Last week we dug into a group of players that look primed to breakout this year and bring significant value to savvy fantasy owners. This week, we are going to flip the switch and look at the other side of the equation and what players to avoid at the draft table as potential busts. For our definition this time around, we are looking at the top 100 picks that may be on the outside looking in at the end of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Oftentimes, it is just as important to avoid a risky pick than finding the diamond in the rough. This week’s hitter profiles are bound to ruffle some feathers as we dig into some potential busts for 2025.
Willy Adames (ADP 76)
Willy Adames cashed in on a career year in 2024, hitting .251 with 32 homers and a shocking 21 steals, posting nearly 5 WAR, and earning a lucrative free-agent deal with the San Francisco Giants. But fantasy managers expecting a repeat in 2025 may be in for a rude awakening.
The biggest red flag? Those 21 steals came out of nowhere. Before last season, Adames had just 30 career steals across six seasons. That sudden spike was heavily influenced by playing for the aggressive Milwaukee Brewers, who ranked among the most active teams on the basepaths. Now that he’s in San Francisco, one of the least aggressive running teams, we have to expect a sharp decline in stolen bases. Even after considering the speed drop-off, Adames’ power production is also a question mark. Oracle Park is a known pitcher’s park, ranking as the third-worst park in MLB for right-handed power hitters. Combine that with Adames posting his highest flyball rate of his career in 2024, and it’s fair to wonder whether his 32-homer season was an outlier as well. His career numbers suggest a return closer to the 20 homer range rather than another campaign like 2024. Finally, we have to look at the batting average which was his highest in three years. His expected batting average (xBA) sat at just .243, showing some overachievement. A .240 average feels like a more reasonable projection for 2025.
With this profile and new situation in San Francisco, there are just too many concerns with the unsustainable speed, a power-sapping home park, and batting average risk. I’d much rather take Matt McLain a round later or wait 60+ picks for a high-average, well-rounded option like Masyn Winn or Xander Bogaerts. Let someone else overpay for last year’s career outlier.
Mark Vientos (ADP 92)
Mark Vientos made a loud impression in 2024, hitting .266 with 27 homers and 72 RBI across just 111 games. That kind of production, combined with the bright lights of New York, has sent his fantasy stock soaring. But before you buy in at the current draft price, there are some concerns we have to investigate. His 26.5% HR/FB rate ranked third among hitters with 250+ plate appearances, trailing only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. While Vientos did post strong power numbers in the minors, expecting him to maintain that rate in the majors is a stretch. A more reasonable expectation is for him to settle in the high teens, which would curb his home run ceiling.
Statcast confirms the power but also exposes major holes in his game. Vientos struggles with plate discipline, posting below-average contact rates, and an aggressive approach that leads to frequent chases outside the zone. Even more concerning, there’s a clear blueprint to exploit him—he’s a disaster against horizontal movement. Against sliders, sweepers, and curveballs, he hit well below .200, and he whiffed nearly half the time against sweepers specifically. It doesn’t take much for teams to adjust their offerings to take advantage of those holes.
Vientos isn’t without value, but his profile screams risk. Statcast comps him to Teoscar Hernández, Oneil Cruz, and Elly De La Cruz—guys with massive raw power but extreme volatility in their results. If everything clicks, he could return strong value, but his approach makes him a prime candidate for prolonged slumps and frustrating inconsistency. With Vientos currently being drafted as the seventh third baseman off the board, I’d rather pass and target more stable or equally high-upside options later, like Junior Caminero, Jordan Westburg, or Royce Lewis. Let someone else take the gamble on this rollercoaster ride.
James Wood (ADP 51)
We need to get the obvious out of the way—James Wood has immense potential and, long-term, he justifies this draft position or even higher. In 2025, he delivered a .264 average with nine homers and 14 steals, roughly equating to a 20/30 pace over a full season. His physical tools are significant, with top 15th percentile sprint speed and top 10th percentile exit velocity. That said, 2025 is the short-term for the 22-year-old, so we need to assess how those tools are developing.
Wood’s 14 stolen bases came with eight caught stealings, raising questions about his efficiency. He was a bit more effective in the minors, but it’s worth monitoring whether he retains the green light in Washington. The Nationals weren’t concerned with efficiency last season as a team, but until Wood becomes a more reliable baserunner, his stolen base ceiling will remain capped. In the hit took side of things his .264 average was slightly below expectations, with an xBA of .269, thanks in part to his speed. However, he struggled against offspeed pitches, making it likely that opposing teams will adjust and attack those weaknesses in 2025.
There’s no doubt Wood can crush the ball, but the problem is that he doesn’t elevate it enough to fully tap into his power. He posted a 2.4-degree launch angle, one of the lowest in the league, and hit fly balls just 18% of the time, five points below league average. Without changes to his approach, his home run total will remain limited. Add in a 29% strikeout rate, and there’s still work to be done before he reaches his potential. This profile reminds me of Ke’Bryan Hayes, but with a bit more ability to barrel the ball. The long-term upside is massive, but for 2025, expecting a major leap seems premature. Spending a top-four round pick on Wood seems steep, given the likelihood of similar production to last season unless he makes multiple adjustments. I expect gradual improvement over the next few years, but for 2025, I’d rather wait a few rounds for Brent Rooker or Jordan Westburg. Let’s revisit this conversation in 2026.
Someone was prepping for our NL East pod coming this week…
I love you, you’re gonna be at least two-thirds wrong on this post
Go big or go home right!?
I feel the same way about Vientos…I was thinking about offering him for Westberg…13 team dynasty 5×5…I love your work! What are your thoughts on the trade offer?
I would do that every day and then again!
Got the deal done traded Vientos and Porter Hodge for Westberg and Orion Kerkering!
Winning!!!
James Wood is my boo! How could you DO that to him?!?!?! Seriously, what you said makes a lot of sense. That, and given the fact that outfield runs deep and second base DEFINITELY doesn’t just made my decision on where to spend my money between him and Westburg a whole lot easier. Great write up!
Thanks! I even own Wood in a few places so it was definitely not what I wanted to write. He has so much long term potential and it is probably a blessing the Nats are not going to be very competitive!
Great article. I hate it when hitters get sent to death parks like SF and SEA. It’s hard for me to pay full price for all these guys based on ADP / projected auction price
With the exceptions of Matt Chapman and Victor Robles …..maybe Adames will be like Chapman.
Chapman was such an interesting enigma! I guess that is why they play the game!
I loved seeing Robles shine in Seattle after Washington did him they way they did. I wasn’t surprised because he’s always been legit and just hampered by injuries and poor management/playing time. But also not a big power bat. Chapman totally surprised me – but maybe he was energized to be back in the Bay Area.
I’ll definitely take a chance on Adames if he falls in drafts but scared by the current ADP when SS is so deep
It is so tough. Though we might see so inverse ones this year with TB and OAK.