DFS is never easy. I am mired in a slump of sorts where it seems like I am a day or two off of my recommendations. It basically seems like every time I roster a player or a pitcher, they have their ceiling game a day or two after I roster them. Still, I must remember that all I can control as a DFS player are my selections and not the results. Over the course of an entire season and an entire DFS career, good selections should result in good DFS results. Again, I have a very clear direction on how to attack today’s slate and some good players to recommend. If for some reason these players do not have good performances today, don’t totally write them off because tomorrow could be the day they reach their ceiling score.
The pitchers at the top of the price ranges are superb today. Some of the location+ numbers are becoming more useful because after 400 pitches those numbers start to mean something. The SPs that are throwing today with excellent location+ numbers are Hunter Brown (103 location+), Nate Eovaldi (107 location+), Joe Ryan (105 location+), Max Meyer (108 location+) and JP Sears (108 location+). I am always interested in guys who are putting the ball where they want it. Brown is also a leader in stuff+ (111 – 4th best) which shows you why he has a 2.8 SIERA and is always expected to limit run production and produce lots of Ks. Joe Ryan has a 105 stuff+ and a resultant 2.75 SIERA. I am particularly attracted to these elite SPs tonight since the lower ends of the pricing tiers have mostly average or below average SPs to target. I think Tylor Megill could pitch a gem vs. the White Sox tonight, and Corbin Burnes vs. the hapless Pirates is an obviously attractive spot. Those spots are not really elite though.
I can get on board with a Bowden Francis shot tonight against a right hand heavy Texas lineup or Taj Bradley vs an average MIN team. I don’t expect big scores from either of those guys, but they do help you cut costs at the SP position if needed.
You may want to save salary at SP if rostering the potent NYY stack vs a very beatable Tyler Anderson. ARI and CHC are also expensive stacks that will require some salary savings, but also allow access to some of the best offenses in some of the best matchups tonight. Also look at BOS vs. Aaron Civale, an SP trying to find his groove after starting his season a bit late due to a hamstring strain. SEA is facing one of the worst SPs on the slate in Mitchell Parker. With their power, SEA may be the stack you had to have tonight.
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Joe Ryan, SP: $9, 700 – Simply put, Ryan is having an excellent season with his highest K rate and lowest walk rate of an already stellar career. His stuff+ and location+ numbers are among the elite pitchers and the TB Rays are in the bottom third of the league in HRs despite playing a ton of games in a park replica of Yankee Stadium. I think Ryan can handle this team.
Tylor Megill, SP: $8, 700 – While I like Hunter Brown, his price is too high to recommend. Play him if the salaries fit. Megill on the other hand is a high upside play for DFS tonight. He does not need any help inducing Ks, but could use some help from opposing teams limiting hard contact. The White Sox should be a good matchup for that.
Carlos Narvaez, C: $3,600 – Narvaez plays for the Red Sox and has been a career minor leaguer till he got traded to Boston at age 26. He has run high babip rates through the minors which is supported by his impressive hard hit rates. He is one player who will fly under the radar on an 11 game slate and could be a valuable part of a BOS stack (or mini stack) tonight.
Donovan Solano, 1B: $2,000 – Do you want a creative way to save salary tonight while still including a player who leads first basemen in hard hit rates over the last 30 days? I thought so. Solano is 37 years old and will get pinch hit for after Mitchell Parker is replaced, that is, unless SEA has built up a lead, which is what we need if we want to win a tourney. Solano has a nice floor, but has a big ceiling at only 2k.
Jose Altuve, 2B: $3,900 – You know who no one will be playing tonight? The Astros have the least number of PAs against left handed pitching this year, and maybe that small sample is why Jose Altuve’s numbers vs. lefties do not stand out. Altuve has always been sort of an auto play vs. lefties, until this year. In 2024, he had a 179 w RC+ vs. LHPs (148 career), and I am considering rostering him tonight as a one off to be different.
Marcelo Mayer, 3B: $3,200 – Mayer was promoted to the majors to fill in for an injured Bregman, but it does not look initially like he was rushed. The 23 year old has succeeded at multiple levels including at AAA this year and his 9 batted ball events since getting called up have resulted in 92 mph avg exit velocity and 44% hard hit rate. He is cheap enough that I would include him in my Red Sox stacks that pay up at the SP position.
J.P. Crawford, SS: $3,300 – He continues to lead off against both right and left handed starters and M. Parker is no lefty killer, in fact his numbers to LHBs have been worse this year. Crawford is an easy answer at SS, but he often is merely an accumulator, meaning extra base hits and SBs are not common for him, but hits, runs and RBIs also count.
Randy Arozarena, OF: $4,200 – This price is a steal tonight. Arozarena faces one of the worst pitchers and has huge splits vs LHPs (150 wRC+), not to mention the fact that he has 9 SBs with 0 times caught stealing and hits in the middle of the potent SEA lineup.
Judge, Tucker, Carroll, OF: $6,300-$6,600 – Rostering one of these stud OFs is a good idea tonight as an anchor to your lineup and a threat to hit two bombs or add a SB or two to the tally. These guys are so good and all have incredible matchups tonight. In a 3 max, roster one on each lineup.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It’s not gonna rain tonight in these games, but it is going to be cold in Wrigley with the wind blowing in. That matters, especially when the Cubs are facing the Rockies. I am still invested in the Cubs offense because Marquez gives up a lot of hits, not necessarily HRs. It will also be hot in Tampa, which may influence my decision to roster Joe Ryan.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas is pretty much in line with my thinking. The highest projected team totals based on Vegas lines are for 1) ARI 2) NYY 3) NYM 4) CHC 5) HOU 6) SEA. I am not interested in rostering the Mets. They have been cold and play in a difficult park for hitting. I am also more interested in the Red Sox than Vegas is. MIL has a lot of lefty RPs so I want to ensure I don’t roster any lefties that struggle vs. LHPs (Abreu for example).
