I wanted to apply some math to Francisco Lindor’s injury and discuss some options as you head into your drafts… With a strained calf, Lindor is projected to miss 7-9 weeks, retroactive to on or about February 8th. This means that the Indian’s shortstop will miss valuable Spring Training time and Opening Day. (He is projected to be back on the field at the earliest, mid-April.)
A strained calf could be a nagging injury or it could be nothing. If Lindor comes back mid- April, or early May -we must also take into consideration the weather in Cleveland- it ain’t Florida and April and early May can still register February temperatures. Keep this in mind, last season Lindor hit .257 w 4 HRs , 5 SBs in April and in May hit .373 w 10 HR’s. So Lindor may take awhile to heat up.
So what if he doesn’t get cookin’ until the middle or end of May or even early June!? You could conceivably lose 1.5- 2 months of healthy production from Lindor, so let’s go inside the numbers: 1.5 months is 25% of a six month season, two months is 33%.
So lets deduct his projected production by these percentages :
- Last year he had 38 Hr and 25 SBs . This coming year, before the injury Steamer projected him for 31 HR 21 SBs.
- Lets just split the difference on HRs, so add 3.5 to 31 that gives him 34.5, ( call it 35 ), and adding 2 to 21 gives him 23 swipes.
- So my 2019 adjusted projections for this player, before the injury are: 35 HRS and 23 SB0
Now, assume he only misses 1.5 months of top production:
So, we subtract 25% from those numbers… 25% of 35 is 8.75, so 8.75 from 35 HRs gives him 27.25 HRs and for SB, 25% of 23 is 5.75 so 18 bags. If he misses a month and a half of production, NOT playing time but top tier, healthy production Lindor is now at approximately 27 HR and 18 SB. If he misses two months of top production, that’s 33% of 35 is 11.5, so that’s 24.5 HRs and 33% of 23 is 7.5 giving him 16.5 (call it 17), this now projects Lindor for 25 HR 17 SB !
NOTE: Steamer has Lindor Projected for 29 HR and 20 SB’s as of this writing post injury.
At the assumption that he misses just a month and half of top production, Steamer projects that Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Manny Machado (this may change given his new digs) would be hitting more HRS than guys like Jose Peraza, Tim Anderson, Jean Segura, Amed Rosario and Trevor Story (among others) at the position having 16 or more steals.
If we assume him to miss 2 months of top production , u can add Carlos Corea, Paul DeJong and Cory Seager to be at or near his HR production.
Essentially, with these projections, Francisco Lindor statistically becomes Javy Baez.
Now, dont fret, because you can still create Lindor- like production by drafting two shortstops to match his stats . Consider Paul DeJong , Correa or Seager for the HR’s and perhaps couple him with a player like Jose Peraza for SBs. Jean Segura may also provide you 20 steals, 15 Hr’s, hit in the .280’s in a lineup that may not be done getting better, if you catch my drift.
If you’re still on the fence, try looking at a guy like Jurickson Profar in later rounds to fill out your stats to make you feel better but I am personally looking at Carlos Correa, I think he could be very-very-very good this season.
Here’s a final strategy thought: Utilize the pick you were going to use on Lindor and maybe grab a top tier pitcher and send your draft into a frenzy by creating a run on pitchers, all while you sit back and target other players. (Also, remember that Alex Bregman is shortstop eligible in a lot of leagues and that may be a sneaky move.)
Okay, good luck, be safe, have fun and Ill see you out there!
You can find me by following @StrikeZonePod, the new podcast available on Spotify, iTunes and everywhere else as well as well as @Matt_Striker_