The Royals are fun, no gimmick team to watch. They aren’t really mashers, and they aren’t really a base-to-base team. They are a cross of both, and masters of none kinda thing. With the recent injury to Cain, who has been nursing a wrist injury, Jarrod Dyson has found himself a regular seat at the big boy table. He always had the ability to steal bases, and by what we are witnessing as of late, it is that if given the opportunity for regular at-bats those SB numbers could blossom into something actually useful. Over the last 30 days, he has more at-bats than any other 30-day span this year and the SB tally is a complete reflection of it. He had 13 steals in the first half in 172 plate appearances, and in the second half, with more starts, he has 12 in 95, The falloff in production, who could expect a lot from Paulo Orlando and the injury to Cain, seem to have cemented him in the top of the lineup for at least the next few games. If nothing else, he is a pinch-run threat and with 25 total steals to date, could be an asset for a spot play down the stretch as we should be maximizing every angle or roster spot possible. Available in 94% of RCL leagues and currently not just rewarding with steals, as he has 4 runs and 3 RBI’s over his last seven. Not a true one-trick pony, sorta like the Royals. Let’s see what else is on the get down with the Saves/Steals Ain’t Got No Face department…
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Closer Report, Week 22: Wade Back To Where You Came From
September 3, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 20 Commentsby: Smokey
So the inevitable return of Wade Davis came, and just like we expected in typical awful luck scenario, he came into the game for the save. Which any Kelvin owner was dreading, clutching their fists, and shaking it widely. “Curses” they screamed. I have to admit, I didn’t think that the first day off the disabled list he’s be thrown right into the fray. He experienced two set-backs and wasn’t really his normal dominant self in the minor rehab appearances that I noticed. I get that a guy who has the previous experience and job should get the job, but the Royals were cruising along with Herrera in the big boy chair. In fact, he was darn near flawless minus one hiccup, garnering 7 straight saves and 9 appearances in 15 with a clean no-hit inning. I mean, I am no manager, hell I am an admitted couch potato… But I do know closers and that my friends is getting it done. The Royals are still in the thick of the playoff hunt and I think the worst thing to do for them is to change the end game. Davis is going to be dominant in the closer role or set-up role, and he has the goods to be great at either. Now, it may take one more ineffective appearance from him to show it, but I think Herrera is still very much in the foray for save chances in KC.
Please, blog, may I have some more?He was well hyped in advance of his final promotion, so much so that Prospector Ralph’s pleated khakis looked like a circus tent. To his benefit, Trea Turner deserved the hype in preseason, he had the youthful vigor and the stats to back it up. Alas, he wasn’t ever promoted and we played the waiting game while cursing the very existence of Danny Espinosa. Then he got promoted and it was for a two game stint, sadness for all parties involved. So the waiting continued, and what we were so patiently awaiting for has been a 39-game stretch by the youngin that has him slashing .341/.366/.548, good for .914 OPS. To me, this is going to be one of the lads next year that is completely over-drafted and at the same time under-drafted, but next year is next year. What we want from him is everyday line-up ability and to continue to be the steal every fourth time on base and 7-over-the-last-15 type of hitter. That is impressive in itself, now take the fact that he is in a stacked RBI producing line-up and over the last 30 games or so could be a top 2-3 option at his position adding his speed into the equation. His 26 runs scored over the last 30 games played trails only Bryant, Blackmon, Dahl and Brian Dozier. He still needs to learn how to take a walk, but even at less then 3%, his OBP is sexy. I can keep spewing details that you can just easily look up yourself, but it’s fun to point out how good someone is now and will be next year. So SAGNOF away, and if by some oddity of the world he is available, go say hi and invite him on your roster. Be weary that rosters expand midweek and some situations will change for some teams out of the race…
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report: Hector Holding Down Philly
August 27, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 24 Commentsby: Smokey
If history teaches us anything about fantasy baseball, it’s that the proof is in the pudding. If history actually teaches us anything, it’s that Brad Pitt killed Hektor. See what I did there, I pulled the ole okie doke. It’s a favorable trick passed down through the years of dudes who vape and like to talk about how a dime won’t even buy a nickle anymore. Those first few sentences are brought to you by filth and non-sense, because life isn’t fitting if there isn’t filthy or nonsensical. So onto Holds, which about six actual readers, and one of the female variety still get all excited about. The title says it all this week for the lede, Hector Neris has been carried in most formats all year because he brings some fantasy goodness to the table. As a handcuff, there’s no way he can do it for the whole year, even with Jeanmar, or the fact that he has sexy enough reliever numbers, 11-plus K-rate, under 3 ERA. I could go on and on and bore the crap out of you, but let’s just put it this way: he has 27 Holds behind a closer that has 34 saves for a surprise bullpen asset in the Phillies. So in the last two weeks with the Phil’s getting there fair share of victories he has been an augmenter to your hold total notching a league high 5 holds. He is a key cog down the stretch for not only the Phils , but for your fantasy team regardless of format. So go take a look, just in case the late year shuffle has thrown him by the wayside. After you do that follow the bottom for some Holds, set-up and other relief goodies…
Please, blog, may I have some more?I love this time of the year, the opportunities for fleeting teams to make a splash fantasy wise gets really fun. Guys pop up here there and everywheres. Young guys looking to plant the next year seed in their clubs minds is a great thing for all of us. This week, we focus on the go-go Brewers. Yeah… them. My apologies to the 50’s White Sox, but there wasn’t fantasy back then or I would be waxing poetic about Hall of Famer Luis Aparicio. Alas, a different era and a completely different town. Same like for beer, which automatically makes me a fan of either. So we shine the LED spotlight this week on Keon Broxton. The evictor of everything Niewenhuis. Over the past 14 days of games, he is flashing an OBP of .447, with 8 steals and an almost crazy 19% BB rate. Those are all things we look at from a straight SAGNOF contributor, but throw in the .320 batting average and a run every 6.5 plate appearances and he is a swoon for the stretch run of cheapie SB’s. Best part is he has only gotten two games off this month, minus the PH appearances for one quality AB in the stat column. Ownership is the key here, and he is being carried in just over 16% of ESPN RCL leagues, That, my friends, is probably a tad low for the ones surfing for pre-September goodies. The Brewers are most likely going to give him the go for the final 40 games, which should net him 130-140 at bats. So go use those stimulating numbers I gave above and extrapolate those over those games. If all stays the same, he should get you 10-12 Sb’s and 15-18 runs. Good for a regular team not a team cruising 20 games under .500. Lets see what else is going down in the world of cheap SAGNOF-dom…
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Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report, Week 20: Dyson’s Tender With Saves
August 20, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 16 Commentsby: Smokey
I wish that he wasn’t… and I wish I could parse my words a little better for a good pun’s sake, but the fact is in the stats. Sam Dyson is allowing more baserunners, more baserunners to get on via the walk, and a higher slugging percentage in the second half of the year. Add in the fact that batting average against and K-rate are down since 30 days ago, its never a good sign for someone to be all cozy and buy long-term property in the town of closerville. Listen, he already wasn’t elite in the K-rate department, but to be hovering in the mid 5’s for the past 20 appearances is just bad. From what I am noticing, his velocity has leveled out, but he isn’t using his arsenal as much or as frequent, relying mostly on his sinker and moving away from his ancillary fastball and slider. Not all awful things in the immediate world in the result-driven world of fantasy, but troubling nonetheless. When a reliever doesn’t trust or use his stuff in a way that was once successful, it shows a lack of confidence in it. The guests knocking at the door have been a phenomenal swoon for almost all fantasy leagues with the likes of Diekman, Barnette (who has been sneaky great), Bush and Kela. The saves that have been divided up show that Bush and Diekman look like the guys to watch most for in a change. So with about a month of useful fantasy to go, now is not the time for a 20-save guy to spin his wheels… grab the cuff in advance and cover yourself like it was your Linus blanket or a just in case of emergency fantasy glass thingy.
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Please, blog, may I have some more? SAGNOF Report: Jose’s On A Vacation 90 Feet Away
August 15, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers, Steals | 15 Commentsby: Smokey
Come on in and talk it over. So many the Erie warriors would want to say, but I think the platoon is very much over. So Jose Ramirez has embedded himself in the land where former Chisenhall’s roamed. Who, by happenstance, is playing here, there, and most left of nowhere… which is left field. Jose is getting all the good spot-stuff you need for a guy to be rostered, and I am not just referencing the SAGNOF love. He is hitting .431 over the last 15 games with 10 RBI’s 15 runs scored, 4 home runs, and the salt on the rim of the margarita glass is 6 steals. If you wanna lump in the fact that he is eligible in most formats at four positions… This is Hernan part deux the redux of multi-eligible position players with Latino descent showing out. He is currently, over the last 15 games, in the top-2 of all players in the ESPN database. Only Mr. Blackmon can hold sway over him. Now the ownership has spiked and he is currently in the 80’s, but hey, some leagues are dumb and slow, so just in case, he is there, which he shouldn’t be (just check). Worse comes to worse, he makes for an interesting guy to trade for down the stretch because his name isn’t sexy and could probably be involved with a bigger name with some draw. SAGNOF report is incoming with some players to look at and some saves ups and downs from the three days that you missed me so…
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report: Everyone Do The Bullpen Shuffle
August 13, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 12 Commentsby: Smokey
The holds leaderboard has been basically demolished as guys have switched roles. Three out of the top-10 holds guys (Bettances, Herrera, and Watson) currently are holding down the closer roles for their respective teams. Add in two more from the top-20 (Andrew Miller and Ken Giles) and you can see that 20% of the entire holds leaders are double dipping in stats. Not always a bad thing, but when you are counting on one stat from a guy and then it switches to another, it detracts from the previous. Have no fear, because the bullpen aficionado is here to steer you through the muck and mire that is the bullpen shuffle. So for this week, we are going to look at guys who aren’t in a closing role. I have taken current closers out of the equation for the chart, because this is a holds piece and we don’t want “their kind” infiltrating the holds stuff. So be active on the waiver wire as we come down to the end of the season, there should be no commitment in the relief game.
Please, blog, may I have some more? SAGNOF Report: Hindsight is Always 20/20
August 8, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers, Steals | 8 Commentsby: Smokey
I remember years ago the gold standard for fantasy goodness was getting 20 home runs and 20 steals. That trend is unfortunately not in our favor anymore. As I have waxed poetic before about the growing trend of the stolen bases laying by the roadside and becoming less of an accumulated stat across baseball… This year, we roughly have 50 games to go and we have one player that has just accomplished the feet, and if someone would have guessed that it would have been Wil Myers in preseason, I would have spit out my grape Fanta. With other players on pace to eclipse this mark, the number is still trending in a bad way. In the last six years, the number was the highest in 2011 with 12 players making the 20/20 barrier. Since then, it has reduced every year, 9 in 2012, 8 in 2013, 5 in 2014 and 4 just last year. With Myers, there is some hope that a few other players get there, but the numbers are not in the stats favor to be opposite of what they once were, and there is no way that I can see it getting up to double digits again. This tells me a few things about rostering SB guys, first, the elite are more coveted. Players like Jose Altuve to me should be a top-5 player next year because he basically wins you, or at least is the reason that you win two categories. Second thing is that grabbing players that are steal-only guys is probably not worth the chase, and the punt of the category is most likely the best strategy. But hell, what do I know, I have only been here since forever and a day.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report, Week 18: Miller Ain’t Buffaloing Cody
August 7, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 23 Commentsby: Smokey
The price that was paid, and the results that led him up to the trade had everyone believing that Andrew Miller would trump the incumbent Cody Allen in Cleveland. Through two-pitched games, he has seen one save opportunity in the 6-7th inning, and the other was in a losing effort. Now, I am not reading the tea leaves here, but after just two appearances and five games overall, I think Cody is not a droppable player in any format, saves holds or NSVH. I mentioned it out loud to myself after the trade was completed, and also to Prospector Ralph. With 55 games to play and save chances in 52 percent of games won… so that would leave 14 or so chances for the Indians and Miller to retain value. And don’t get it twisted, he still has a ton of value with a ridiculous K-rate over 16, and the Indians are still a first place squad. Just everyone that seems to matter has struggled with the Twins. It’s crazy that they are 20-plus games under .500. So for the Allen owners, hold firm, like Gi-Joe style grip type stuff. Miller owners, you have most likely owned him all year, so your peripherals aren’t going to be flawed because of him. As far as saves go, I think it could go 70/30 the rest of the way and be a situational thing on occasion. Let’s look at the plethora of changes that are basically pillaging the relief ranks around baseball…
Please, blog, may I have some more?The Brewers should be in sell mode, or is that should have been in sell mode? Well, I guess it’s not either here nor there. The unheraldness (totally a word) of the infielders as of late is becoming a fantasy monsoon. The play of and the eligibility of Hernan Perez of late is becoming quite the fantasy add. He qualifies at both the third sack, which isn’t something you pay an extra 50 cents for at the county fair to see, and as an outfielder in most formats. Over his last 15 games, he has more HR, RBIs, and runs than the top-3 corners in baseball. Now you add the SAGNOF goodness and it makes me shake my head at the minuscule 23% ownership in ESPN leagues. Someone is paying attention on the ownership tip, but he deserves a ton more accolades from the millions and millions of fantasy ballers who play this game. His at-bats aren’t going to slow down as Will Middlebrooks isn’t going to walk in and go all hot schmotato. The added bonus for him are players in dynasty league formats, as he is only 25, should be taking even further notice on him as he is almost qualifying for SS, and has a few starts at 2B. So I am grabbing my lucky dice and saying that he can’t continue to put be a top-10 fantasy player (like he has just done over the past 15) over the next 30 days, but if he can possibly do top-10 fantasy 3B over that time, he is a waiver wire darling that can carry you to where flags fly forever. Let’s see what else is going down with steals and saves for the week…
Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report, Week 17: The Calm Before The Deadline
July 30, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 22 Commentsby: Smokey
I was going to just delay this post due to inclement weather, but Grey’s super Doppler 5001, which is also a giant B.S. detector, wouldn’t let me. So here we sit, some 48 hours before the list that you are about to see means about as much as single-ply toilet paper… Really, what cheap s.o.b. concocted this idea of pinching pennies? I mean everyone has had a run-in with it at some point. Awful. It’s part of the reason I have a salt-water bidet in all three outhouses at the Smokey compound. So back to the deadline… closer gossip teams are lining up other contenders closers in such a bullish market, namely the rumors surrounding Mark Melancon. The market and teams that need reliable relievers, let alone closers, is the Nationals, Indians, Rangers and Giants. It is just the land of confusion and there is not enough LOOGY’S to go around. I will touch on who I can see where after the bump to prolong the suspense, but the teams I just mentioned are teams to monitor on the opposite end of closers, because if the big names start rolling, all but Cody Allen looks to be out of a job. Here’s what I can see going down by the deadline in the bullpen game, plus some rankings and next in line stuff. Plus, Razzball Soccer has started pumping out quality, so go over and check it and join the official game…
Please, blog, may I have some more?