In 2018, the Astros won the AL West, and deGrom and Scherzer led the league in all pitching categories.
In a recent post on X, Michael Kasper @KasperStats shared the impact of different metrics (stats) on runs scored. It was news to my eyes when I saw good old wOBA right up there with the highest coefficient of determination. I have updated my process to look more closely at this team stat as I determine what offenses are going to score the most runs tonight. Runs scored do not always equal fantasy goodness (we want those runs scored by way of the HR and love to include SB points as well), but I am always looking for the best metrics to analyze the slate from a raw data perspective before adding my own DFS interpretations.
The raw data brings the following offenses to my attention today: SEA, TOR, LAA, HOU, ATL, TB, CHC, TEX, and STL. CHC and SEA have the most combined HRs + SBs with TB and TEX lagging in HRs, but the top two teams in the league for SBs over the last 30 days. ATL is facing a SP whose 7.5% HR/FB limits an offense last in SBs and batting only .239 as a team. LAA and HOU have power without SBs, and TOR is on a heater and facing a young phenom.
My lineup building time begins as lineups are announced during the day. I will look at each of these teams and try to create 5 man stacks that take advantage of good lineup spots for cheaper players, team pricing, and the ability to save OF, SS, and 1B roster spots for one offs and secondary stacks. I find that paying up for SS gives you access to the highest scoring players, and there are lots of deals at OF as well as high upside one offs.
Pitching is also a part of DFS, and there is plenty of good pitching tonight, but I have a couple recommendations below.
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Jacob deGrom, SP: $9,800 – Texas has sneakily been a really great park to pitch in over the past 2-3 years. deGrom has been beaten in some games by the long ball, something the Athletics do well, but he also has pinpoint control and should have a good number of Ks in this outing. He scores the top projection on Razzball’s Streamonator for tonight.
Max Scherzer, SP: $7,500 – Forget the kids! Let’s just play aging veterans tonight. Scherzer is an attractive option mostly for his reduced price. He is pitching at home in a friendly ballpark, and Gausman just quieted the Yankee bats quite well last night. I know I can rely on Scherzer for a good score, and he has a bit of K upside given the matchup and ballpark.
Victor Caratini, C: $3,500 – The #3 hitter in the Astros lineup is putting nearly everything in play and hitting things hard. The veteran is benefiting from the injuries in the Astros lineup, so let’s benefit as well.
Christian Walker, 1B: $3,200 – The #4 Astros hitter is also severely underpriced for this matchup. Walker is a 2k discount from some more attractive options (Busch, Vlad, TB 1B), so I will not hesitate to pay up, but the price and matchup are great.
Miguel Rojas, 2B: $2,500 – When he is eligible at 2B on DK I love to roster Rojas. He regularly bats 7th – 9th in the order, and in his last 8 full games, he has DK point totals of 23, 17, 14, and 21. Why? He makes a ton of contact, hits the ball hard, and hits it in the air.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $4,000 – SF has what looks to be a nice matchup tonight, but most of their stars are struggling. Not so for Chapman and my next suggestion at SS. Roster them in this nice ballpark when it’s hot and humid and all the ATL pitchers are hurt.
Willy Adames, SS: $4,200 – He is really on a heater and making up for some lost time in April-May. I love the Chapman/Adames combo tonight on rosters.
Seiya Suzuki, OF: $5,100 – Suzuki hits the ball hard against both handedness of pitchers, but his plate discipline really shines vs. lefties. If anyone is going to take advantage of Rich Hill’s 20th year in the majors, it’s Suzuki. Nevermind that the wind isn’t blowing out, it’s still hot.
Cam Smith, OF: $3,700 – The leadoff batter for the Astros is very cheap, and although he hasn’t taken to the role atop the lineup yet, looking at his rolling charts indicates he is primed for a resurgence. Most of all, I like the bats around him and want to take advantage of his price and the matchup as well.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There are some weather concerns in Tampa Bay tonight,t and it is largely unknown whether that game will be able to finish 9 innings dry. Storms in that area are unpredictable (which is why the permanent stadium is a dome).
Doing Lines In Vegas
N/A
