If anyone gets the D2: The Mighty Ducks reference in the title, brilliant! I went backwards today and wrote about the players I am focusing on below before this initial breakdown. I don’t want to write too much here, because my basic message is that I like the Cardinals and the Blue Jays tonight. I like their prices that make them easier to stack and I like that I can fill a lot of positions with quality bats between those two teams. There is so much more to like on today’s slate, but you have to pick your angle and go with it in order to win at MLB DFS.
Do you want to spend up at bats and pay down at pitching? Consider rostering full stacks of the Atlanta Braves. They are expensive and therefore difficult to stack, but they have Acuna back, and most of their other bats are heating up too. Similarly, New York Yankees are an expensive stack, but have a nice matchup for HRs in Dodger Stadium against Tony Gonsolin. The Yankees hit fly balls at a 44% rate so Gonsolin’s GB tilting ways will be challenged.
Have a fun night and stay within your budget. It will be fun to win any size contest at any price, just remember that!
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Bryan Woo, SP: $9,500 – When a pitcher has elite control and is beating those elite projections, you have something pretty special. T-Mobile park is a huge advantage to Woo, MIN is just an average team, and Woo normally sees close to 100 pitches. So, I am rolling with the expensive and trustworthy Woo tonight.
David Peterson, SP: $9,000 – (or Matt Liberatore $8,700) My partner and I have both pitchers on a dynasty team and have been holding them for years. They are both changing before our eyes into very serviceable SPs, and even able to dominate in some matchups. The location+ score is the best it has ever been for both – for Liberatore, the change is extremely significant. Tonight, both pitchers are in spots where they can post ceiling scores; Peterson faces the Rockies in New York and Liberatore is on the road against a struggling Rangers offense. There are a bunch of top tier options tonight.
Pedro Pages, C: $2,900 – Pages usually gets the call at C while Ivan Herrera continues to be used as a DH. He has a .175 babip over the last 30 days, but has still been hitting the ball hard 37% of the time. I like the Cardinals tonight, and I will be including Pages in my STL stacks, knowing that babip will regress to a more normal number, which should benefit Pages’ DFS scores going forward.
Willson Contreras, 1B: $4,100 – The price is right for this contact first hitter with a good amount of power. I trust him to get good pitches to hit vs. Leiter and do some damage in the middle of that Cards lineup.
Ernie Clement, 2B: $2,400 – When you play a low cost guy like Clement at a position loaded with studs like last night (3B), even a ceiling game from Clement cannot compete with players like Junior Caminero, who just have more upside. Clement belongs on rosters at 2B and his skills will play tonight again.
Austin Riley, 3B: $4,600 – This is a really good baseball player in the middle of a loaded lineup. Riley consistently drives the ball and has been on a nice hot streak through all of May I think. His price should/will be higher still.
Bo Bichette, SS: $4,100 – Bichette must have worked on restoring that strong swing from 2022 because all of his hard hit data looks good again. He has a great eye at the plate which puts him atop the order and his power is good for a budget SS.
George Springer, OF: $4,300 – If you squint, you may be able to see the younger version of George Springer still lurking in his 2025 self. The underlying data sure projects a youthful Springer and his price is within the budget. Go Jays!
Alec Burleson, OF: $3,800 – I’ll continue to save salary in the OF knowing there are plenty of nice things to spend up on. Burleson fits with my love of all things Cards tonight and it just so happens he has been nicely rounding into form over the course of the month. He will be priced in the $4,000s soon.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is plenty of happiness to go around, and one game that has already been called, CWS at BAL. Look out for the Mets-Rockies game tonight, as there is rain in the area and definitely later in the night. It also looks like there is some significant weather in ATL tonight, but in the form of a helping wind.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There are plenty of higher scoring over/unders tonight, indicating the weather is warming up in places and the bats are definitely getting hot. Framber Valdez has a nice line in his favor and should not be forgotten tonight. I also notice how elite the ARI offense is as indicated by their implied run total tonight over 5 against a decent SP in Jake Irvin. That WAS bullpen is really bad as well. I may up my interest in ARI as a result.
