but the majors in 2017, so let’s segue this sucka.  Anyway, what can we expect from Jose De Leon for 2017 fantasy baseball?

First off, De Leon will either be in the rotation from the jump in April or he will be the first one up after an injury, either way, he should get 140 IP in the majors.  He can’t safely throw many more than that anyway, so if he gets cut from the team at the end of March or comes up in May it’s all relatively the same.  Trades and injuries can happen on the reg, but right now De Leon is better than at least two of the Dodgers starters (McCarthy and Kazmir).  Him or Urias could be a toss up for 2017, but Urias’ stuff is better.  Urias can be a number one, De Leon looks like a number two.  A number two in LA is usually an air turd and smells like kale chips.  A number two as far as baseball is concerned in LA is still a potential top 30 starter for all of fantasy.  Hello, vs. the Padres.  Hey, what’s up, Rockies on the road?  Yo, what’s up actually every team on the road in the NL West?  Rockies, Padres, Arizona were all in the bottom third for road offense, and the Giants missed that cutoff by two (i.e., they were 18th in the majors for road offense).  The park is good, the Dodgers are one of the better offensive teams, yadda3. De Leon is in a good place to succeed.  In Triple-A, De Leon had the best K-BB%.  Better than Jameson Taillon, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Alex Reyes, you name ’em.  If you can only have one stat for pitchers, K-BB% is about the best you can do to give you an idea of how good a pitcher will be.  You throw a lot of strikes and not a lot of balls?  That’s a great sign.  Of course, there’s guys like Tomlin who don’t walk anyone and don’t strike out many either, but that’s not De Leon.  When you throw strikes and strikeout guys, it takes a lot to allow runs.  His one big drawback, and the one big drawback that can happen to guys who throw strikes, is he gives up homers.  In 17 IP with the Dodgers last year, he gave up five homers.  Um, poo.  Yeah, that’s awful, but as previously stated on the aforementioned tip, Dodger Stadium can help a bit with homers.  For 2017, I’ll project De Leon for 9-4/3.57/1.18/128 in 135 IP, which is a decent backend flyer in all leagues.

  1. Packers says:
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    I need to waive one of these outfielders or one of these SP. Roster requirements.
    Cotton or Musgrove.
    Maybin, Kiermaier, Martin or Margot. I’m keeping Fowler, all the same type of stats.
    12 team, start 5 outfielders, dynasty keep forever. Mt other two outfielders are Cespedes and JD.
    My SP are deep, but using your advice I don’t keep many bats on our 6 man reserve squad.

    2. Joe Ross or Suarez? Assuming you think Healy is a better keep than Suarez. I have Seager and Lamb also at 3B. We start 2 at each position.

    3. I’m still trying to get Contreras for Salazar or K. Hendricks. I threw in one of the above outfielders or Suarez but he wants way more. I think it’s fair, no?

    4. Just for conversation but it seems if someone initiates a trade offer the other guy comes back with some ridiculous counter offer. This is after I say to myself why would my potential trade partner want this. I know it’s part of the fun to try and tweak the trade to each of our best interest but don’t be ridiculous.

    5. The Scout league did make the payouts by the way. Is Razzball going to sponsor another league like last year? I really liked the end of August end time.

    Thank you for a great site. My first read of the day.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Packers: 1. Maybin 2. Suarez 3. More than 4. Agreed 5. Good to hear! Yeah, we’ll host free leagues and a few paid leagues… Not sure if we’re doing Scout again, maybe NFBC

  2. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey,

    I hope you had a great Thanksgiving. I am interested in acquiring Josh Bell. He is asking for Glasnow for him. I offered either Snell or Madson for him. What are your thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Scott Kimmel: Thanks! You too! I’d send Madson or Snell

  3. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    The ASG winner will no longer decide home field advantage in the world series..The pennant winner with the best record gets it. WOO HOO

    • Scott Kimmel says:
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      hey mal. also not losing a 1st rd pick for signing a fa.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: Season starts 5 days earlier too, as to allow more off days.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Works for me!

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: More off days means more batty calls!!!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yes!

  4. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Looking forward to sleepers! [get back in the trunk, Brett Lawrie!]

    With the seemingly foregone conclusion of a Dread Pirate trade now, curious what your latest thoughts on Austin Meadows are . . .

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: Unless they move Bell into left, and bring back Freese and John Jaso-heimer. It’s possible.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          That scenario seems at least possible

  5. Richard D says:
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    can I get some help with planning for 2017 NL only roto with 10 keepers in deep roto league with $260 salary
    Marked inflation for top players (Kershaw and Goldie went for >$50 at auction in 2016)
    So…. Keep a $1 David Peralta over a $15 Dexter Fowler or $1 G Parra?
    Keep a $2 J Peraza over a $24 J Turner?
    Better to keep H Neris over A Ottavino for saves?
    F Freeman for $31 (He will go for more at Auction)
    Clear Keepers Blackmon $10, Realmuto $2 W Contreras $2, Oh $1, Gray $2 (for the name alone), Maeda $14,

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Richard D: I’d keep Peralta, Peraza, Neris and Freeman

      • Richard D says:
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        I always appreciate your help

  6. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey,

    Would you trade Duvall for Josh Bell?

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        Grey,

        A blockbuster offer just came to me.

        I give up Machado, Votto, SNell, Cueto, And Starling Marte
        I get: Miggy, Taillon, Braun, McCutchen and Thor.

        Thoughts?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Hold

          • Scott Kimmel says:
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            ok why?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Why what, Kimmel?

              • Scott Kimmel says:
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                why hold? what is it about the deal you dont like

                • Ante GALIC says:
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                  @Scott Kimmel: Scott

                  Just my 0.02$! The three guys you are giving up – Manny, Votto and Starling are way better than any combination of the best on the other side. Remember that Manny could continue with the HRs AND return with like 20 SBs this year. Votto has proven that he is his 2009 self again. That’s scary. Lastly, Starling should be as good or better and if he stays healthy could be a top 10 OF. So, yeah. HOLD!

                  Cheers,
                  Ante

                  • Scott Kimmel says:
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                    Ante GALIC

                    He changed the deal. The deal he wants to do now is this.

                    I give up: Votto, Cueto, Glasnow, Marte and Snell
                    I get: Thor, Miggy, Taillon, Braun, and McCutchen

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      That doesn’t look bad

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Ante GALIC: top 10 how?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Agree with Ante

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Grey: Braun is better than Marte. Machado was the deal killer. The new deal seems good for him.

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      Big Odio should I take machado out of the deal? but he might take thor out

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      @Big Odio: bat over arm all day every day. Take machado out of the deal. trading the macho man in any dynasty is foolish

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      Big Odio i made a counter offer.

                      I give Cueto, SNell and Gurriel
                      I get: Thor, Taillon and CUtch

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      @Big Odio: I like that deal..wait which Guriel?

              • Scott Kimmel says:
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                Grey,would do that offer that you said doesn’t look that bad.

                I give up: Votto, Cueto, Glasnow, Marte and Snell
                I get: Thor, Miggy, Taillon, Braun, and McCutchen

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Works for me

                  • Scott Kimmel says:
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                    he said no to it says he is giving up too much with thor and miggy in deal to get cueto and snell in deal. He wants more

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I thought he offered it

                  • Scott Kimmel says:
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                    grey he gave me a list of what players along with votto, marte Glasnow and Snell to get MIgy, Thor, Taillon, braun and Cutch.

                    Here is the list: Posey, Altuve, Correa,,Donaldson Machado, Trout, Crawford, Bum, Scherzer,,deGrom, Diaz,

                    who if any should I offer

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      JP Crawford

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      Yes Grey JP Crawford

                  • Scott Kimmel says:
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                    he keeps coming back to “put Machado in the mix and its a done deal”.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Meh, tell him forget it

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      Grey I told him I cant move Machado

                • Big Odio says:
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                  @Scott Kimmel: I like that too

  7. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Don’t tell JB, but Meadows had me thinking a lot about a better version of Keon Broxton (AVG liability aside). What sort of line are you expecting from Keon assuming full playing time? He certainly has a nice HR/SB fantasy skillset + Fangraphs is obsessed with him (they called him something like Khris Davis with SBs and a bit less power)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I saw that article too, don’t fully buy it… Davis is a 40-homer guy, Broxton is a 20-home guy… Broxton might also hit .215

  8. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!

    Great work! I love it.

    a. Nice Juan Ponce De Leon reference.

    b. Also love how you segued from yesterday’s GIF to today’s article. Look who Renfroe belted that 470-HR off of? 93-MPH meat ball down and in that Renfroe reached for and demolished down the line in left!

    c. So, the question begs! Who will be in tomorrow’s column?

    1. The guy who caught the meat ball? Prolly not, not a rookie
    2. The fan in the stands who caught the HR with his 0.5 gallon beer cup? Nope!
    3. None of the above?
    4. All of the above?
    5. You have to make some kind of connection between De Leon and Renfroe for your next column.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      A. Thanks! B. Hahaha, yup! C. Yes, #1!

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @Grey: Grey!

        As you’re the resident anagram specialist, try to make up some prospects name with the letters Jose De Leon + Hunter Renfroe!!! If you are able to pull that one off, it’ll be better than the time that David Copperfield made the Statue of Liberty disappear, ‘member?

        ….https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=823GNH4Rczg….

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You watch The Americans? You should, and they had an episode about Copperfield doing that…

          Anagram: Turn, Ho, Reefer — for Hunter Renfroe… De Leon returns Noel, Ed

          • Ante GALIC says:
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            @Grey: Grey!

            You win! Nice anagrams! Very speedy! Too bad there’s no vegas showroom where you can utilize that skillset! You’d be a winner every time out!

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Scrap!

  9. Big Odio says:
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    My gut says de leon starts year in minors and brock stewart gets first crack. We also need to wait out the winter meetings and who they sign because we know they are signing or trading for a SP. Personally de leon is traded as teams who want urias will have to settle on de leon.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, could be, but there’s at least a 75% chance if he’s traded then he’ll be in the majors with the same timeframe

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Grey: well yeah but we need to view him as a dodger and their shituation until something changes

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          He’s not going to the minors all year no matter the team, and he can’t throw 200 IP no matter the team, so only so much can change

          • Big Odio says:
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            @Grey: I guess if that makes sense to you. It all depends on organization, the Cardinals usually leave them down til they are well seasoned. Just depends on where if there is a where

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, like Alex Reyes, Carlos Martinez, Wacha, Marco Gonzalez and Luke Weaver

              • Big Odio says:
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                @Grey: what point were you making with that list. The Cardinals didn’t rush any of those guys

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  We’re any of them older than De Leon when they came up?

                  • Ralph Lifshitz

                    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                    @Grey: None of them were late round picks like De Leon, and none of them had awful bodies. De Leon looked like Billy Butler’s Mexican Winter League love child in 2013. So there was some conditioning work that needed to be done.

                    All those guys you mentioned were first round picks or $1Million signing bonus guys. De Leon had a less direct path.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      But at this point De Leon career trajectory doesn’t say to me his next stop is the minors for more seasoning

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Grey: what does age have to do with being ready for the majors?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      No one I listed was more seasoned than De Leon now when they came up

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      seasoned is pretty objective, Im not in that farm system and all we have are numbers to look at. So to say one is more than the others feels foolish. He may start with the big club he may not. He has moved pretty fast through the ranks but I wouldnt bet on anything right now.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Subjective, you used seasoned, not me

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      You wrote seasoned twice

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Big Odio: Aren’t the Dodgers hamstrung by their debt issue? Aren’t they more likely to sell some contracts, which could force up some minor league talent?

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: maybe, I know last year was an exception with all the injuries. They also are paying lots of players who are wearing someone else’s jersey right now. I think once the undoing of the McCourts debacle is complete they can get back to not being in debt. Its quite an odd position they are in.

  10. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey,

    I came up with 3 different offers to acquire Thor, Miggy, McCutchen, Taillon and Braun. Which offer(s) if any do you like:

    1) Maeda, Votto, Marte, Glasnow, and Gurriel
    2) Maeda, Votto, Marte, Glasnow and Cain
    3) Maeda, Votto, Marte, Glasnow and J.P. Crawford

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Any of them

  11. Scott Kimmel says:
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    ok claims he has a blockbuster offer involving Seager from the Dodgers

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