January ADP Risers And Fallers Rounds 11-15: Chandler Simpson Running On Empty And More

It’s Week 3 of our tour through the ADP Riser and Faller landscape. This time, I will look at guys now getting drafted in the 11th through 15th rounds in NFBC 15 team drafts. By “now” I refer to the last 14 drafts, and that includes slow drafts that have not finished, hat tip again to Ryan Bloomfield of the “Bubba and the Bloom” podcast and Discord. The original ADP is from drafts held in October through December of last year.

And again, I just want to highlight interesting movers. Robert Suarez dropped a lot and into this current range, but it’s not really that interesting (well, unless you’re related to him, I guess). He was a free agent expected to sign where he would close, instead, he went to the Braves, where he will not close, at least at first. 

Risers

Griffin Jax 235.89 to 168.5

Closer gyrations are a common theme in these ADP Movers columns, and it’s clear that accounts for the big pop in Griffin Jax shares. But does this make any sense? Pete Fairbanks has taken his talents to South Beach…or more accurately, the lifeless dome in Miami that the Marlins call home. But last we heard, the Rays plan to at least start with a closer committee. Yes, that includes Jax, as well as Garrett Cleavinger and Edwin Uceta. Teams often say they will mix and match and whatnot, and then a guy shines, and he gets the job. The Rays have gone the committee route before, but they’ve also had set closers like Fairbanks recently and Emilio Pagan before that. So, of course, there’s a chance Jax gets the gig to himself. But it’s not close to a lock. In all fairness, he goes behind all the “set” closers. But still, it’s a high price for a guy with this much uncertainty around his role. I’d love to draft him; he’s an excellent pitcher. But good set-up guys with occasional saves go much lower than this.

MacKenzie Gore 205.71 to 180.6

Gore recently escaped the perpetually rebuilding Nats for the contender-ish Rangers. And perhaps more importantly, it’s a huge ballpark upgrade if we can believe last year’s numbers. Nationals Park in DC had a 102 Park Factor for runs as per Statcast, vs. 83 for Globe Life Field in Arlington. More chance of wins and fewer runs?  That plays.

Gore himself remains a tantalizingly frustrating talent. He’s pretty durable, with 30+ starts the last two years. And he had a 27.2% K% and 29.7% Whiff% last year, both 80th percentile marks. But he remains a ratio nightmare. His 37% Ball% is subpar, as is his 9.7% career BB%. Add that to the loud contact he allows, and he has a 1.40 career WHIP and 4.19 ERA. Perhaps getting out of the DC summer heat will help, as he’s tended to wilt later in seasons. He has a 1.20 WHIP in 1st halves of seasons vs. 1.70 in 2nd halves. I kind of like him as a cheap shot, but so does the market now apparently, and not sure I’m playing at the new price.

Konnor Griffin 227.17 to 199.6

I am not at all a “Prospect Guy”; I rely on the many great ones out there to tell me who I should pay attention to. And they all rave about Griffin as he’s not only the top prospect this year, but he gets grades comparable to the  Bobby Witt Jr.’s and Mike Trout’s of the world. Steamer600, which projects how everyone would do in 600 PAs, has Griffin hitting .259 with 15 homers and 25 steals. That doesn’t blow the doors off, but these models always regress to the extreme, so that’s  REALLY good for a rookie. He hit .33 with 21 homers and 65(!) steals across three levels last year.

The big question and risk is whether he gets that many PA’s, or anywhere close to it. He has yet to play AAA, and the Pirates are cheaper than cheap. Even though they look a bit better this year, there’s a serious chance they avoid starting Griffin’s clock unless they can sign him to a long-term deal. I paid up for 1 share so far, but not sure I’ll get any more.

Bryson Stott 197.33 to 180.5

Nothing has really changed with Stott. He still will hit late in an excellent Phillies lineup and sit vs. some lefties. He’s likely to Avg. in the .250’s with 10-15 homers and 25-30 steals. I think he’s lifting a bit just because he projects pretty similarly to guys like Luke Keaschall, Jackson Holliday, and Ceddanne Rafaela, who all go 30-50 picks higher. I would still draft Stott here. I like 2B’s in this range and a bit lower, and I have yet to draft one at this point.

Fallers

Shane Bieber 147.87 to 194.6

Carlos Rodon 173.59 to 207.7

These are completely about health. Bieber opted in to 1 year at $12 million with the Jays, which seemed odd at the time since he would likely have gotten way more as a free agent. But then we found out he dealt with forearm tightness at the end of the season. Rodon had offseason surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow and is expected to miss the first month or so. Everyone’s mileage varies on drafting injury risk guys. 

I personally am ok with some risk, but I’d really only want one SP where we already have major concerns. Rodon would go 100-120 picks higher, something like that. I would take a shot here as he comes in off an excellent 3.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP season with 18 wins and 203 K’s in 195 IP. Bieber returned from TJ last year, and it was a bit mixed with a 3.52 SIERA but just a 4.49 xERA. His 4.4% BB% was excellent, but the 23.3% K%, not so much. I’d take a cheap shot, I guess, not running out to get him.

Chandler Simpson 153.74 to 174.3

Hard pass! 

Simpson could steal 100 bases if he played a full season while hitting .290. But he’s not close to a lock to getting a full run. He will likely platoon at best and spend half the year or more in AAA at worst. Simpson is just not a great actual player. His statcast page really tells the story.

He hits with 1st percentile EV, takes few walks, and his glove ranks in the 15th percentile despite 97th percentile sprint speed. Let’s say he improves that glove a bit and gets fuller run? Well, he still poses roster build issues for our purposes. You need to make up the power drain so you will otherwise underdraft speed and perhaps Avg to offset Simpson’s extreme profile. But then what happens if Simpson loses PT? You now have a serious speed deficit. I would just straight avoid unless he got to a price where you are not counting on him as a full-time starter.

Isaac Paredes 203.2 to 220.7

Addison Barger 192.7 to 208.9

These are both good hitters getting dinged with playing time concerns. 

Paredes has health issues, as he missed 2 months with a hamstring injury. He did return briefly last September, and the Astros crack medical staff says he’s a full go for spring training. Given their recent history, that could mean Paredes had his hamstring surgically removed. But let’s give them the benefit of the doubt on that. Houston’s roster crunch remains real as they have one too many quality hitters right now to rotate between 3B, 1B, 2B, LF, and DH. I combine a bunch of projection systems, and they have him targeted for just 425 ABs. That could, of course, change via a trade. A swap of Paredes to Boston for an OF sure fits both rosters, but it’s tough to find an actual match since there’s no way the Sox are trading either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu for him straight up. Also, an Astro injury would give Paredes full time run, and Yordan Alvarez and Carlos Correa are never pictures of health. For now, though, they say they’ll give Paredes reps at 2B to help get him on the field, but he’s as bad a fielder there as Jose Altuve. 

Barger, for now, looks like a platoon bat in a deep Blue Jays lineup. New signing Kazuma Okamoto will likely get most of the starts at 3B, which bumps Barger to the OF. Barger fields the corners competently, and he showed some nice pop last year, as evidenced by his Statcast page.

Unfortunately, the downside is that he had pretty wide splits as he had just an un-nice 69 wRC+ and 30.2% K% vs. lefties vs, 115 and 22.8% K% vs. righties. Barger looks fairly priced here as the OF’s in that range are other platoon bats and just generally good hitters with question marks.