After a couple of rough weeks, we bounced back big time last week. Pretty much every one of our streamers performed up to expectations, aside from Jake Arrieta. Just saying that annoys me, but we knew that the two-start guys were risky going in. In any case, we’re satisfied with the results, and we’re going to trust the process by abusing terrible lineups like the Pirates, Tigers, Orioles, Rockies, and Rangers. Those teams have been featured heavily in this article all year, and you better believe we’re going to keep exploiting them. There’s a lot to discuss, though, so let’s go back to the well with the Ski-Ball man himself!
Two-Start Streamers
Tarik Skubal, DET (vs. STL, vs. HOU)
We had Skubal as one of our streamers last week, and we’re playing Ski-Ball yet again. This man has developed into one of the best strikeout pitchers in the AL over the last month, owning a 13.6 K/9 rate across his last six starts. It’s not like they’re empty strikeouts either, tallying a 3.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in that span as well. That’s got 2017 Robbie Ray written all over it, and it’s hard to overlook any guy who can provide 15 Ks in a one-week span.
The only worrisome part of this is the two matchups, but we’re getting to a point where Skubal might become matchup-proof. A major reason for that is this ballpark, with Comerica Field being one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. That’s on full display when you see that it ranks 24th in park factor and even more clear when you see Skubal’s dominant splits there (3.46 ERA). The Hoston matchup is obviously horrifying, but we certainly don’t mind that the Cardinals rank 26th in OPS and 29th in both wOBACON and OBP.
Ross Stripling, TOR (at MIA, vs. BAL)
Stripling turns fantasy owners on and off as much as this beauty above, and we think he’s going to be opening eyes this week. The biggest reason we love him is his matchups, facing the Orioles and Marlins. Those are two teams we’ve been exploiting all season, with Miami ranked 22nd in OBP, 25th in wOBA, and dead-last in xwOBA, while Baltimore sits 21st in runs scored and 26th in xwOBA.
That’s all you can hope for from one of our streamers, and Stripling is in his best stretch of the season right now. In fact, Ross has a 2.45 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9 rate over his last five outings. That’s the guy that we saw in Los Angeles, with Stripling pitching to a 3.51 ERA and 1.20 WHIP before joining Toronto last season. The Streamonator loves Stripling as well, projecting him for a 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP en route to providing $16.7 worth of value.
Jake Odorizzi, HOU (at BAL, at DET)
This one is risky because of the volatility of this rotation, but it appears Odorizzi will be the sixth man for the Stros. It’s no surprise either, with Odorizzi owning a 3.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his last five appearances. Some of those would indicate that he might be limited to five or six innings, but that’d be fine from a guy this consistent. We’re talking about a righty who registered a 3.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP between 2013-19, which is really impressive from a player who’s widely available. The best part about using him might be these matchups, though, with Detroit and Baltimore both looking like blood banks. We already discussed the Orioles earlier, but the Motor City Kitties currently sit bottom-five in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA, and K rate.
One-Start Streamers
Chris Flexen, SEA (vs. COL)
While this picture is absolutely terrifying, getting Flexen into your lineups shouldn’t be. I actually had the pleasure of watching this guy in the KBO last season (thanks, COVID!), and he really impressed me in his time with the NC Dinos. The Mariners pitcher provided a 3.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 rate in his 21 starts with the Dinos, earning him a job with the M’s. They were so impressed with that and his spring training stuff that they handed him one of the final jobs in this rotation.
While the right-hander did struggle early on, he’s definitely found his KBO form recently. If you take out one horrific start against a stout San Diego lineup, Flexen has a 4.12 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over his other 11 starts. That looks even better when you see that Flex has two shutouts lasting at least seven innings in his last four appearances, generating a 2.65 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in that span. All of that puts him in play against anyone, but the Rockies on the road are a ravishing matchup. Colorado currently ranks dead-last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA on the road, barely scoring over 2.5 runs a game. This is one of the Streamonator’s favorite streamers of the week, projecting Flexen to drop $17.2 worth of value.
Jameson Taillon, NYY (vs. KC)
Many fantasy owners have given up on Taillon (and rightfully so), but we need to look deeper into his numbers. The Yankees starter has an ugly 5.59 ERA but has been much better than that. In fact, JT has a 4.21 xERA and 4.47 xFIP, indicating that some positive regression is headed his way. We’re talking about a guy who had a 3.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP before signing with the Yanks, and it’s just a matter of time before he gets closer to those numbers.
It’s not like he has crazy shelling potential either, allowing four runs or fewer in 12 of his 13 starts. Getting to face the Royals should reload some of that regression, with Kansas City sitting 19th in OBP, 22nd in xwOBACON, and 20th in runs scored. We also don’t mind the fact that he will get a home start behind this lusty lineup, with Taillon likely entering this matchup as a -150 favorite or higher.
Mike Minor, KC (at TEX)
Minor has been in this article on many occasions this season, and it’s a wonder why more people aren’t picking him up. The southpaw has a 4.03 xFIP and 1.15 WHIP this season while accruing the best strikeout rate of his career. That’s on full display in his recent numbers, with MM amassing a 3.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9 rate over his last six starts.
What’s also amazing about Minor is his road splits, accruing a 2.73 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 11.5 K/9 rate outside of KC this season. We used to worry about Texas in terms of the park factor, but it’s actually developed into one of the best pitching environments in baseball. That’s clear because the Rangers rank 23rd in K rate, 24th in OBP, and 26th in wOBA. The Streamonator agrees with our assessment, projecting Minor to provide $8.6 worth of value.
Streamers to Consider
Adrian Houser, MIL (vs. COL)
We already discussed how pathetic the Rockies offense is on the road, and it definitely puts Houser in play. The right-hander has a 1.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9 rate over his last four starts and should roll right through the Rockies.
Patrick Corbin/Joe Ross, WAS (at MIA)
Corbin and Ross have been all over the board, but they both have a lot of upside. The reason we can trust their volatility this week is the fact that they face a 22nd-ranked Marlins offense in one of the most spacious ballparks in baseball.
Johan Oviedo, STL (at DET, vs. PIT)
Oviedo just threw seven shutout innings in his last start, and that alone makes him one of the best streamers with matchups like these. The Pirates and Tigers might have the two worst lineups in baseball, making Oviedo awesome in a two-start week.
Feel free to comment me here or reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel if you have any questions!
