Analytics Anonymous: Who Am I?

Welcome back for another exciting edition of Analytics Anonymous.  For this meeting, we’re going to do something a little different.  It’s Fantasy Baseball TRIVIA NIGHT!

That’s right, we’re going to combine two beloved activities into this action-packed meeting – bar-room trivia and baseball analytics.

Your mission, if you choose to accept it (and since you’re here, I assume you do…), is to NAME THAT PLAYER.  Read through the analytical clues and enter your guess below.  You have until Monday night to enter your player.  For those who make the correct guess, you’ll be entered into a drawing to win something cool from Grey’s personal stash.  I’ll announce the winner on Tuesday morning.

• Use your knowledge of baseball analytics only. No Google, Alexa, Echo, Fangraphs, Wiki, ChatGBT, etc. are allowed.  You are on the honor system here but…NO CHEATING!
• Data reflects the end of Week 8 (May 19).
• Enter your answers in the Comments below.

That’s it.  See, real easy.  Let’s have some fun!

A few months ago, I did an article on the topic of Power.  I won’t regurgitate it here, but for the most part I will refer to the “elite” criteria I typically use for certain batter analytics.  If you want to get a full background, you can go back and read that here: Power Up.

Now that we’re on the same page, we’re ready to get started.  Grab your snacks and take a seat.  We’re about to start the contest.

REMEMBER, NO CHEATING!

Trimming the Field

Although some may disagree, I’m not a madman.  I’m not going to make you guess amongst all batters across MLB.  In fact, I’ll give you plenty of hints.  The first hint:  It’s not new Padres INF, Luis Arraez.  He’s interesting in a lot of other ways, but Power – not so much.

I’ll trim the field even further.  The player we’re looking for is:

• One of 30 with > 200 PA in 2024
• One of 41 with > 650 PA in 2023
• One of 59 with > 600 PA in 2022

Bottom line:  This player has been a lineup staple over the past three seasons. This first clue should help a lot.

NOTE: Keep that first number in mind (30 players > 200 PA in 2024).  This is the base number we’ll be referring to as we sort through the power analytics.

HR/PA

“Home Runs per Plate Appearance” is not an often used analytic but a logical one to start analyzing power.  For HR/PA, we’re simply taking a measure of how many HRs are being hit each time a batter steps up to the plate.  HR/PA is not a mainstream analytic, you’re not likely to find experts telling you what an average vs. elite HR/PA rate is.  That’s ok, we don’t need experts.  Remember, Analytics Anonymous is a support group.

For this trivia event, I set the HR/PA bar at 3.50%.  Here is the breakdown:

• 18 of the 30 players with > 200 PA in 2024 surpass that bar
• 10 of those 30 surpassed that bar in 2023
• 12 of those 30 surpassed that bar in 2022
• Eight (8) passed that bar in ALL THREE SEASONS

Our guy?  You guessed it – he IS one of the eight (8).

EV

“Exit Velocity” is a relatively new “Statcast” metric.  The increased speed at which the baseball comes off the bat has a direct correlation to favorable outcomes for a batter – no matter if the ball is a ground ball, line drive or fly ball.  The league-wide average EV in 2023 was 89 mph and top batters tend to average above 90 mph.

For trivia night, I set the threshold for an “elite” EV at 92 mph.

• Seven (7) of the 30 players currently with > 200 PA in 2024 are considered elite

Our guy IS NOT one of those seven (7) with elite EV.

LA

“Launch Angle” is another of the Statcast metrics used in baseball to describe the vertical angle of the baseball when it leaves the bat.  The four widely used trajectories to describe batted balls include, Groundball (less than 10 degrees), Line Drive (between 10-25 degrees), Flyball (between 25-50 degrees) and Pop-up (greater than 50 degrees).

The league-wide average LA in 2023 was 12.8 degrees.  There’s no magic LA number that translates directly to a HR, but we can estimate a range that makes a HR more likely.  For analysis sake, I tend to use a player’s average LA of greater than 15 degrees.

Why 15 degrees?  I came upon this wonderful figure last year and dusted it off for this discussion.  I really think you’ll like it too.

This figure illustrates how EV and LA work together to identify what’s called the “Barrel Zone” that leads to a higher probability of a favorable outcome (i.e., HR).  As you can see in this figure, the “Barrel Zone” generally correlates with the Line Drive and Flyball trajectories discussed above.  Looking at 2023 data, I found the absolute top average LA is greater than 25 degrees, but two-thirds of the top HR hitters were above 15 degrees.

We’ll go with 15 degrees then.

• 10 of the 30 currently have a LA > 15 degrees
• All 10 are also part of the 18 with HR/PA > 3.5%

Therefore, our guy IS one of the 10.

Barrel%

Speaking of barrels, it is the term used to define a well-struck ball where the combination of EV and LA generally leads to a minimum 0.500 BA and 1.500 SLG.  The “Barrel Rate” is simply the number of barrels divided by the number of batted balls.

The league-wide average Barrel% in 2023 was 8.1% and top batters tend to average above 12%.

That number works for me too…12% it is.

• Nine (9) of the 30 currently have a Barrel% > 12%
• Six (6) of the nine (9) are also “elite” in either EV or LA

  Our guy IS one of the nine (9) with elite Barrel%.

He is ALSO one of the six (6) with either elite EV or elite LA.  If you’re paying attention, you know which one that is.

Do you have a guess yet?  No…well, let’s keep going with the clues!

HardHit%

“Hard-Hit” fly balls = more HRs.  “Hard-Hit” line drives = higher BA and OPS.  For trivia, remember this is about POWER so we’re more interested in the former, but it goes without saying the ability to do both is the best scenario all-around.

A “hard-hit” ball is defined as a batted ball with an EV of 95 mph or higher.  The HardHit% then simply shows the percentage of batted balls that qualify as a hard hit.

I set my HardHit% threshold at 49%.  Again, that’s a subjective number but I’ll note only 30 players met that criterion last season.  So, that qualifies as “elite” to me.

Let’s take a look at HardHit% for the 30 with > 200 PA in 2024 and a HR/PA bar at 3.50%.

• Eight (8) of those 30 currently have HardHit% > 49%
• Four (4) of the eight (8) are also elite in Barrel% and EV

Our guy is close, but not quite elite in HardHit%.

OBP

For On Base Percentage, we want players who are > .330.

• 12 of the 30 currently have OBP > .330
• All 12 are also part of the 18 with HR/PA > 3.5%

Our guy IS one of the 12.

SLG

For Slugging Percentage, we want players who are > .450.

• We also find 12 (not exactly the same 12) of the 30 currently have SLG > .450
• Again, all 12 are also part of the 18 with HR/PA > 3.5%

Our guy IS one of the 12.

OPS

For On Base Plus Slugging, we want players who are > .800.

• 8 of the 30 currently have OPS > .800
• All 8 are also part of the 18 with HR/PA > 3.5%

Our guy IS one of the 12.

Other Clues

 Our player has:

• Elite Contact Rate (> 80%) in 2022 and 2023, but NOT 2024
• Increased his BB% over the past three seasons (9.7%, 0% and now 18.1%)
• Also seen his K% increase from 15.7% (2022) and 13.8% (2023) to 17.2 currently
• Increased his FB rate to almost 55% and reduced his GB rate to 26% – both career bests
• A Barrel rate of almost 15% – another career best (we already knew it was elite, so this is a bonus clue)
• Seen his max EV decline from 111.3 (2022) to 110.1 (2023) to 108.1 in 2024

In Summary

Are you overwhelmed by the data?  We’ve covered a lot of ground.  Let’s review.

Our player:

• Plays virtually every day
• Surpasses the HR/PA bar > 3.50% in each of the last three seasons – currently highest of his career
• has elite in Barrel% and LA in 2024, but not EV
• Has a HardHit% just under the 49% threshold
• Has Elite OBP, SLG and OPS, despite a drop in Contact Rate
• Is enjoying a career best BB% (Good) yet seeing a bump in his K% (Not Good)
• Is generating a higher FB% and lower GB% (no doubt leading to the higher HR/PA)

Quite a mixed bag here isn’t it?  So, who is our mystery player?

Don’t forget, you have until Monday evening to provide your guess in the comments below.  I’ll reveal the answer at that time and identify our contest winner.

Good luck…and remember, NO CHEATING!

When you come to the Razzball site, you can find me on both the baseball and football sides.  Just look for “The Lineup Builder” and you’ve found me!  Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret.  I’m now on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).

Until next time, my friends.