DFS is about decision making. Before constructing your lineup on any given slate, it is best to assess what types of decisions you will need to make and then start working through those decisions. Let’s take tonight as an example.
When I look at this slate I see some obvious SP choices at the top and a couple sprinkled throughout the price range. As a result I have a small range of decisions to make when it comes to rostering a pitcher. We will come back to those decisions. That means that offense should be relatively wide open tonight and I really need to isolate which decisions are the most important.
It’s an 11 game slate and I know that stacks will win tournaments. My only decision point will be whether to roster a 5 man stack or a 4 man stack. If I go 5, I better find another 3 player stack or a 2 player stack with a one off.
Sometimes the weather can help us limit or narrow our choices. The COL game looks like it will be played in snowy conditions and I am thankful to take that off the table. I am comfortable with that decision because the odds of this game taking off in those weather conditions are pretty low. BAL, NYM, and BOS all have positive weather conditions that will help batted balls fly further. Interestingly, the teams playing in these games are also the teams I isolated when looking at opposing pitchers and overall lineup strength. This leads me to isolate BOS, BAL, NYM, and STL as offenses I want to target. Now, I just have to decide if four offenses are enough to allow me to construct good rosters based on price and positional eligibility. Let me check on that before adding any other decisions to the matrix.
BOS is an expensive lineup that is missing Alex Bregman, but still possesses enough value and positional flexibility to stack them. BAL can be cheaply rostered, but also has some spend up options and a lot of positional flexibility. NYM are a great option for filling all of the positions, but it will cost you. Finally, STL has too many lefties they will be counting on against an SP that dominated lefties. I am more comfortable taking them off my list. I now have three teams to choose between for my main stack. I must decide if I think these stacks have floor and upside and how I will address the smaller stacks.
I want more stacks to choose from because when lineups come out I want to have the salary flexibility and positional flexibility to fit everything in without making compromising one off selections. You can’t win with a 0 on an 11 game slate. HOU and ATL stand out as being in good offensive spots as well. While they have not been great hitting teams so far this year, perhaps using one of those teams as a 3-man or 4-man stack will work.
I have made most of my decisions on offense. I will continue to look for elite one off plays from teams like LAD or ATH who have the elite bats that I am looking for in decent offensive spots.
Now the hard work of roster construction begins and I can continually expand or contract my player pool based on what I am seeing as I construct rosters. Never be afraid to play the 6-9 spots in a stack. They can often produce “had to have it” scores at low ownership.
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Drew Rasmussen, SP: $8,300 – I really like the price on Drew. He is also playing against a home run hitting team and has some of the best barrel reducing numbers. His strikeout rate coupled with the K% of the NYY team project for some upside tonight and should leave me with enough salary to roster high priced stacks or one offs.
Ryan Gusto, SP: $7,200 – There is not a lot of information on Gusto, but he is cheap and playing against a depleted Padres team. His stuff+ shows a lot of potential for the RP and he has kept his high scores as he has increased his pitch count. Gusto is the only cheaper option that I am comfortable with tonight.
Drake Baldwin, C: $2,500 – This young catcher is producing some elite batted ball data at a basement level price. He cannot be ignored tonight and fits well as part of a 3 man ATL stack.
Pete Alonso, 1B: $5,700 – Alonso is likely too expensive unless he hits two HRs or NYM stacks totally go off. Still, he is a great spend up option who should see some really good pitches to hit tonight off of Mikolas. His hard hit data is totally elite early in the season.
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $4,500 – The 2B market is really heating up, and I think you have to score some points at this position tonight to be competitive. Albies offers the safest floor and fits well with those Braves stacks. He is fairly priced, but experiencing some good contact and has a matchup loaded with upside against Chris Paddack.
Mark Vientos, 3B: $3,800 – His price has made it all the way down below 4k before hitting his first HR. There is more to come, just enjoy the price.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $5,200 – The SS market is pretty dry for cheaper options and I always like to spend up here due to the plethora of elite options. Lindor is doing great and is in a great matchup and I think he outshines his high priced peers tonight.
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $5,500 – Alvarez has some of the best batted ball skills in MLB, but he is batting .224 and has only 1 HR. Players like Alvarez can get hot at any time (meaning the results start to follow the batted ball data) and his ownership will remain low unless he gets hot. Better to get in early, especially against a pitcher who gives up hard hits all over the place.
Jesse Winker, OF: $3,100 – Good luck finding anything to love at the bottom of the OF barrel. Winker was nearly a 15-15 player last year and the only difference between his 2024 and 2025 seasons are the results. He is hitting the ball harder and his K/BB numbers are still normalizing (which should be good for him going forward) so I see an opportunity if running Mets stacks (hint: I will be)
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Is anyone happy when it snows? Yeah, but not in April. That craziness in COL is going to be fun to watch and easy to stay away from. In other places in the US, temps are finally warming up and there will be plenty of opportunistic offenses on Friday night. These guys have been battling cold temps and will now get some relief and some helping winds. Take advantage.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Nothing of note today.
