Last week I offered some hitters that make up great Buy Low candidates, so I felt it was only right to head over to the pitchers. Especially considering how rough pitching has been lately with injuries, many of us are in need of pitching help. Here are a few guys to consider that may be available at a discount in your league.
Unfortunately for this post, CMart’s stock definitely went up after his last start. But thanks to the 4 awful outings prior, his value is still the lowest we’ve seen it the last few years. Since returning from the DL Martinez had rightfully worried owners, letting up 15 earned runs and walking 20 batters in 16.2 innings. Martinez went 6 strong against the Cleveland Indians last outing, surrendering 2 earned runs on 6 hits and one walk, while striking out 8 in his first win since May 2nd. The biggest takeaways are that he pitched very well against a top offense, and that he walked just one batter after struggling tremendously with his command in his previous appearances. This outing will ease the tensions of most CMart owners and drive his asking price up a bit. However, I envision that many owners will see this as an opportunity to sell him after a great outing, and you could take advantage of that. He appears to have polished his control, and represents one of my favorite “Buy Low” candidates.
Steamer ROS: 5-5 in 14 GS (88 IP), 9.16 K/9, 3.65 BB/9, 3.98 ERA, 3.96 FIP
I know, I know. You’re probably tired of people telling you that Jon Gray is way better than his numbers show. But he is! Through 16 starts he is 7-7 with a gross 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. However his 3.02 FIP ranks 10th in the league and his 2.82 xFIP ranks 6th. His ERA sits at a disastrous 5.52, yet his top-10 FIP mark sits at 3.02. That represents a difference of 2.50, and is nearly unheard of. Additionally, his opponents have a wOBA of .336 but an xwOBA of .298. That difference is .038 and is the 12th largest difference among pitchers. In short, his metrics show that he is a much better pitcher than his surface numbers indicate and facing some unfavorable luck. His 11.45 K/9 ranks 8th in the MLB, and 2.4 WAR is 14th among pitchers. I know, it is difficult to get behind a pitcher that calls Coors home. If it makes you feel any better, he’s not doing much better ERA wise on the road. And screw what his ERA is. In H2H we care about what his ERA will be going forward, and his numbers indicate it should see some improvement going forward.
Steamer ROS: 6-5 in 16 GS (95 IP), 9.92 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, 3.83 ERA, 3.59 FIP
Pivetta is a handful of bad outings from posting one of the top ERA marks in the league. So take advantage of his 4.06 ERA (through 84.1 innings) and buy him low if you can. He too has an ERA higher than what his metrics (3.25 SIERA) indicate it should be. His 3.21 FIP is significantly off his 4.06 ERA, and is 16th best in the MLB. His 3.23 xFIP ranks 13th, and his 10.78 K/9 is 11th best in the MLB. His 11.9% swinging strike rate has helped him propel that mark, and he should continue to punch batters out at a high clip. The Phillies have really impressed this year, so his team should give him plenty of opportunities to win. He has been one of the most underrated pitchers thus far, and should have a strong finish to the year.
Steamer ROS: 5-5 in 14 GS (75 IP), 9.89 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, 4.06 ERA, 4.05 FIP
Garrett Richards
It is always tricky trading for pitchers that are on the DL, since you never really know what they’ll look like upon their activation. Or if (or when) they will suffer a setback and hit the DL again. But sometimes you need to take that risk and hope it pays off. With Richards, I think this is a guy that could pay off. Before he went down with a hamstring injury, he posted 4 wins in 14 starts with a 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He was able to rack up 78 strikeouts in 68.1 innings, good for a 10.27 K/9. That would rank top 20th among starting pitchers if he still qualified. His xFIP would rank in the top 30, and he posted a 3.85 SIERA. I do not think his injury is overly serious, and Mike DiGiovanna reported that he should be in line to return to the Angels’ rotation next week. Richards is definitely worth a look if you are looking for someone to buy low.
Steamer ROS: 5-4 in 13 GS (75 IP), 9.45 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 3.49 ERA, 3.58 FIP
