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So, wasn’t expecting to write a George Springer overrated post. Didn’t seem like a guy who could possibly be overrated. What’s to overrate? You know him and he just missed half of last season, and he always misses time. Why is he even overrated? I’m having a hard time figuring that out. His Steamer projections from us are 100/32/85/.257/7 in 524 ABs. Don’t think any of those numbers are unattainable. I have him down for 91/27/63/.246/7 in 503 ABs. So, few less homers; same steals; little less average; counting stats are what they are. My problem is. Dot dot dot. Pause for effect. Dramatic sting. Why is that being drafted in the top 50 overall? If I told you I had a 27/7/.250 hitter, you’d say to me, “That’s a pretty cool story, bro, is it Anthony Rizzo?” And I’d say to you, “No, it’s George Springer,” and you’d say, “No, it’s not, but cool way to disguise Anthony Santander, Broseph,” and I’d say, “I’m not your Broseph, I’m being serious. Are you only able to guess Anthony names?” And you’d say, “Easy, Chilly Wills, is it Eduardo Escobar,” and I’d say, “No, CHILLY WILLS! IT’S GEORGE SPRINGER?!” And you’d say, “I think you suddenly went deaf because you started screaming,” and I’d say, “I’m no longer having this conversation,” and you’d say, “Is it Eddie Rosario?” And I’d throw you off the horsey we were sharing on this carousel of thoughts. So, what can we expect from George Springer for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Psyche! So, yesterday, I said I was updating my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings, but later on I discussed it with Rudy and we’re holding tight for now, because, honestly, one week missed of games isn’t going to change anything. What, I’m gonna remove three runs, three RBIs and four-tenths of a homer and steal? Next week, we’ll reevaluate and potentially take two weeks of stats off the projections, or something else, yet to be considered. Next week, I’ll also do a state of the game roundup and discuss Acuña, Kershaw, and others. Anyway II, why is George Springer is overrated?
Clearly, I think George Springer is overrated even if he reaches his projections, but let’s take a solid 750-word journey through why he won’t even reach those stats. His Launch Angle was up to 19 degrees last year, and that produced a 46.6% fly ball rate. What that does to a guy is best illustrated by Eugenio Suarez’s .198 average last year. Springer has more speed, so the .286 BABIP on Springer last year might be the beginning of the end vs. the end. These trends are not great. It was his highest Launch Angle and fly ball rate, by far. By far, far. By very far.
George Springer’s Hard Contact was 34.4%. I don’t want to put too much stank on his name, but his Launch Angle, FB% and Hard Contact% is kinda, super like Eduardo Escobar, who everyone agrees is a .240 hitter. Another guy who his batted ball profile is a lot like is Eugenio Suarez. Yes, it was not a mistake I mentioned them earlier. Know what Springer’s xBA was last year? .247. Does this seem like a guy who is about to hit .257 or .246? Harping on this because there’s only so many places to disagree here. Let’s just say, if you think you’re getting a guy who is projected for .257, but could hit .270; I think nuh-uh. For me, he’s being projected as .246, but could easily hit .230 or worse. That will also feed his counting stats.
As for the power, the Jays got a humidor last year. Might mean nothing, might mean something. Just saying it’s there. Rogers Centre played very pitcher-friendly last year. Much more so than the previous years. Rogers was pretty neutral prior to 2020. You take a 46.6% FB% into a pitchers’ park, and Springer might start standing at home, squinting towards the outfield fences, while the ball arcs lazily into the left fielder’s glove. He’s also become crazy pull heavy (up to 46.6, easily highest of his career). Maybe he’s imagining himself still in the bandbox in Houston, and badonkadonk’ing into the Crawford Boxes. Maybe he liked the results when he pulled the ball, which was a .407 average. Yeah, that’s totally repeatable! No problem there! You know who else pulls the ball that much? Eduardo Escobar! Sorry, never expected this to become “Don’t draft George Springer when you can get Eduardo Escobar 135 picks later,” but, alas, here we are. Oh, and Escobar has the ever-elusive 3rd base eligibility too! Any hoo! Escobar hit .379 on pulled balls, and Arenado was around there too. .370 on pulled balls? Sure. .407? Um, yeah, no. Don’t draft George Springer in the top 50 overall; draft Eduardo Escobar, Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Santander, or Eddie Rosario 75 picks later, and stamp Springer as a schmohawk!
