It’s once again Padres week here at the content hub of Jay, and by week I mean epoch. And while I’m actually trying to figure out what a hub of content is and what it would actually look like (your mom?), I must fight the urge to world-build and begin to pontificate on one Blake Snell. Not to be confused with Ian, something I’m sure I’ll do at some point and time, Blake has had quite the year of mediocrity after piecing together a pretty stellar to above-average track record the previous five seasons. 2018 remains his peak year thus far, when just four seasons ago he was able to grab a Cy Young, sustaining a 1.89 ERA, 2.95 FIP with 21 Wins. Now sporting a 5.29 ERA with the Padres, one has to wonder what exactly is going on and why does it have to happen to the Padres? That’s me, I’m that guy wondering. And, you know, for the sake of that sweet sweet SEO, I hope you are too…
| Year | ERA | K/BB | BABIP | HR/FB | GB% | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 4.29 | 3.68 | .343 | 15.4 | 39.0 | 3.32 |
| 2020 | 3.24 | 3.50 | .286 | 29.4 | 49.2 | 4.35 |
| 2021 | 5.29 | 2.25 | .329 | 19.2 | 43.8 | 4.26 |
| Career | 3.46 | 2.71 | .297 | 12.7 | 42.6 | 3.59 |
So, it’s kinda awkward, but yes, Blake Snell has recently been placed on the injury list due to an illness. While I can’t fathom this issue affecting his pitching (stomach issues, and he’s already been confirmed testing negative for Covid-19), it should be noted here up front just so that you know that I know that we know he’s injured. It’s of course always important to consider an injury, as benign as it might seem, while trying to figure out what’s going on, but based on reports and the fact that my stomach is always hungry, I don’t see this lasting more than 10 days.
The illness is certainly untimely, as Snell was just coming off pitching five straight shut-out innings against the Dodgers, but red flags continue to worry with a career-high 13.2% walk rate along with a 41.5% hard-hit ball percentage. And while five shut-out innings is good, Snell continues having issues pitching late into games, directly correlated to his poor efficiency. And sure, that’s nothing new, but it serves to point out that no matter what Snell has done in the past in terms of success will always be handicapped. Discounting a whole-sale change, it’d be weird not to think that he’ll be the same pitcher, at least in that regard, no matter what.
And that’s okay. While I’d love to sell Snell on the fact that he might return to the good ole days, we’re still talking roughly 100 starts ago, and that’s a fair sample size to see who he is now is not who he was then. Yes, deep analyzations are what you come here for, no doubt. But it’s a caveat I want to hammer down, Blake Snell is not the great pitcher he once was, but that certainly does not mean he’s useless.
So yes, there are valid reasons on the idea of moving on, but I am here to make the argument that instead of giving up, perhaps adjust your expectations, and perhaps adjust your strategy as well. Case in point, take a look at this.
| Year | ERA | K/9 | BABIP | HR/9 | K/BB | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 13.14 | .250 | 0.72 | 3.44 | 2.55 |
| Away | 10.36 | 10.99 | .407 | 2.20 | 1.46 | 6.51 |
Yikes. The split is pretty obvious and serves as the perfect example of why you should hold onto Snell, but not necessarily start him every time. It’s pretty clear that when he pitches in PetCo, he decidedly cosplays as not just Cy Young Blake Snell, but Cy Young Cy Young. Makes total sense. Look, I know, it’s not easy to be a Blake Snell owner, but it can be… based on the trends thus far. And while it probably shouldn’t take an entire post to deduce that a pitcher throws better in PetCo park, in this case, the absurd split really drives home the point doubley. Tripley even! (Beautiful Italian city on the coast, or so I hear.) So yeah, there’s some cost here too, Snell is currently injured, though doesn’t seem seriously so, but he’s also a once solid pitcher that may not be so anymore. But there’s amazing value if you follow his splits, and I’ll tell you what:
“Half of 2018 Blake Snell” instead of “totally not 2018 Blake Snell” don’t seem so bad. But what can I say, I’m a Padres fan, I always look at the brighter side of life.
Lol, someone pass me my antidepressants…
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell. You can follow him on Twitter @jaywrong.
