by: The Itch
Chicago White Sox In 37 at bats this spring, Oscar Colas has struck out once and walked once. He’s hitting .324 and slugging .514 with two home runs. Even making plays in centerfield. Feels like he’s already made the team. Bryan Ramos has looked just about ready (.368/.429/.526 in 19 at bats), but Yoan Moncada […]
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Baltimore Orioles
Kyle Stowers could open the season at DH after a 107 wRC+ in 34 major league games last season and a 130 wRC+ in 95 games at Triple-A. He might not be good enough to hold off the next wave of young Orioles, but there’s plenty of playing time on offer in 2023 if he performs. He’s hitting .269 with seven strikeouts, five walks, and zero home runs. That’s probably good enough for him to get the gig.
Now let’s talk about the next wave of young Orioles.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
Gabriel Moreno is staking his claim behind the plate with two home runs already this spring. I think he’s safe to take in the one-two catcher fringe. I’d prefer him to Keibert Ruiz, for example.
Scott McGough is the new crime dog as far I’m concerned, though I guess that reference is pretty old these days. “Scruff McGruff, Chicago Illinois, 60652!” Manager Torey Lovullo says they’re “gonna be fluid in that area,” which sounds like a trip to the doctor and means nothing, but I think McGough is gonna be the closer, if anyone’s gonna be the closer.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Chicago Cubs
Hayden Wesneski leads us off in his quest to take home the last rotation spot. He’s yet to allow a run in 4.2 innings this spring after posting a 2.18 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 33 innings for the Cubbies last year. Javier Assad and Adrian Sampson have been effective in their regular season chances, too, but Assad could go back to Triple-A, and Sampson could go to the bullpen. Either could be fine in the rotation, but neither has a great case to block an emerging arm like Wesneski.
Third base is a busy spot this spring. Edwin Rios was playing a lot with Patrick Wisdom on the shelf due to lingering soreness in the groin, but Wisdom returned to the lineup Monday. While he feels like the frontrunner given his playing time the past couple seasons, Wisdom is arbitration eligible next year and could command a sum that’s not commensurate with his on-field contributions, given the slipshod nature of the process and the number of home runs he hits.
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Atlanta
RHP Kyle Wright is dealing with arm soreness, which might open a window for Bryce Elder, Jared Shuster, Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka. Have to imagine Soroka will get pushed to the front of the line if he ever gets 100 percent healthy and finds his rhythm, but for now, Allard is pitching well in spring to at least keep himself in the conversation. For anyone seeking upside from this opportunity, Shuster makes for an interesting play. A first-round pick in 2020, he’s the club’s number one prospect by a long ways and finished up last year with 48.2 innings in Triple-A.
Please, blog, may I have some more?76. Pirates 2B Termarr Johnson | 18 | A | 2025
A double-plus hit tool leads the way for Termarr Johnson, a 5’7” 175 lb left-handed hitter who calls Jose Ramirez to mind on a quick visual evaluation. The organization will be thrilled if Johnson follows a similar path, grinding his way up the chain before growing into power at the highest level. He’s off to a great start, slashing .275/.396/.450 with one home run and four stolen bases in 14 Low-A games. He also walked 18.9 percent of the time. Scouts have hung a lot of superlatives on Termarr. Some called him the best high school hitter they’ve ever seen. It’s a high bar, but I’m not going to bet against him.
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List season is tricky for me. I always forget somebody for reasons that remain mysterious to me. This year, it was Josh Jung. Sorry about that, Josh and the Jungs. I’ll clean it up in post, by which I mean I plan to collate the hundred in a long scroll here near the end of spring training, tweaking the sequence as the new information suggests. Jung would be 19th or 20th or 21st at the moment among Neto and Tiedemann. All three could move the needle in a significant way this spring. I’m sure it’s just the nature of my work and focus, but the minor leagues look absolutely loaded to me. There’s maybe four guys in my top 25 who won’t see the majors this season (Wood, Holliday, Jones, PCA). We had a great rookie class last year, and it’s natural to expect an ebb from that flow, but after my lap around the league, 2023 feels to me like a pandemic-slash-service-time backlog is still seething at the edges, bubbling over early before rushing into our lineups come summer.
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Here’s a link to the Top 25.
That top 25 blends in pretty well with what you’ll see elsewhere, and so this group, mostly, but from here forward, my lists tend to be tilted toward near-term fantasy functionality, for what it’s Wuertz.
I value the grind of the climb. Each level brings new separators, so guys like Maikel Garcia and Joey Ortiz have shown more, in my opinion, than a guy like Jackson Merrill. Nothing against Merrill or anyone in the lower minors. They’ll have their day. I just don’t see much value in jumping headlong on to Tom Smykowksi’s Conclusions Mat when we’ve got so many great prospects on the cusp who’ve earned their keep. If I get three seasons of useful stats out of a player before a higher-ranked teeny-bopper even gets started, that matters to me. I suppose you could cut it up differently for a rebuilding project, but I wouldn’t change much.
26. Guardians RHP Tanner Bibee | 24 | AA | 2023
Bibee’s currently my favorite of Cleveland’s pitching prospects for dynasty purposes in terms of cost v. value. That’s probably changing as I type, but for now it’s still cheap enough to at least ask about Bibee in your leagues. He’s coming off 73.2 innings in Double-A with a 0.88 WHIP. He allowed just four home runs there and wound up with a 1.83 ERA. He’s good enough to the naked eye that I think he’ll make waves this spring. His 122.2 innings pitched last year sets him up perfectly to step in whenever the Guardians need help. At 6’2” 205 lb, Bibee can sit comfortably in the mid-90’s deep into games and has that Cleveland specialty skill of commanding his off-speed pitches. In case you can’t tell from the blurb, I want him everywhere I can get him. You could more or less say that for every Cleveland pitcher, which I try to remind myself any time I’m making moves or building lists.
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1. Cardinals OF OF Jordan Walker | 20 | AA | 2023
At 6’5” 220 lbs with 80-grade power, plus athleticism and easy speed, Walker belongs to a rare class. No offense to Corbin Carroll or Gunnar Henderson, I’m just slightly more confident Walker will be an impact fantasy player. Check out Grey’s Jordan Walker, 2023 Fantasy Outlook for more. Fun videos in there. Really drives home how easy it can look for Walker when he’s on his game.
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Money talks, and the Rangers have had a lot to say these past two winters. The timing was connected to their new stadium but nonetheless ideal for a system stocked with ready-soon contributors.
Format: Position Player | Age on 4/1/23 | Highest Level Played | ETA
1. 3B Josh Jung | 25 | MLB | 2022
Happy birthday week to Josh, who turned 25 on February 12. Fantasy baseballers (Grey’s mom’s term) probably shouldn’t penalize players on their way back from injury, but Jung feels underrated in the wake of an abbreviated 2022. When Jung had surgery for a torn labrum around this time last year, I expected him to miss the whole season, so getting 49 games across two levels feels like a win. Jung was a shadow of his 2021 self that slashed .348/.436/.652 for 35 games in Triple-A. The difference was most notable in his plate skills. His walk rate dropped from 11.5 percent to 3.8 percent and his strikeout rate spiked from 17.2 to 28.3 percent. Shoulder injuries can permanently lower ceilings and even ruin careers, but Jung has the talent to overcome it. He’s a target for me in the CBS AL Only auction tomorrow night.
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Few teams are as adept at navigating the social media markets of our modern age. Invisible threads connect everything in the baseball world, and while it’s possible the Mariners would be able to trade Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo for a big prize without the power of their brand, it certainly helps that nobody’s better at hyping their own than Seattle. The Yankees are great, too, and some of the fan bases do a lot of lifting for their organizations, but whenever Seattle isn’t posting a workout video or highlight reel, they’re handing their social media feeds over to their prospects to flash their personalities and connect to the fans. For years, the Yankees were able to spin their internal prospect praise to public-facing outlets and then flip almost all of these youngsters for big league pieces.
When Seattle traded for Luis Castillo last year, the narrative was focused on how big a haul the Reds received. Some of that is just the moneyball-ization of the modern baseball fan, but a large portion is down to the power of marketing. No offense to Marte, a power hitter who slugged .462 in High-A, or Arroyo, a shortstop who hit .227 with a 28.4 percent strikeout in Low A, but the idea that these two plus reliever Andrew Moore and pitcher Levi Stoudt represent a huge haul in exchange for an ace-level starter is absurd to me. Castillo posted a 2.99 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 150.1 innings last year and then signed a team-comfortable contract at $108 million through 2027 with a 180-inning vesting option for 2028. This will cover his age 31, 32, 33, 34, and age 35 seasons. If he’s healthy and good enough to throw 180 innings at 35, he’ll be a bargain at $20 million as a 36-year-old. Or he’ll be off the payoff before the tough seasons start. I guess it’s not fair to compare the under-contract Castillo to the trade return he brought as a soon-to-be free agent, but I have to think everyone who said the Reds did great in this trade would feel a little differently if he’d been traded with five-plus seasons of affordable team control. Feels to me like a master-class from Jerry Dipoto, sending far-away prospects to pull a great pitcher out of a numbers-inflating environment and then signing him to a long-term contract before his statistics better reflected his pitching-friendly new home.
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Around this point in the draft, you should probably be checking the free agent pool. You never know who can slide through the cracks created by transaction freezes, roster limitations, football season and the general malaise that sometimes accompanies late-summer rotisserie baseball.
16. Mariners SS Cole Young | 19 | A | 2025
Cole Young looks like the early win of last summer’s draft. He wasn’t especially late at 21st overall, but he might go inside the top ten if the draft happened tomorrow. A 6’0” 180 lb left-handed hitter, Young features plus bat-to-ball skills and an all-fields approach that plays beyond his years. He graduated the complex league in seven games and got even better in Low A, slashing .385/.422/.538 with two home runs and a stolen base in ten games. In the cold light of dawn between publications, this ranking feels a little low.
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