I always try to look at things with a glass half-full. Unfortunately, that glass has a large hole in it right now where the MLB owners have drained my confidence in their love of the game. However, the savvy fantasy baseball manager is always looking for an edge. This week our hitter profiles focus on impacts from the lockout and what it should mean for our expectations. Whether it is recovery from injury or time away due to suspension and off the field struggles, there is always an angle to investigate. Today we try to turn a Manfred into a Lemon and hope we end up with Lemonade. Here are three hitters that stand to see a change in value the longer the lockout progresses.
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Ronald Acuna
Acura’s ADP has hovered around the end of the first round (pick 10) in early drafts. There is no question in my mind that Acuna is the #1 pick if there are no questions about his health. We do not have solid information about his return, but he was taking on field batting practice in early January which is a big step forward. With ACL injuries, we are usually looking at about a 9-month recovery window, but with all of the positive news we have seen this spring, I would already be leaning towards him making the opening day roster.
With that said, I would put brakes on drafting him at #1 overall even if we were guaranteed he was going to be ready for opening day. While Acuna was a 40-40 player before injury and his potential may have been higher, I believe there is still a level of caution that should be exercised until we know how much he is running. Either way, any additional time will give Acuna more rest and recovery which will only help his results. After the first four players off the board (Turner, Tatis, Ramirez and Soto), I would start considering Acuna and personally would take him today at pick 6 right after Bo Bichette comes off the board.
Roman Laureano
In early August of last year Laureano was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for the performance enhancing drug nandrolone. This cost him nearly two months in 2021, but also will rob him of the first month or so of the 2022 season as he still has 27 games remaining on his suspension. Unlike players with an injury gaining more time, Ramon himself had core surgery in the fall, with a longer lockout there will be a growing portion of the season lost for Laureano.
Since the beginning of the year, Ramon’s ADP has been right around 230. At this point in the draft, everybody has questions. Whether it is about the realizations of potential for Jo Adell or the promise of an upstart Lane Thomas, there will be risk. Laureano has the potential to bring a 25/15 season in a full year which is plenty desirable. However, if you are drafting today that value only goes down from here.
Max Muncy
An ugly elbow injury in the last game of the 2021 season cost Muncy the opportunity to carry the Dodgers in the postseason. A big disappointment for many after a solid season driving 36 long balls with 95 and 94 runs and RBI respectively. Elbow injuries are always scarier for pitchers, but are no joke for hitters a well. Any extra time will be a value for Max to get healthy. With an ADP around 150 the risk is being baked into the price. However, with recent news indicating Muncy is just now getting closer to picking up a bat I would proceed with caution. I would not be surprised if it took until May to see Muncy back on the field and maybe mid-summer until he is running at 2021 levels. Check the news a few more times before investing confidently in Max.
