As we turn the calendar into the last full month of the season, there are still hopes alive for many fantasy managers. Whether that is due to strong ownership or the fact that you have switched over to the far inferior game of fantasy football, we are closing in on the finish line. September is for the true baseball manager who weathered the season to reach the playoffs or make the final rotisserie push. This week, we try to find a hot hand that might make a difference as we look at two outfielders that are making noise in the NL Central. This week’s hitter profiles are ready to begin!
Lars Nootbaar
Not a Candy bar, although he did apply for a trademark, Nootbaar has been sweet as of late. Part of the reason for his potential emergence has simply been the opportunity to play with the Cardinals moving Harrison Bader to the Yankees. That move means the Cardinals had faith in the internal options with moving a Gold Glover from their patented defense. At this point, Nootbaar is in the lineup almost every day batting leadoff against righties and in the 9-hole against lefties. Batting in front of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt will certainly earn you a number of trips across the plate.
With the newfound playing time, he has hit .306 with a combined 28 R+RBI and a handful of homers (3) and steals (2). That is certainly across the board production. But the thing that is most exciting is the way he looks at the plate which is also showing up in his numbers through a 20% walk rate and a 45% hard hit rate during that timeframe. Lars is more of a line drive hitter than a flyball power hitter, but he is still on pace for over 15 long balls in a full season. Long-term, Nootbaar is likely to be a platoon bat at best and not breaking our starting fantasy lineups due to his inability to hit lefties. That said, he is crushing right handers today and is more than worth a plug and play the rest of this season in leagues with daily lineups.
Verdict: Buy as a platoon bat
Jake Fraley
Welcome to Buy or Sell Jake Fraley, it feels like we have been here before wearing Mariners colors in the early summer of 2021. Unfortunately at that time Jake fizzled and did not have any pop in his bat the rest of the season as he scuffled to a .180 average and only two homers in the second half of 2021. Early in 2022, Jake did not do much more as he hit a paltry .116 in the first half before a knee injury put him on the shelf. Since he has returned, however, he has performed like a different player hitting .318 with six homers across only 77 plate appearances.
So is this real? Well, he does seem to be hanging in there with better plate discipline as he is only striking out in 15% of plate appearances which is far below his career norm. In addition, his BABIP has merely been .318 since that return. Not so fast. Fraley has never been fleet of feet and that BABIP needs to be taken into Fraley’s career perspective where he runs a BABIP around .250 or 40 points below league average. In addition, his flyballs are leaving the ballpark at over a 30% clip which would place him behind Aaron Judge for second best in the league if we could qualify his at-bats. Finally, we look at his hard hit rate which is only 34.5% since he returned from injury which is still below league average. Ultimately, Fraley is on a lucky streak that will come crashing down sooner than folks may expect.
Verdict: Sell
