One of the easiest things to do in DFS is to abandon ship. On Twitter, you can find all the folks you follow in total shambles over the results of the evening’s gameplan. So as you prepare for the next day, it would be real easy to see a good play but pass on it because you feel the burn of the previous evening’s results.
Rather than bailing on the play, there is no better time to double-down on that play, because there are going to be plenty of people who will not get on the boat again, leaving you to be the one to cash in on what you knew was a good play.
You have to have a cornerback’s mentality to have fun at DFS, otherwise you’ll find yourself with a Do-Not-Roster list longer than the player’s eligible. Do your research and trust your process. What you can’t trust is your own recency bias.
With that said, it takes a real thick-skinned player to go back to the well a third time when the other two times haven’t worked out. Yet, that’s exactly what I’m doing tomorrow when I have at least one lineup with a Milwaukee Brewer stack in it for tournament play.
The Brewers have scored a whopping two runs in their first two games, at home, against the not-so-intimidating Colorado Rockies staff. Wednesday they face Eddie Butler, a hard-throwing but otherwise hittable arm that occupies the three slot in the Rockies rotation. So, Adam Lind, Jonathan Lucroy, you’re not leaving my lineups just yet.
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Jordan Zimmermann, SP: $9,200 – Zimmermann is the top pitcher on the slate, but he’s not that much stronger than McCarthy below here. Still, with a lot of value in the field, it’s worth a little security going with Zimmermann at home against the Mets.
Brandon McCarthy, SP: $7,900 – One thing about the first week of the season is that all the aces pitch on the same day and then by the third game, there are no high-priced starters on the slate. McCarthy had a fantastic second half of the season after a rough first half. McCarthy is an excellent K:BB guy, which is an excellent point spreader in DFS. McCarthy is at home, at cushy Chavez Ravine, and has the Padres, which forecasts to be a low number game.
Lance Lynn, SP: $8,300 (Early Game) – Wanted to call this out because the Cubs strike out a-plenty. Lynn isn’t an overpowering pitcher, but he can take advantage of a whiffy team like the Cubs. Lynn was supposed to pitch Tuesday, but the game was postponed so he’ll get the ball instead of John Lackey Wednesday.
Jonathan Lucroy, C: $4,200 – So begins the triple-down of Brewers vs. Rockies plays. I simply believe. Lucroy gets the aforementioned Butler as the opposing pitcher and the Brewers are due.
Adam Lind, 1B: $4,000 – I mean they are due. Lind has done alright so far, despite the whole run scoring problem the team as a whole is having, and has the same good matchup that Lucroy has, except Lind is a lefty facing an RHP.
David Ortiz, 1B: $4,500 – Ortiz hammers right-handed pitching and Aaron Harang struggles against strong lefties like Ortiz. Though playing in a NL park, Ortiz handled first base Opening Day so there shouldn’t be a problem with him in the lineup.
Victor Martinez, 1B: $4,500 – As much as Harang struggles, Twins starter Ricky Nolasco struggles even more, third worst among qualifying pitchers against lefties. Martinez still crushes the ball regularly, being near the top of the hard hit ball category.
Jace Peterson, 2B, Braves: $3,100 – Hard to go against someone priced this low that is batting second in the lineup, especially when Peterson can grab a steal here and there.
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $3,800 – Miguel Gonzalez is also on the list of pitchers who don’t do well at all against lefties, and Cabrera is one of the few Rays that can take advantage. Cabrera whiffed three times Tuesday, so this is a good place to put the recency bias aside and roster the guy.
Hanley Ramirez, SS/OF: $4,800 – Playing Hanley at shortstop feels like cheating. I expect that Mookie Betts and David Ortiz will do really well, allowing Ramirez to pick up where he left off Opening Day, blasting home runs.
Brett Lawrie, 3B: $3,800 – Lawrie gets a LHP, Ross Detwiler, to face as he continues to adjust being in a new park. Lawrie’s price is right, as is the matchup.
Jake Lamb, 3B: $3,700 – Raking already this season and with an undervalued price tag, Lamb has a good matchup against the Giants as they are having to run emergency starters out there already with injuries to Peavy and Cain.
Gerardo Parra, OF: $3,100 – With Ryan Braun sidelined, Parra is an excellent play at this price, especially against RHP Butler, who we’ve touched on already. He’s batting sixth, which isn’t terrible, and should be able to take advantage of facing the young pitcher.
Ender Inciarte, OF: $3,200 – Ender led off Tuesday night against Ryan Vogelsong, so he’s a good target here as far as opportunity if the team bats him in the leadoff slot again.
Andrew McCutchen, OF: $5,200 – If you are going to pay up above 5K in the OF, then McCutchen in the Great American Ballpark is a great way to go. Cutch celebrated not facing Johnny Cueto by launching a home run off Kevin Gregg. Mike Leake is crafty, something not often said about right handed pitchers, but Cutch is more dangerous than Leake is sneaky.
David Peralta, OF: $3,800 – Peralta is really good against RHP and hit cleanup Tuesday night, where he went deep of Ryan Vogelsong. Right-handed replacement pitchers look just as good and Peralta should be in good shape to drive in runs.
Kevin Kiermaier, OF: $3,900 – This is a bonus play and caveat that if the Rays keep batting him down the order, he’s not a great play, obviously, than if he’s batting where Brandon Guyer did today against a LHP (leadoff). If Kiermaier is leading off against Gonzalez, then his 3.9K tag is worth rostering.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is a lot of rain in the forecast for Wednesday, so while we all hope that the rain, rain goes away, you should be vigilant about checking the weather for your games. Right now no fewer than seven games look like they will get rain, with the Pirates/Reds and White Sox/Royals games looking the most impacted at this time.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Giants/Diamondbacks game looks to be the highest scoring affair of the night, with a nine run total. Arizona has the highest team total of the slate as well with a 4.72 number, hence the calls for Inciarte, Lamb and Peralta. On the other side, the Mets and Rangers have the lowest team totals with 2.97 and 3.08 runs scored respectively.
