Hot And Not, Summer Outfield Edition

I hope everybody had a great July 4th weekend! Let’s play a little game of Who’s Hot and Who’s Not, MLB outfielder edition. Without a super strict criteria, I want to highlight 5 “dudes” with big wRC+ jumps in June and 4 guys with big drops. So I guess yes, a hot or cold June is the basic criteria here, and it has to be someone out of line with the first two months of the season. Stats run through Saturday

Scorching June wRC+ Heat

Juan Soto 120 wRC+ through May 31st,  227 wRC+ after

Jo Adell 88 to 184

Riley Greene 129 to 175

Tyler Freeman 41 to 172

Cam Smith 111 to 151

The Juan  Soto “slump” and the narrative about him early in the season was always kind of overblown. The meh version of the superstar had a .770 OPS through the end of May, with 9 homers, 7 steals, 36 runs, and 27 RBI. So yes, underwhelming for his high draft cost, but not a Yordan Alvarez level disaster by any stretch.

But then came June, and a .337 average, 12 homers, 28 runs, and 23 RBI’s. He only stole 3 bases, but it’s tough to run when you’re slugging .721. And it wasn’t just his “luck” turning as his EV popped from 93.6 to 96.4 and he bumped his LA from 7.3 to 15.0. Those wormburner DP’s turned into towering bombs.

He’s likely to settle somewhere in the middle. His legendary OBP skills will almost certainly continue. But his early season EV and LA are closer to his career norms. Something like a 35 homer, 20 steal season with a 90+ RBI’s and 120 runs remains in the cards, and that’s just monstrous production.

Jo Adell and Riley Greene, we just noted last week as terrific auction buys. Greene is also near the top of the IHeart Radio Country charts, but it’s arguably a different guy with the same name. Still, great summer for all famous Riley Greenes.

Tyler Freeman leads off just about every day for the Rockies. Dare I say this, but it appears that Colorado has won a real-life trade for the first time in 30 years?….ever? OK, they must have won one at some point since the 90’s. And not like this one will move the needle, but getting Freeman for Nolan Jones looks like one of those valuable small moves that teams like the Rays and Brewers regularly pull off. The versatile Freeman has played mostly OF in Colorado and slashed .338/.422/.456 with 12 steals in 161 PA’s. He has very little pop, with just 1 homer and 4 barrels, though his 90.4 EV marks a career high. But that can play when you have a 9.9% BB% combined with an elite 8.1% K%, and 9.7% Whiff%. It’s Luis Arraez with speed right now in a home park conducive to hitters like this. Buy him anywhere you need that stat package; he’s maybe still out there in shallow formats.

Cam Smith has gone from an understandably overmatched rookie to a key part of the Astros lineup in a heartbeat. Through the end of May, he was still batting towards the bottom of the lineup and hitting .260 with 3 homers and 2 steals. That’s very limited Fantasy value, but in real life, he had that 111 wRC+ and good defense at a position he had never played before. Then came June and more Astros injuries, and suddenly bats near the top of the order and produces. In 30 games since June 1st, he’s slashed .333/.372/.518 with 4 homers, 19 runs, and 22 RBI’s. His 74.7 MPH Bat Speed is 87th percentile, which for such a raw player kind of hints that if he can make a bit better contact, he’ll really start tapping into his power. His K’s have trended down, but he still has a 25.3% K% since June 1st, and on the season, he has just a 10th percentile Squared Up%. You can absolutely live with those numbers if/when the pop increases.

Debbie wRC+ Downers since June 1st

Teoscar Hernandez 142 to 57

Miguel Vargas 110 to 70

Ryan O’Hearn 173 to 72

Mookie Betts 110 to 83

Teoscar Hernandez comes up often in these pages as I have him on a couple key teams. No one in MLB can possibly bat in a better lineup spot, yet he continues to do very little with it. Since June 1st, Teoscar has 4 homers, 12 runs, and 12 RBI’s, which does not suggest complete disaster. But he’s slashing a hideous .193/.239/.330 over that stretch. Maybe it’s just a fluky slump as his 91.5 EV and 25% K% since then is normal to good for him. There remains literally nothing to do here, I would not bench or sell low.

Miguel Vargas’ season is best contextualized in his wOBA graph from Fangraphs

After a sluggish start, it looked like the one-time big Dodgers prospect had figured it out, then boom, hello cliff. He has just a .270 wOBA and 2 homers since June 1st. His 3 steals and 16 runs are playable in a month, but that’s it. Vargas always profiled as a plate skills guy who could develop power as he matured. The plate skills remain good, as even in his decline, he has just a 17% K%. He just does that with very mediocre power metrics, and he’s a minus glove at all the corners. The White Sox will almost certainly keep rolling Vargas out there, because why not? But it looks like the definition of meh right now, as he has a .193 career BA, it’s in 942 PA’s, so it’s a real sample.

Ryan O’Hearn started off hot for the 2nd season in a row. Thanks to some Orioles injuries and his early play, he shed his platoon role and got pretty much every day run. He just didn’t do much with it. Since June 1st, he’s hit just .205, with 2 homers, 11 runs, and 9 RBI’s. He’s an almost complete avoid for me in all but the deepest formats. Even at his best, he’s not a big power bat. He’s an 8.5% career barrel% guy who’s a modest batting average plus. But it’s in a kind of meh lineup. He will almost certainly get traded at the deadline since he’s a pending free agent. While he may move to a better team, he will likely go back to platooning. Pass.

Mookie Betts homered last night (Saturday), but still has slashed just 241/.294/.379 in June and July. Freddie Freeman, for his part, has not been fantastic lately either, so maybe I overrated Teoscar’s context. Or not. Mookie’s not actually bad, of course, but his diminishing power is a bit worrisome going forward.

He’s really starting to profile as a contact guy now, as his Barrel% is just 6% over the last 1.5 seasons. He should still get on base and score a ton of runs, but it comes with 10-15 steals over a season. But that makes him a 2.5 category asset or so going forward, not really what you pay for at his draft cost.