Now, I am not here to completely make a crap storm on Dellin Betances one single bit, I just wanna put that out there right away.  I am a Yankees fan first, and fantasy guys on my team second.  I am simply here to make a cumulative prognosis on stats from last year and how they correlate to this year.  In this early part of the preseason, Betances has a manageable ADP of 94, or basically the 5th closer off the books.  There are a few factors that I am worried about as we get nearer to the season, and I just wanted to point them out. (As if you were buying me a beer, and we were sitting at a bar swapping war stories, and comparing notches on each others belts.)

I absolutely like Betances this year, but notice I didn’t say love. I like him as a friend, we can get ice cream and ride tandem bicycles down the street singing “Everything is Awesome”.  But are they awesome?  Well, that’s what I am here to preach to ya.  This is my job and you are my congregation.  First though, we will sing hymn number 116, which if you Google, is pretty fitting, and I am not going to lie, something I picked completely at random.  So stick around, grab a nice spot around my fantasy pulpit, as I am just going to inform and instruct instead of yell and give uselessness that you may have seen in those other Scientology sites. Speaking of other sites…You like Soccer?…You play Fantasy?…How about Fantasy Soccer?…Well, come check out Ralph and I every damn day at Razzball Soccer!

So, coming into this year, it is too obvious that Dellin has the job.  Also eerily similar is how his breakout year follows a similar relief giant also referred to me as the GOAT here on numerous occasions, Mariano Rivera.  I was young and watched Rivera grow up, hell, I was at his first start as a Yankee, yeah, I said start.  Back to topic, in 1996, Rivera was the bee’s knees.  His stats that year are all telling, and were apropos for him becoming a fantasy save all-timer.  I have included Mo’s last year in a comparative chart so we can better understand what I am talking about.

Name IP K’s Holds K/9 Multi-Inning Appearances
Rivera (1996) 107.2 130 26 10.9 42
Betances (2014) 90 135 27 13.5 36

Now, those stats are pretty close, as both played second fiddle to a more established closers John Wetteland and David Robertson.  They both played set-up roles and were the bullpen shutdown 8th inning guys.  The following year, Rivera becomes the closer, no problems. But this is where the problem for me comes in, the Yankees didn’t pay the 6th highest RP salary in MLB to a set-up guy in Andrew Miller in 1996.  I get why they did it, because building bullpens is the new thing in MLB, and what really worries me is that Dellin’s value this year is being based on him pitching 90 innings and having an abnormal K-rate. That’s what helped boost his value all last year.  Just for giggles I looked at the following year for Rivera as his innings (71), multi-innings pitched (13) and K/9 rate (8.5K’s/9) all dropped.  With so much value in the extra 35% of the workload at what point is there value in his being taken so high.  It’s more of a caveat to look out for then anything else.

Now all the Yankees media this spring training that I can hear is that Betances is the guy and that Girardi likes to have set roles out of the bullpen.  But as a fantasy questioner, why spend that much money at a position of question for Miller, for a just-in-case scenario?  Just for more reference, Miller makes more money setting up than 26 other closers.  So on draft day, take the advice of me and if you draft Dellin in the 8-9th rounds, do yourself a favor.  First reap the benefits of his crazy good K numbers, but harness in the expectations as his work load is going to be tempered.  Second, draft Miller maybe a round or two early as you want him for two reasons, a handcuff, and the fact that he’s no slouch in the periphs department.

 

  1. Nico says:
    (link)

    Wow. Droppin knowledge, and good knowledge at that! The Miller signing was the first thing that made me wonder about Betances’ job safety, but your points give me even greater pause. At this point, can we even rely on more than 5-10 guys to have their jobs at the end of the season. Shiz is cray these days! Gone are the times of Mariano Rivera and John Franco. So sad. Punt!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Nico: ahh the golden years of 15 years ago. Yea its going to be a shit show for sure. Maybe not as bad as last year but still a revolving door of poo.

  2. Clint says:
    (link)

    I don’t think Miller’s a threat. Didn’t he have opportunities to close before (wanna say with Boston?) and couldn’t handle it? Yankees overpay for everybody so the salary doesn’t surprise me. I agree Betances may have some yellow flags but I think he’s a fine hat to hang your closer hopes on.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Clint: Well I beg to differ, but I will extrapolate further every year saves on a team range from 52-54% of the teams victories, The Yankees are a 85 win team to play it safe. That’s 43 saves say. If Miller gets 10-12 which he is going to do, Betances only gets 30 saves in the knocked down innings he is going to pitch. Miller also only has 2 BS in his career, I repeat 2 in his whole career, that includes blow holds. Yankees overpay when there is a need what happened on Moncada?

  3. Hawk says:
    (link)

    The safe bet in any closer competition is on the right hander. Invariably, managers want lefties for matchup purposes. It’s not a given but that’s how I’d bet.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Hawk: oh i tend to agree but game situations in baseball as a metric are shifting to the match-up rather than RH/LH. Also there. are more RH pitchers in baseball so the numbers are skewed in their favor.

  4. Sky

    Sky says:
    (link)

    Daps Smokey. Daps.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Sky: Wurd, you say butter I say parkay

  5. Mike says:
    (link)

    I think Miller could get a dozen saves which is why I will pass on Betances

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Mike: I am not saying pass on Betances, but if you have one why not the other if it’s not a straight cuff and a drain on your roster

  6. CL says:
    (link)

    You assume the Yanks are thrifty. I do not believe this to be the case, hence Miller.

    Luckily, I’ve owned Betances for a year or two in a Dynasty league, but we also count holds. This guy provides value to any team though, IMO. I’d own him everywhere in a second, and just set him and forget him.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @CL: This isn’t papa George at the helm any more and don’t kid yourself the Yanks are spend thrifts for the next 2 years. I totally agree that he is rosterable in every single format just based on the fact that he will get you 90 K’s in 70 innings. Just dont expect 90 innings and 130 K’s again is what my piint is and you would do your self a service by rostering Miller.

  7. Great White North says:
    (link)

    Smokey. Only you can………….tell me if you have any openings in a keeper league.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Great White North: I have a dynasty auction league if that interests ya.

      • Great White North says:
        (link)

        @Smokey:Interested

  8. Jb says:
    (link)

    Could get Parnell for 8$. Most closers go for twice that and more for the studs. Is this a chance worth taking to get cheap saves??

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Jb: Def, I like Bobby’s chances to get more saves then anyone in the Mets pen

  9. sport says:
    (link)

    Smokey your stuff is always helpful for my teams. Great read. I completely understood your intentions of the article.

    Do you update your closer rankings on the rankings page with news on closer changes or with injuries? Or do we wait for your write ups each time?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @sport: Update coming next week usually done every 2nd week

  10. Bye Felicia says:
    (link)

    Drafting a handcuff defies my belief in SAGNOF

  11. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
    (link)

    if we own all players for CLE/CIN/NYY and play 7 RP per day, which of these are best for last 2 slots? BB/IP/losses/holds/ K to BB/ Relief wins/relief losses/ net saves and holds as extra categories.

    d.carpenter/warren/wilson/atchison/scrabble/j.diaz?

  12. James says:
    (link)

    How often is the closer post update? r where ca I check t latest closer ranking before I do a draft? Thanks

  13. James says:
    (link)

    How often is the closer post update? r where can I check the latest closer ranking before I do a draft? Thanks

Comments are closed.