It’s June 24th, everyone, and we have a ton of info as regards this MLB season. In fact, we can pinpoint the best plays and will likely hit on a bunch of those picks. However, not every “best play” will hit, which makes rostering the higher owned “best plays” a losing move in DFS. We need to be certain who the best players are and also willing to avoid that play if there is a legitimate chance at the same ceiling from a lower owned player.
Many rosters will take advantage of the top two lefties on this slate. I will likely be picking Garrett Crochet (likely higher owned) or Rodon (lower owned based on opponent and ballpark) for most of my rosters. If you read this article last week, you will remember that lefties are harder to hit than comparable RHPs (S. Strider) who is another option on this slate. The other highly owned SP will be Freddy Peralta because of his opponent, the hapless Pirates. I prefer to take a chance on Ryne Nelson against the White Sox or Michael McGreevy against the Cubs (not expecting a huge upside here) or Chase Burns in his first start vs. the Yankees. At least he is at home and NY has been striking out fairly often lately. Framber Valdez and Kris Bubic are also fine players. Those are the SP options for me.
As far as offense is concerned, here are the “best offenses” to target based on opposing starters and team offense. SD is starting to get back into a slight groove, ARI is always good, and SEA has been the best performing offense over the last month. MIN and HOU have decent chances to put up a bunch of runs if the opposing pitcher has a bad day. SF actually has the 3rd highest Vegas implied team total today and is facing Quantrill and the Marlins bullpen. Beyond those offenses, I am only interested in the Dodgers in COL.
I will also be isolating some plays from the hot/humid weather games. While I like Rodon as a pivot off of the higher owned Crochet, I also like the CIN hitters, but as soon as Rodon is chased, he will be replaced by a righty, and Trevino, Joe, and Espinal will get pinch hit for. NYY will be highly owned, and I’d rather take a chance on Chase Burns excelling or at least limiting them via the strikeout.
It is also hot in New York, and the Mets have a good track record vs. Strider. The lefties especially should be looking to take advantage of the long ball with Nimmo, McNeil, and Soto all drawing interest as low owned one offs. ATL is similar to the Yankees. They should be high owned vs. Frankie Montas, but when we have no idea what to expect from the pitcher, I like to fade high owned bats on a large slate.
That’s enough writing. Dig into the plays below, but don’t be limited by the “best plays”. It’s why some of my choices below might cause you to scratch your head. I am looking for high ceilings that will be low owned.
New to DFS? You can start playing right now on Underdog and put our picks to the test. If you’re scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray, it helps support your Razzball team!
Garrett Crochet, SP: $11,000 – He is the top play on the slate and someone I think people should try to fit in. The chances are high for a 30 point outing.
Ryne Nelson, SP: $6,500 – I am expecting another outing like when he faced PIT and made it through 6 innings while limiting damage and securing a win. Nelson can easily get 20+ points tonight and be a “had to have it” piece. He could also get to 17 and be merely helpful.
Catcher – You are going to be tempted to splurge at the position. Yes, Raleigh and Smith are awesome options, but don’t break the bank on one of the most volatile positions. There will be plenty of cheap Cs to simply fit in. I like the lower cost options like Jeffers, Trevino, Torrens or Herrera.
Pavin Smith, 1B: $4,000 – The one knock on Smith is his K rate. It is too high, but he will have a decent chance to avoid Ks vs. the White Sox pitching staff. ARI should have another solid night, and Smith hits 3-5 in the order, especially with the injuries.
Brett Baty, 2B: $3,600 – A HR from Baty will produce a nice score at this price. It is hot, and Strider can serve up a couple with that fly ball rate and inconsistency after his surgery. Let’s take a risk at 2B for the big fly.
Manny Machado, 3B: $4,800 – There is nothing like a late night hammer on a low scoring full slate. The slate feels a little tame offensively tonight and Machado is having a great year. The Padres team is returning to health, and Machado is hitting as well as ever. This is a wonderful matchup for him and the Padres.
Willy Adames, SS: $3,800 – If rostering Giants tonight, I want to include the athletic and fair priced Adames. Nothing stands out except that he is a solid hitter that is underperforming this year. Hitters like that tend to have hot streaks to help their counting stats match their skills. Wait for it.
Luke Raley, OF: $3,500 – Raley is coming back from injury, and his offensive skills seem to be intact. He has a good price and a good matchup tonight and the SEA offense is tops in MLB right now. Invest.
Brandon Nimmo, OF: $4,300 – Nimmo has good success vs. Strider. He is going to be low owned and has been having a great hitting season, best of his career.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Nothing serious enough to worry about today.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Check out that SF implied Vegas team total. It is 3rd behind only the Dodgers and Yankees. I did not expect that. Hmmmm…..Devers really does add a lot to that offense that formerly was missing a bit of power.
How about JV?